Kansas/Missouri 2026 Preview
In federal races, I'm going to start adding a final IE tally to preview items to give you an idea of how much has been spent boosting or opposing each candidate. If no IE tally is included in a race item, I didn't find any independent expenditures filed with the FEC in that race. That will only feature in the MO-01 preview item here, but will show up a lot more in the Michigan preview. With that said, here we go! Kansas first, then Missouri.
(I know I said the PAC Tracker would be next, but Kansas and Missouri were ready before it was, so they got published first; the MO-01 IE numbers are current to date and will match the PAC Tracker out shortly.)
Kansas
KS-Gov
Ethan Corson vs. Cindy Holscher vs. Curt Skoog
I sort of have to do this one, because it frames the state of Kansas Democratic politics as a whole and provides context for the rest of these races. I’ll keep it as short as possible: state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher are the leading contenders for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, with Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog rounding out the pack. Corson has leaned heavily on support from labor unions and popular outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, while Holscher has struck a more populist tone, calling for a data center moratorium (perhaps to the chagrin of Kansas unions, who are taking a hard line in favor of data centers.) Holscher appears to be the favorite despite an intensely personal and negative campaign from the Corson/Kelly camp, jumping out to a wide early lead in a June poll. In a sign, I think, that the Corson/Kelly camp thinks they’re losing, the governor is now accusing Holscher of threatening to make the governor’s then-private divorce public—but with one small problem: the text messages in which Holscher made the alleged threat don’t support the governor’s version of events, or the governor’s interpretation of the text, at all. I highly recommend reading this article from the Kansas City Star in full to get a taste of the hardball that seems to be the name of the game in Kansas Democratic politics in 2026.
KS-Lt. Gov.
Renee Duxler vs. Jennifer Bacani McKenney vs. Kelechi “KC” Ohaebosim
Kansas holds separate primaries for governor and lieutenant governor, then elects them as a ticket in November—sometimes called a shotgun wedding primary, this system is also used by other states including Pennsylvania. However, candidates often run on tickets in the primary, which is the case here. Salina social worker Renee Duxler is Corson’s running mate; Fredonia physician Jennifer Bacani McKenney is running with Skoog; and Wichita state Rep. Kelechi “KC” Ohaebosim is running with Holscher. This could play out as a pure proxy for the gubernatorial race, or it could have geographic dividing lines—all three gubernatorial candidates are from Johnson County, but none of their running mates are. Salina is a small city in central Kansas; Fredonia is a rural town in southeast Kansas; and Wichita, as the state’s largest city, is a more useful geographic base by far than either Salina or southeast Kansas.
KS-03
Kansas City, Kansas and suburbs | Harris+4.1
Sharice Davids (i) vs. Sarah Preu
Rep. Sharice Davids won this seat in 2018, when it had just voted Democratic for Hillary Clinton after a long streak of voting Republican. Since then, her district—anchored by the affluent Kansas City suburbs of Johnson County, including cities like Olathe, Lenexa, and Overland Park—has gotten bluer despite Kansas Republicans’ halfhearted attempt at a gerrymander by cracking Kansas City proper in the post-2020 redistricting cycle. Johnson County is now blue enough on its own that cracking KCK and adding more rural eastern Kansas in its place still doesn’t turn the 3rd red. Nobody seems to have told Davids, who is still a generally moderate Democrat despite Republicans having largely given up on taking her out. That’s the impetus for Sarah Preu’s quixotic primary run. Preu, a tech and communications professional, wants to abolish ICE, enact an arms embargo on Israel, and provide single-payer health care. Preu also faults Davids for taking quite a bit of corporate PAC and AIPAC money, as both have become increasingly toxic to a restive Democratic base. She will almost certainly lose, but her performance will be a good barometer of how angry primary voters are in one of the many blue islands dotting red middle America.
HD-10
SE Lawrence | Harris+54.8
Suzanne Wikle (i) vs. TJ Campsey
Unremarkable liberal freshman state Rep. Suzanne Wikle faces a surprisingly well-funded challenge from activist, brewer, and self-described communist TJ Campsey, who has raised and spent more than $25,000, according to Kansas campaign finance filings. While Wikle has lockstep support from the local Democratic establishment, Campsey has also won over a couple of union locals to his side. Campsey touts his plan for a “Democratic Bill of Rights,” including protections against gerrymandering and union-busting, as well as what he says is his stronger opposition to the GOP and MAGA—though he walked back a comment in which he said Wikle was “giving ground to fascists.” This district is fertile ground for a leftist challenger on paper, situated in the deep-blue college town of Lawrence.
HD-31
SE KCK | Harris+35.9
Paul Davidson vs. Emily Hane vs. Eli Woody IV (vs. Christian Ramirez)
This race was probably Wyandotte County Commissioner Christian Ramirez’s to lose…until he dropped out, citing health challenges. Now it’s down to the three other candidates, though Ramirez remains on the ballot.
First, nonprofit professional Emily Hane is endorsed by outgoing incumbent Louis Ruiz. Hane supports targeted tax hikes to raise revenue and opposes property tax cuts because property taxes fund essential services, which is nice to hear from a red-state Democrat (and frankly from any Democrat these days.) She also makes a point of noting she supports trans rights.
Next is Paul Davidson, whose main issue is a property tax cut. Dude, wrong party! The rest of his platform and bio are fine, but a monomaniacal focus on cutting taxes for homeowners is worth rejecting.
Finally, there’s teacher Eli Woody, who also wants to cut property taxes but has a more well-rounded focus including abortion and LGBT rights, which was enough to earn him an endorsement from Planned Parenthood’s political arm.
HD-32
East-central KCK | Harris+40.5
Pam Curtis (i) vs. Marco Medina Diaz
Marco Medina Diaz is a phantom candidate who hasn’t raised or spent anything, so Pam Curtis should coast to reelection.
HD-55
Central Topeka | Harris+23.5
Tobias Schlingensiepen (i) vs. Zinaia Armstead
Zinaia Armstead is another phantom candidate, leaving Tobias Schlingensiepen in the same position as his colleague Pam Curtis.
HD-56
Southern Topeka and suburbs | Harris+9.4
Virgil Weigel (i) vs. Braeden Curwick
State Rep. Virgil Weigel has been a quiet member of the Democratic minority since 2017. Braeden Curwick is a Teamster and local Democratic activist who offers a younger alternative to Weigel; he’s won over an area Teamsters local as well as Indivisible Topeka. Neither Curwick nor Weigel has raised or spent much of anything.
HD-83
SE Wichita | Harris+17.7
Henry Helgerson (i) vs. Brandon Whipple
Former Wichita Mayor Brandon Whipple is looking for a return to politics after losing reelection as mayor of Kansas’s largest city in 2023 to Libertarian Lily Wu. (Seriously, what went on there?) To get there, he’s challenging state Rep. Henry Helgerson, a somewhat moderate but mostly reliable member of the Democratic minority who has been in and out of the legislature since 1983. (Whipple is light on policy and mostly talks about Trump.) The most interesting part of this fight is that unions seem to be taking the same heavy-handed approach to all primary challengers as they are to Holscher—including an established figure like Whipple, who previously served in the Kansas House before winning his single term as mayor of light-red Wichita.
HD-84
Central Wichita | Harris+42.2
Ford Carr (i) vs. Bonita Gooch
State Rep. Ford Carr has found himself in hot water for getting heated with his colleagues in an incident in downtown Wichita, during which he allegedly directed a torrent of verbal abuse at Wichita Councilman Brandon Johnson and shoved Helgerson. Carr says the issue is about racism and a chemical spill contaminating groundwater in his district; Topeka Republicans have moved to discipline him; Topeka Democrats have shifted uncomfortably in their seats and tried to ignore the whole thing. It’s all very weird.
That’s the backdrop for his challenge from Bonita Gooch, the publisher and owner of Wichita’s Black newspaper The Community Voice. Carr claims Gooch, also the daughter of a former state senator, has a personal vendetta over his criticism of The Community Voice’s coverage, which Gooch unsurprisingly denies. Gooch has gotten some labor support as well, cashing checks from the Missouri-Kansas SEIU and the Wichita AFL-CIO.
HD-89
NE Wichita | Harris+23.2
Carol Brewer vs. Jalon Britton
Nonprofit leader Carol Brewer, the daughter of former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, faces educator Jalon Britton. Britton and Brewer both want to focus generally on the cost of living and are light on policy. Britton has gotten checks from the same two union federations as Gooch, and would seem to be labor’s pick.
Missouri
MO-01
St. Louis and suburbs | Harris+57.6
Wesley Bell (i) vs. Cori Bush
Total IEs: $3,653,488.86
Pro-Bell: $986,770.76
Anti-Bell: $48,262.36
Anti-Bush: $2,552,149.42
Pro-Bush: $73,406.03
Democratic socialist Rep. Cori Bush was destined for a tough primary challenge from the moment she unseated Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020, and it was mostly luck that she got a pathetic challenge from a state senator best known for allegations of sexual misconduct in her first reelection bid in 2022. In 2024, her detractors—led by AIPAC—found their candidate in St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who had been elected as a progressive reformer but governed otherwise. AIPAC spent about $8.5 million to boost Bell and attack Bush in 2024, and many thought Bush was toast, especially after the landslide defeat of fellow Squad member Jamaal Bowman in New York earlier that year and a string of negative headlines. Instead, Bush only lost to Bell by five and a half points and almost immediately began preparing for a rematch…as did AIPAC, which has dropped more than three million into pro-Bell and anti-Bush ads this cycle, making it the only August race to get AIPAC’s official attention other than MI-Sen.
Bell, for his part, has done…absolutely nothing to insulate himself from charges that he is an AIPAC stooge and fake progressive, racking up a pro-Israel voting record and doing little of note besides that. Bush is pouncing on that—and a dramatic shift in the national mood in favor of the left and against Democrats like Bell—as she hopes to claw her way back into Congress, even if she still has some hard feelings towards the rest of the Squad. DSA has gone all out to bring back one of its earliest congressmembers, and other progressive groups have increasingly begun spending here in the home stretch, sensing an opportunity to knock Bell out and add to the narrative of progressive momentum sweeping the country. It’s now just a question of whether Bush has made up enough ground since 2024 to elbow her way back into Congress—just as forcefully and unabashedly as she did in 2020—or whether Bell has managed to entrench himself as an incumbent.
SD-04
SW St. Louis, Clayton, Richmond Heights | Harris+49.6
Steve Butz vs. Gina Mitten
State Rep. Steve Butz is a nightmarish conservative Democrat who progressives have tried to turf out of the legislature in the past, most notably for his opposition to abortion. Former state Rep. Gina Mitten is making abortion rights front and center in this primary, as she should—because someone like Butz is totally unacceptable in a safe blue district. Unions are mostly backing Mitten, with the exception of normally conservative police, fire, and building trades unions, while Butz draws on lavish support from business and conservative PACs to fund most of his campaign. (Outgoing state Sen. Karla May is supporting Mitten, thankfully.)
SD-14
Northern St. Louis County | Harris+52.7
John Bowman vs. Shante Duncan vs. Joseph Palm vs. Raychel Proudie
Four candidates have piled in to replace outgoing state Sen. Brian Williams, who is running for St. Louis County Executive. The best-known are John Bowman, a former state representative and union activist who went on to lead the St. Louis County NAACP, and Raychel Proudie, a current state representative from Ferguson. There’s also Joseph Palm, a former Biden HHS official and local Democratic activist with a deeply weird website. Just look at this screenshot, man, what the fuck.
Finally, there’s nonprofit founder and real estate agent Shante Duncan to round out the field.
Unions have split between Bowman, a longtime union activist, and Proudie, a particularly outspoken member of the Democratic minority in Jefferson City, as have corporate and trade association PACs. Bowman has framed his run as a redemption arc, not shying away from the scandal that ended his original career in politics way back in 2008: pleading to a misdemeanor bank fraud charge and resigning from the state House after, he says, getting hoodwinked by a con artist working at his local bank. Since then, Bowman has remained involved in the community; his stint as St. Louis County NAACP president began more than a decade after his resignation. No ideological divides are readily apparent—both Bowman and Proudie are pro-abortion, pro-union, and pro-gun control, for example.
HD-28
Raytown, KCMO | Harris+33
Donna Barnes (i) vs. Mike Sager
Long-ago disgraced former state Rep. Mike Sager ran unsuccessfully for this seat against Donna Barnes in 2024, losing 3:1. He doesn’t have a website and is at this point basically a perennial candidate.
HD-66
Bellefontaine Neighbors, Spanish Lake | Harris+74.2
Marlene Terry (i) vs. Theresa Hester
Former Bellefontaine Neighbors Ald. Theresa Hester, a UFCW union activist, has won over the state AFL-CIO in her challenge to state Rep. Marlene Terry. Terry is on the outs with her Democratic colleagues for her vote to back Missouri Republicans’ controversial school voucher program, which led Democrats to strip her of her committee seats last year. She has since signed on to more nightmarish Republican policy, like a plan to eliminate the state’s income tax and replace it with increased (regressive) sales taxes, and is wholly deserving of this primary challenge, Hester’s ties to the Mosleys (see below) aside.
HD-68
Florissant | Harris+48.9
Kem Smith (i) vs. Janay Mosley
State Rep. Kem Smith narrowly beat Janay Mosley in 2024 for the seat of Janay’s father, Jay Mosley, one of several members of the St. Louis Mosley dynasty, a conservative and grimy political family that is big in northern St. Louis County politics. Smith is once again backed by organized labor and the Democratic establishment (and they’re right to do so), while Janay has her family’s machine.
HD-73
Berkeley, Ferguson | Harris+61.4
Henry Iwenofu vs. Kennedy Moore vs. Mike Person vs. Demetrius Upchurch Sr.
This race is probably community organizer Kennedy Moore’s to lose. Moore, an organizer with Abortion Action Missouri, is endorsed by Raychel Proudie, the outgoing incumbent, as well as by a variety of labor organizations up to and including the Missouri AFL-CIO and progressive groups like Our Revolution and the Collective PAC. Demetrius Upchurch Sr. and Henry Iwenofu are running shoestring campaigns that haven’t seemed to break through, and former state Rep. Mike Person is a perennial candidate at this point, though probably the greatest threat to Moore due to his name recognition from his time in office and his many unsuccessful runs.
HD-74
North-central St. Louis County | Harris+66.3
Marla Smith (i) vs. Maria Miller
Maria Miller is a phantom candidate with almost no money, so Marla Smith is a solid bet for another term.
HD-75
Florissant, Black Jack | Harris+50.9
Chanel Mosley (i) vs. Chris Brown
It’s hard to find anything about Morris “Chris” Brown, other than that he survived a legal challenge meant to knock him off the ballot. However, Chanel Mosley is a member of the Mosley dynasty who was one of only two Democrats to vote “present” rather than “no” on a bill banning transgender healthcare for minors, so here’s hoping something weird happens.
HD-79
Central St. Louis | Harris+79.1
Helen Bailey vs. Rachel D’Souza vs. Adam Hopkins
St. Louis Housing Authority official Rachel D’Souza is the apparent frontrunner for this open seat, with a coalition of endorsers ranging from the Missouri AFL-CIO to Our Revolution and a clear financial lead. However, Helen Bailey, the daughter of former St. Louis Ald. Velma Bailey, has a bit of money to work with, and Adam Hopkins is endorsed by outgoing incumbent state Rep. LaKeySha Bosley. Like many Democrats in red-state super-minorities, policy differences are hard to suss out because every candidate is running on mostly platitudes and “I will oppose the deranged shit our Republican government is doing,” but unions and progressive groups clearly have the most faith in D’Souza.
HD-81
Southern St. Louis | Harris+44.1
Aaron Clite vs. Tony Kirchner vs. James Lappe
Personal injury lawyer Aaron Clite and former Ald. Jimmy Lappe are the two main candidates for this seat; retired cop Tony Kirchner, a prior conservative candidate for local office in St. Louis, is a bit of a perennial candidate at this point. Both Lappe and Clite have a good amount of money to work with, but between Lappe proudly branding himself a progressive, most unions breaking for Lappe, and Clite getting a $1,000 donation from a charter school PAC, I’m confident saying Lappe is the better choice.
HD-83
Richmond Heights, Brentwood | Harris+38.4
Ray Reed (i) vs. David Dimmitt
Young first-term state Rep. Ray Reed faces a stiff challenge from Brentwood Mayor David Dimmitt, as Reed fends off criticism for his apparent overuse of legislative reimbursements for travel. Reed has a lot of his legislative colleagues and labor unions in his corner, as well as some progressive groups, while Dimmitt draws on support from a lot of suburban city councilpeople and mayors.
HD-85
Northwoods to Dellwood | Harris+83.9
Yolonda Fountain Henderson (i) vs. Yolonda Fortson
This is a partial rematch of 2022, when Yolonda Fountain Henderson, an ally of the Mosley dynasty then and now, beat progressive activist Yolonda “Yonnee” Fortson 53-34 for what was then an open seat. Fortson is back for a rematch and, based on campaign finance filings, has some tacit labor support—a PAC funded by a group of St. Louis-area labor unions accounts for her single largest donation. Dellwood Mayor Reggie Jones is another donor, suggesting local electeds aren’t uniformly happy with the incumbent either.
HD-99
Clayton, Ladue | Harris+37.9
Boris Abadzhyan vs. Sidney Clark vs. Nathan Mai-Lombardo vs. Tori Schafer
Progressive ACLU attorney Tori Schafer is one of two frontrunners for this deep-blue seat in St. Louis’s affluent inner suburbs, with a long list of labor and elected endorsements, but she’ll have to get past Ferguson zoning official Nathan Mai-Lombardo, the pick of police and fire unions and the outgoing incumbent, Ian Mackey. (Mai-Lombardo needs to fix his Google results, because the first one is a news story about his former employer, the suburb of Berkeley, suing him for financial mismanagement and unauthorized expenses.) Olivette city councilor Sidney Clark and perennial candidate Boris Abadzhyan round out the field.
Jackson County Executive
Manny Abarca vs. Bill Baird vs. Stacy Lake vs. Ryan Meyer vs. Holmes Osborne vs. Dan Tarwater
The race to lead Jackson County, which contains most of Kansas City and its Missouri suburbs, is a mess in many ways. It’s the first in quite some time without an incumbent, after voters successfully recalled longtime county executive Frank White, previously a legendary Kansas City Royals second baseman, in 2025 in the wake of years of fighting over sharp tax increases—fueled in part by the controversial outsourcing of property assessments to a third-party vendor, Tyler Technologies—and a failed stadium deal; interim replacement Phil LeVota ultimately opted against seeking a full term after initially campaigning for the job.
Let’s start with who not to root for. First up, there’s former Jackson County Legislator Dan Tarwater, a previous subject of a primary preview and a longtime conservative Democrat; he’s perhaps best known for being quietly anti-abortion, but was generally one of the least reliable members of the county legislature’s Democratic majority throughout his decades representing a southern Kansas City district. Then there’s Manny Abarca, a county legislator who was recently removed by his colleagues as chair of the body, either due to his being a walking, talking scandal or due to his accusing his colleagues of soliciting bribes, depending on who you ask. And there’s financial planner Holmes Osborne, whose support for LeVota’s current plan of massive retroactive property tax refunds sounds just plain fiscally irresponsible and is already having disastrous consequences for Jackson County school districts. (When talking about lawsuits brought by the harmed school districts, Osborne says “I’m on team taxpayer.” I guess as opposed to Team Student, because fuck them kids?)
The moderate liberal frontrunner in the race is former Lee’s Summit Mayor Bill Baird, who has the bulk of labor and business support. Baird is, at least, not loudly committing to tax refunds, and seems wary of the impact they’d have on local governments and school districts. Attorney Stacy Lake is the likeliest progressive choice here; Lake held White to a single-digit primary victory in 2022, and wants to address the property tax situation by firing Tyler Technologies, bringing assessment back in-house, and auditing Jackson County government. Lake has backing from Abortion Action Missouri, local teachers’ and transit workers’ unions, and some Democratic clubs. Ryan Meyer is the most overtly progressive candidate but seems to be going absolutely nowhere.
St. Louis County Executive
Angela Walton Mosley vs. Brian Williams vs. Jake Zimmerman
State Sen. Brian Williams was the first candidate to enter this race, originally planning to challenge County Executive Sam Page, whose utter inability to work with the County Council (and their utter refusal to work with him) has become the defining story of St. Louis County politics. Page then announced he would retire in December, as he faces an indictment for improper electioneering that he says is politically motivated by the Republican state AG’s office. That opened things up for more candidates to get in—and none from the pro-Page camp of county politics did. Instead, County Assessor Jake Zimmerman, who had previously challenged Page from the left in 2020, entered the race—and then, at the filing deadline, Zimmerman got an underhanded assist, as state Sen. Angela Walton Mosley entered the race. The matriarch of the Mosley dynasty shares a base in heavily Black North St. Louis County with Williams, and it stands to reason that she will siphon more votes from Williams than Zimmerman—which might be why Mosley has largely avoided campaigning and was making pro-Zimmerman posts on social media prior to launching her own run. It leaves a bad taste in our mouths that Zimmerman might win because an ally ran as a spoiler to split the Black vote—but that’s what the only publicly released poll, put out by the Zimmerman camp, says might happen. Both Zimmerman and Williams are generally vague on policy, making it hard to find ideological dividing lines; there is, at least, Zimmerman’s skepticism of police drones and government chatbots.