Rhode Island Primary Preview 2026

Wednesday primaries. Absurd. I hate it. Never do this again, Rhode Island.

Anyway, the nation's smallest state is packed to the brim with primaries for statewide office and state legislature, so there's a lot for us to walk through—starting with the most endangered governor in the United States and the primary he seems destined to lose.

I was aided in my Rhode Island analysis by political analyst Eli Spencer Heyman; you can read his work here.

Governor

Dan McKee (i) vs. Helena Buonanno Foulkes

Incumbent Gov. Dan McKee is pretty close to a dead man walking. After ascending to the governorship in 2021 after the confirmation of his predecessor Gina Raimondo to be U.S. Secretary of Commerce, McKee began gearing up to run for a full term in 2022. Former CVS executive Helena Buonanno Foulkes narrowly lost to him that year, in a race where McKee only survived because the anti-McKee vote was badly split among multiple alternatives. Now Foulkes, a moderate Democrat, has the race to herself—and McKee, also a moderate, has little he can do to convince voters he’s worth another four years without major policy differences to set himself apart from Foulkes. Additionally, McKee is weaker than he was four years ago due to the failure of the Washington Bridge, a crucial road connection between Providence and East Providence that links the western and eastern portions of the state; the saga has involved allegations of a coverup, cronyism, and decades of neglect leading to the emergency closure of the westbound span of the bridge in 2023. At this point, years of worsened traffic and aggravating detours have left voters in this small state in a very sour mood, and a steady drip-drip-drip of unflattering stories about the McKee administration’s handling of the bridge crisis has left the governor firmly associated with the problem in voters’ minds. McKee has trailed Foulkes in every poll, usually by humiliating double-digit margins, as voters seem to be ignoring or shrugging off McKee’s attacks on Foulkes’s history at CVS relating to the company’s role in the opioid epidemic. Liberal groups and unions are largely sticking with McKee as the devil they know (though local party activists and officials aren’t), but precisely nobody is enthusiastic about or confident in the governor, so Foulkes seems likely to get at least one term as governor on the strength of Not Being Dan McKee.

U.S. Senate

Jack Reed (i) vs. Connor Burbridge vs. Luis Daniel Muñoz

Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is a safe bet for another term. Badly underfunded leftist Connor Burbridge will serve as a gauge of how Rhode Island Democrats are feeling, while doctor and former independent gubernatorial candidate Luis Daniel Muñoz is, I guess, there for people who prefer for their protest votes to be totally inscrutable.

Lieutenant Governor

Sabina Matos (i) vs. Sue AnderBois vs. Cynthia Armour Coyne vs. Xay Khamsyvoravong vs. Ross McCurdy

Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos is, like McKee, suffering to this day for a 2023 scandal. Matos’s scandal was that a worker on her campaign committed ludicrous petition fraud in the course of Matos’s failed bid to represent Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District in that year’s special election to succeed David Cicilline, derailing her at-the-time frontrunning bid to represent the state’s eastern half in Congress and saddling the incumbent with an air of corruption and haplessness she hasn’t been able to shake. Smelling blood, four different candidates decided to take a crack at Matos this year.

The strongest of the four is Newport Councilman Xay Khamsyvoravong, who is the establishment’s apparent favorite to replace Matos and the race's fundraising leader. Khamsyvoravong has the backing of the most local Democratic committees in this race, as well as the endorsement of Gabe Amo, the winner of that 2023 congressional special election, and outgoing AG Peter Neronha. Khamsyvoravong has been competitive with Matos in polling, but polling has also revealed that most voters have no idea about the LG race, which…yeah, that tracks.

Former state Sen. Cindy Coyne is a former Rhode Island State Trooper from Barrington backed by some conservative Democratic former colleagues and law enforcement unions, marking her as the most conservative option here.

Providence City Councilor Sue AnderBois is the progressive pick in this race, counting endorsements from the bulk of the state’s progressive state legislators and Providence city councilors, as well as a few progressive groups and Democratic town committees. She’s the best outcome and also an underdog according to the polls, though given that most voters are undecided in those same polls, late deciders could tip the race to anyone. AnderBois would give progressives a statewide foothold and megaphone, and put her first in line to succeed whoever wins the gubernatorial primary (very likely Foulkes) should they resign, die, or take another office.

Veteran Ross McCurdy should place fifth. Also, his entire website is AI slop. Jesus Christ, man, have more respect for the office you’re running for and the voters you’re seeking to represent.

Each of Khamsyvoravong, Coyne, and AnderBois has raised enough to make a splash with voters, and each has a distinct geographic base (Newport, Bristol County, and lefty Providence, respectively.) With polling showing undecideds so high, that could foreseeably work to Matos's advantage as the incumbent or to Khamsyvoravong's advantage as the best-funded candidate. Matos is in better shape than Gov. McKee, but she's still at serious risk of joining him in defeat.

Attorney General

Kim Ahern vs. Keith Hoffmann vs. Jason Knight vs. Joseph Solomon Jr.

There’s one clearly conservative candidate for Rhode Island AG: state Rep. Joseph Solomon Jr., a social conservative and 90s-style tough-on-crime prosecutor. Thankfully, polls have consistently found him in third place, only ahead of liberal state Rep. Jason Knight, a criminal defense attorney and gun control advocate. According to polling, this is a two-way race between two alumni of the office of retiring AG Peter Neronha, Kim Ahern and Keith Hoffmann.

Neronha, a staunch liberal and regular foe of the Trump administration in court, is backing Hoffmann as his desired successor. Progressive and liberal state legislators are largely following Neronha’s lead and backing Hoffmann, as are some national figures like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former DC AG Karl Racine; meanwhile, Ahern is backed by a more establishment-leaning set of state elected officials. Both Ahern and Hoffmann have won over local Democratic Party committees from around the state.

Ahern is attacking Hoffmann because he’s never prosecuted a major criminal case, something Hoffmann freely acknowledges; as a lawyer myself, this makes me immediately dislike Ahern, because a state AG is not simply a top prosecutor. They are the state’s top lawyer, representing the state in civil as well as criminal cases—and every state has a busy docket of civil litigation on issues big and small. You probably wouldn’t hire a prosecutor to represent you in a contract dispute or a land use case, but states get into those all the time. Ahern is appealing to the lowest common denominator here, and it sucks.

Meanwhile, Hoffmann is attacking Ahern for her stewardship of the state’s Cannabis Control Commission, which under her leadership failed to permit a single new dispensary after the state’s liberalization of marijuana laws in 2022. She claims she was serving as a firewall against “know-a-guy corruption,” which I guess is true in a sense—if there’s no possible way to get a permit, there’s also no possible way to corrupt the permitting process—but also reveals Ahern is, at best, so incompetent she couldn’t discern between good and bad permit applications, and, at worst, determined to rig the process in favor of existing medical dispensaries who donated extensively to the governor who appointed her, as critics allege. I’m going to be real with you: every new fact I learn about Kim Ahern makes me like her less as both a lawyer and a politician.

Providence Mayor

Brett Smiley (i) vs. David Morales

Brett Smiley is a bog-standard big-city Democratic mayor: fiscally conservative, pro-business, and a firm believer that the solution to every policy problem must involve cops somehow. In other words, he’s terrible. He’s also vulnerable due to a variety of factors, including widely-criticized snowstorm responses and steep property tax increases.

Democratic socialist state Rep. David Morales is everything Smiley isn’t—young (27), progressive, energizing, free of corporate influence. (It must be noted that Rhode Island DSA made the galaxy-brained decision to cut off all of its elected officials and pursue a dirty break from the Democratic Party, which has resulted in zero wins for Rhode Island DSA and, so far, zero damage to the careers of the elected officials they cut off; however, Morales is still a socialist.) Morales is running on a platform focused on housing affordability: rent stabilization, public development, and finding revenue sources other than residential property taxes (ranging from commercial property taxes to state aid to real estate transaction taxes.) He also wants to focus on street safety and pedestrian improvements, as well as expanded and improved public transit through partnerships with the state, which handles all public transit through the Rhode Island Public Transit Authority. Morales has won over some national progressive support as well, from figures like Bernie Sanders and organizations like the Working Families Party; he’s also convinced a few large, left-leaning unions to dump Smiley in favor of him. Comparisons to Zohran Mamdani are facile and simplistic, and yet this race lends itself to them—Morales is, like Mamdani, a young democratic socialist first elected to office in 2020 via a successful primary challenge to an incumbent Democratic state legislator, and like Mamdani, he’s seeking to defeat an opponent backed to the hilt by centrist and conservative Democrats in order to tilt the balance of power in an often fractious City Hall.

Oddly, Morales is also backed by former Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza, who wasn’t exactly a progressive in office—and it’s through Elorza that we have a publicly available poll of this race, as a group headed by Elorza surveyed 310 likely Democratic primary voters in late August and found Morales leading Smiley 48%-38%. If that poll holds up tonight, Providence will join New York, DC, and Seattle (as well as potentially Los Angeles) in electing a democratic socialist as mayor.

SD-05

Providence: Federal Hill, Mount Pleasant | Harris+50.7

Sam Bell (i) vs. Cameron Moquin vs. Theodore Newcomer

The Rhode Island Senate was upended by the death of conservative Senate President Dominick Ruggerio, kicking off a surprise leadership contest that briefly promised the possibility of a more progressive and open leadership model. Then, state Sen. Valarie Lawson cobbled together an alliance of conservatives and machine liberals to keep progressives out of state Senate leadership, beating out challenges from more progressive state Sens. Ryan Pearson (for Senate President) and Alana DiMario (who ran against Lawson’s conservative running mate, Frank Ciccone, for majority leader.) Incumbent Sam Bell is a member of the progressive bloc in the Senate who somewhat surprisingly backed Lawson, and has lucked out this year by avoiding a serious challenge (perhaps a reflection of the reality that in this very progressive Providence district, a progressive incumbent will always be favored barring a scandal.) Neither realtor Theodore Newcomer nor gadfly Cameron Moquin poses a serious threat to Bell. However, battles between Lawson’s majority bloc and the progressive minority will feature again and again in state Senate primaries.

SD-08

Northeastern Pawtucket | Harris+25.9

Lori Urso (i) vs. Gena Felix

State Sen. Lori Urso was effectively appointed to this seat after state Sen. Sandra Cano resigned unexpectedly in 2024, letting Urso bypass primary voters for a full two-year term. That always rankled Pawtucket progressives, for whom Cano had at least been a sometimes-ally; Urso was very much not that. Now that they’ve finally got their first-ever chance to face Lori Urso in an election, progressives are backing nurse Gena Felix, the twin sister of progressive Pawtucket state Rep. Leonela Felix (more on her later.) Felix represents the first of several chances to shift the balance of power in the state Senate to the left, away from Lawson’s conservative-moderate coalition and towards actual, reliable Democrats who see the legislature’s role as a policy laboratory, not a bottleneck. Urso is the only member of the Lawson bloc facing a primary challenge this year.

Urso has sat on most of her campaign cash for some reason, allowing Felix to outspend her over the summer (in extremely small amounts) despite Urso having around ten times the money available. Confidence or arrogance? We'll find out tonight.

SD-13

Newport, Jamestown | Harris+41.4

Dawn Euer (i) vs. Angela Lima

State Sen. Dawn Euer is another member of the Senate’s progressive bloc, but her primary challenger isn’t as clearly aligned with big business and the GOP as most challengers to Senate progressives. Former Newport City Councilor Angela Lima is running as a fellow progressive—though a message of generational change and throwing the bums out doesn’t exactly land as well against Euer, a 47-year-old first elected in 2017 who doesn’t always go along with the Senate’s conservative leadership, as it might against many of her colleagues. Euer has been able to outraise and outspend Lima, aided by the fact that the groups you’d expect to fund a primary challenge to a progressive senator like Euer don't seem all that interested in Lima, indicating she might at least be a real enough progressive to scare those people off—though Lima did win over the state AFL-CIO, which Euer credibly says is petty retaliation from Lawson’s camp.

SD-15

Southwestern Pawtucket and northeastern Providence | Harris+53.8

Meghan Kallman (i) vs. Vanessa Lopez

State Sen. Meghan Kallman is another progressive who didn’t go along with Lawson’s liberal-conservative coalition idea, and she’s getting a primary in retaliation. The Rhode Island League of Businesses is a shady, anonymous right-wing coalition of business owners who seek to elect a more conservative legislature through meddling in Democratic primaries and brazen circumvention of campaign finance laws via the establishment of dozens of PACs to split donations between in order to keep each individual donation below the reportable limit, and their first candidate of several this cycle is small business owner Vanessa Lopez. Lopez is anti-abortion, anti-gun control, and fiscally conservative, and backed by all the corresponding PACs. Lopez is pretty obviously a de facto Republican who knows that her district would never elect an actual Republican in a million years, and it would be very, very bad if she were able to unseat Kallman, a progressive and fierce critic of ICE.

SD-19

Cumberland, Lincoln | Harris+8.7

Ryan Pearson (i) vs. James Metivier

Ryan Pearson was the senator who threw his hat in the ring to challenge Lawson’s liberal-conservative coalition, so of course he’s also getting a retaliatory primary. Cumberland Town Councilor James Metivier is another very obvious Republican: pro-gun, anti-tax, pro-deregulation, backed by the League of Businesses. He’s also been able to raise and spend competitively with Pearson, and this is a district that should be relatively favorable to a DINO like Metivier, situated in the exurbs between Providence and Woonsocket, compared to more liberal territory in Providence or along the coast.

SD-36

North Kingstown to Narragansett, Block Island | Harris+20.8

Alana DiMario (i) vs. Mark Mesrobian

Mark Mesrobian is a cousin of state Sen. David Tikoian, one of the leaders of the conservative faction in the state Senate alongside Frank Ciccone, so it’s no surprise that both Tikoian and Ciccone appeared at Mesrobian’s campaign launch—especially when you consider who he’s running against. State Sen. Alana DiMario had the temerity to suggest that maybe Democratic Senate leadership shouldn’t have conservatives at all, so she challenged Ciccone for Majority Leader against Lawson’s wishes. She fell short, but earned the everlasting ire of Senate conservatives in the process. Mesrobian, a “serial entrepreneur,” “sums up his platform in a single word: Business.”

Sorry, sorry, I think that sound you just heard might have been me groaning in pain.

Anyway, DiMario is a solid liberal legislator who has pushed to tax the rich, enact an assault weapons ban, and better fund social services throughout the state, which is definitely part of why Mesrobian has been able to raise so much money for his campaign—he’s outraised and outspent DiMario from start to finish, also aided by the League of Businesses. DiMario’s saving grace, besides incumbency, might be that this district is made up of liberal, touristy coastal towns, rather than the more conservative suburbs and exurbs ringing Providence to the north, south, and west, where the legislature’s conservatives tend to do best; however, she’s definitely in danger tonight, and a Mesrobian victory would be very, very bad for Rhode Island.

HD-01

Providence: College Hill | Harris+78.8

Edith Ajello (i) vs. Michael Garman

Progressive state Rep. Edith Ajello will likely be able to dispatch progressive political operative Michael Garman in this progressive Providence district, but it's not a sure thing. Garman was the 2024 campaign manager for democratic socialist state Rep. Enrique Sanchez, and is endorsed by his old boss Sanchez, Sam Bell, and a couple of progressive organizations including the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Garman has also raised and spent enough money for a real campaign, and this is a very left-leaning district centered on Brown University.

HD-07

Providence: Mount Pleasant, Elmhurst | Harris+39.7

Jo-Ann Ryan vs. Amy Santiago

For David Morales’s open seat, Providence City Councilwoman Jo-Ann Ryan is the moderate candidate, having run in the past against multiple candidates backed by the Rhode Island left (including running an ill-fated primary challenge to Sam Bell.) Morales, unsurprisingly, is backing progressives’ pick, homeless services coordinator Amy Santiago. Pro-business and pro-charter school groups have poured tens of thousands into this district to elect Ryan, and progressives have responded in kind for Santiago, hoping to defend one of their relatively few existing districts from an establishment takeover which would strengthen the hand of state House moderates and weaken progressives’ influence in the state capitol.

HD-09

Providence: Olneyville, West End | Harris+50

Enrique Sanchez (i) vs. Santos Javier

Democratic socialist state Rep. Enrique Sanchez demolished Santos Javier 53%-26% in 2024 to defend his seat, but Javier is back for a rematch, hoping a head-to-head will make it easier to consolidate the opposition to Sanchez. Though Javier has benefited from a fair bit of spending from charter school PACs this time around, it’s very hard to see him even being able to consolidate the combined anti-Sanchez vote from 2024—the rest went to the prior incumbent Sanchez had unseated—much less dragging Sanchez under 50% as he’d need to do to win. This isn’t a wealthy or socially conservative suburban district where a representative like Sanchez might fairly be seen as a fluke; this is a densely-populated, diverse, progressive set of neighborhoods contained entirely within Providence.

HD-12

South Providence | Harris+37.5

Carlos Cedeno vs. Arlette Hidalgo

Carlos Cedeno is a bit of a perennial candidate, having run for this seat twice before, but both of his prior runs at least resulted in respectable finishes. He’s attacking Arlette Hidalgo for her support from charter school interests, but Hidalgo is also backed by groups supporting abortion rights and gun control, indicating that she’s at least not a member of the full-on conservative faction of the state Democratic Party. Hidalgo has benefited from lots of outside spending and appears to be a strong favorite for this open seat. (Charter school groups are furious about the recent enactment of a three-year moratorium on the approval of new or expanded public charter schools.)

HD-14

Central Cranston and southwest Providence | Harris+9.4

Charlene Lima (i) vs. Naiommi Baret

State Rep. Charlene Lima is a conservative, anti-LGBT Democrat and antivax nutcase, which is why it’s odd that charter school PACs are spending so much to back challenger Naiommi Baret. Lima is so odious that I think the charter school candidate is better—Baret is at least pro-gun control, which earned her the support of the Rhode Island Coalition Against Gun Violence and suggests she’s probably more socially liberal than Lima, whose positions on LGBT rights, abortion, vaccines, and, of course, guns are straight out of the GOP platform. (Despite low rates of gun ownership, the gun rights movement in Rhode Island is historically strong with lots of influence in the legislature, though on the decline in recent years; Lima is staunchly pro-gun.)

HD-22

Eastern Warwick | Harris+1.1

Zakary Pereira vs. Janie Seguí

Progressive Zakary Pereira challenged socially conservative state Rep. Joseph Solomon Jr. in 2022, pulling a third of the vote with very little money. Solomon is now vacating this purple seat to run for AG, and the moderate hope to succeed him is Janie Seguí, a pro-charter school activist who is backed extensively by pro-charter school groups. Sensing opportunity, progressive groups have dumped tens of thousands of their own money into supporting Pereira, who is roughly evenly matched with Seguí financially before you consider outside help; Pereira, not Seguí, actually has the advantage when it comes to outside help due to the smaller size of the charter PACs’ expenditures.

HD-23

Central Warwick | Harris+1.6

Timothy Howe vs. William Muto

Former Warwick City Councilor Timothy Howe and current Warwick City Councilor Bill Muto are running to succeed Joe Shekarchi, who stepped down as House Speaker earlier this year to (unsuccessfully) seek an appointment to the Rhode Island Supreme Court and is not seeking reelection as a result. Muto is backed by the Coalition Against Gun Violence and Planned Parenthood, while Howe is backed by conservative independent Warwick Mayor Frank Picozzi and has a modest financial advantage. Root for Muto, but expect Howe, I think.

HD-31

North Kingstown, Exeter | Harris+12.2

Matthew McCoy vs. Thomas Menec vs. James Sheehan

This seat is newly vacant after state Rep. Julie Casimiro resigned in light of her move to South Carolina, which…yeah, you can’t live in one state while serving in the legislature of another. North Kingstown cop Thomas Menec and former state Sen. James Sheehan seem likely to split the conservative and moderate vote; Menec has law enforcement unions backing him, while Sheehan has business groups, the local Democratic Party organization, and Casimiro (though Casimiro’s endorsement may not be wanted anymore.) North Kingstown town councilman Matthew McCoy is the progressive favorite and the only candidate supportive of both gun control and the state’s recent moves towards taxing the rich. All three candidates are united in their opposition to a proposed sewage treatment plant at a controversial industrial park in the district.

HD-32

North Kingstown | Harris+26.2

Robert E. Craven Jr. vs. Kevin Hoyle

The Rhode Island League of Businesses has one priority House candidate, Kevin Hoyle, with their focus mostly on the state Senate. Thankfully, organized labor, progressive groups, and the local Democratic establishment are all united behind Robert Craven Jr., the son of retiring incumbent Robert Craven Sr. and an official with the Rhode Island Treasury who helps administer the state’s medical debt forgiveness program. It might not feel ideal to be backing the son of an outgoing state rep whose campaign for AG went down in flames, but Hoyle is, like every other League of Businesses candidate, a very obvious Republican. Thankfully, other groups that have made independent expenditures on behalf of other conservative Democrats have largely ignored Hoyle, so Craven Jr. seems like a strong favorite to keep this seat in Democratic hands.

HD-36

Charlestown, South Kingstown, Westerly, Block Island | Harris+18.2

Tina Spears (i) vs. Leah Boisclair

State Rep. Tina Spears faces a challenge from the right. Criminal defense attorney Leah Boisclair is backed and funded by the Rhode Island League of Businesses, and is noticeably vague on policy. She’s also endorsed by the Rhode Island Fraternal Order of Police and would clearly be a step down, especially in a district this blue.

HD-38

Hopkinton, Westerly | Trump+4.5

Brian Patrick Kennedy (i) vs. Stephen Moffitt

State House Speaker Pro Tempore Brian Patrick Kennedy is the longest-serving member of the state House and one of the few incumbent Democrats still getting money from Rhode Island Right to Life, a reflection of Kennedy’s firm opposition to abortion. Former Hopkinton Town Council President Steve Moffitt isn’t attacking Kennedy as a conservative, however—he’s focused on vague gestures at “local control” and a perception that Kennedy is an absentee representative who doesn’t show up to public meetings and events in the district. Moffitt has struggled to file his campaign finance reports properly, but could have enough name recognition in Hopkinton to, at the very least, avoid a total blowout.

HD-57

Cumberland, Central Falls | Harris+11

Brandon Voas (i) vs. James McLaughlin

Conservative Democratic former state Rep. James McLaughlin is an admirably committed sore loser. Incumbent state Rep. Brandon Voas, a fairly standard liberal, got his political start by narrowly primarying McLaughlin out in 2022; McLaughlin came back as a GOP-backed independent in 2024, narrowly losing once again. He’s trying his hand at another Democratic primary bid this time, but has only been able to get support from Rhode Island Right to Life and the League of Businesses on this go-around. Hopefully Voas is able to get a convincing win this time so that McLaughlin finally goes away.

HD-61

Northeastern Pawtucket | Harris+19.2

Leonela Felix (i) vs. Mark Theroux

Progressive state Rep. Leonela Felix (the twin sister of state Senate candidate Gena Felix from above) faces a party-backed challenger in retired cop Mark Theroux, who claims his challenge is rooted in the fact that Felix allegedly doesn’t show up to work events on time or at all. The obvious actual motivation is that Felix is a progressive who has clashed with the conservative local Democratic establishment ever since she unseated a conservative Democratic state representative in the 2020 primary. Police union PACs have spent for Theroux, but other right-leaning PACs haven’t invested in him, indicating a lack of confidence in his ability to actually beat Felix, who has won before without the endorsement of the local Democratic committee.

HD-65

East Providence | Harris+23.2

Matthew Dawson (i) vs. Cameron St. Germain vs. Grant Wosencroft

Matthew Dawson won his seat in 2022 as the establishment candidate, but this time around he’s the better option. Charter school teacher Cameron St. Germain is—you guessed it—the charter schools candidate, spurring progressives (and some business groups that like the incumbent) to come to Dawson’s defense in the face of the charter industry’s investment in St. Germain. Unlike, say, Charlene Lima, Dawson is a liberal enough Democrat that voting for the charter school guy is clearly the wrong choice. Former DC and Rhode Island government staffer Grant Wosencroft is mostly self-funding and seems headed for third place.

HD-67

Barrington, Warren | Harris+31.3

Ronald Jarvais vs. Nicole Jellinek

This deep-blue seat is being vacated by liberal state Rep. Jason Knight as he runs for AG. Reproductive rights activist and social worker Nicole Jellinek—who is also Knight's wife—is a clear favorite and the progressive choice, while Ronald Jarvais is both a clear underdog and a clear conservative, demurring when asked about abortion rights and mostly complaining about taxes and spending. Jellinek is backed by the AFL-CIO and a number of her would-be colleagues, while Jarvais is backed by some more conservative unions and the League of Businesses.