Hi everyone - as you might have guessed, life hit me like a freight train again, and I'm unable to continue the newsletter on my own. However, as I figure out next steps, the team at the Center for Strategic Politics has you covered with an Election Day 2026 preview, which I'm publishing as a guest post here. I strongly encourage you to check out their other work at the links below; I'm really happy with how this turned out, and grateful for all their work.

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California

Federal

CA-04

Parts of Northern California including Napa, Colusa, Sutter, and Yuba Counties and parts of Sonoma, Lake, Yolo, Sacramento, and Placer Counties

Mike Thompson (i) vs. Eric Jones

This district was significantly reshaped by Prop 50, California’s 2025 redistricting ballot measure which redrew the state’s congressional district boundaries to add a number of blue seats amid nationwide redistricting wars. The new CA-04 connects disparate parts of Northern California, stretching from the North Bay (including cities such as Napa, Sonoma, and Rohnert Park) to the Sacramento suburbs and exurbs (most predominantly Lincoln) to the conservative agricultural Yuba City area.

The incumbent, Mike Thompson, is peculiar. He’s been in Congress since 1999, but is nevertheless one of the least-known members of the House Democratic Caucus. Most interestingly, he’s part of the Blue Dog Coalition but actually votes like a median Democrat; his 121st ranking in the Congressional Democrat Left Tracker lands him a whopping 67 places ahead of the next Blue Dog.

Thompson has drawn a similarly unique challenger in the form of former venture capitalist Eric Jones, who narrowly beat out a Republican, Ray Riehle, to reach the general election; Thompson received 41% in the primary, Jones 22%, and Riehle 21%. Jones has portrayed himself as a populist, anti-establishment insurgent; his listed priorities include banning corporate PAC money; taking on Big Pharma, Big Tech, and PG&E (Northern California’s utility provider); and a “Working Class Refund & Tax Cut”. But doubts have been raised as to his authenticity thanks to his background as a venture capitalist and the significant campaign contributions he’s received from venture capital (which is technically not a violation of his pledge to reject corporate PAC money). These contributions are topped off by the whopping $10 million Jones has given to his own campaign, bringing his total fundraising haul to $13.2 million as of September 30, compared to the $5.2 million Thompson has raised.

While Jones’s self-funding and his ties to venture capital have drawn media scrutiny, some deeper rumblings have managed to avoid the spotlight. Jones has further been dogged by rumors of oblique ties to the controversial California Forever project. California Forever is a real estate development corporation led by a group of Silicon Valley billionaires who spent nearly $1 billion secretly buying up land in rural Solano County before revealing their plans to build “the next great American city”, derided by critics as an elite plaything that will fail to yield benefits for regular people. Thompson has been a vocal critic of the project, while Jones has put the issue on the backburner; his only comment we could find was a Facebook reply expressing his opposition.

To win, Jones is relying on his anti-establishment messaging securing a coalition of progressives and Republicans. Other than Our Revolution, he hasn’t been able to secure support or attention from progressive groups, hindered by uneasiness over his background and ties. In the primary, he didn’t win over voters in progressive areas like Davis, a college town, where Thompson won every precinct. Jones did, however, win precincts in Yuba City and the Sacramento area, which were not previously part of CA-04, and will continue to count on Democrats unfamiliar with Thompson as an incumbent. As for Republicans, Jones did secure the endorsement of his primary rival Riehle, and some Republican local officials have also expressed support for him. But it remains to be seen if their voters will follow, especially as Thompson has demonstrated some crossover appeal in previous elections.

It’s unclear how this race will turnout. Thompson has a built-in advantage thanks to his primary performance, but Republican voters, Jones’s financial advantage, and new district lines will work against him. More uniquely, it’s unclear who progressives should support here. Perhaps only time will tell.

CA-07

Downtown and southern Sacramento, Elk Grove, Lodi, western El Dorado County

Mai Vang vs Doris Matsui (i)

This race is perhaps the least-covered left-wing primary challenge of the cycle relative to its chance of succeeding. It’s not entirely surprising given Sacramento doesn’t draw as much attention as New York of Philadelphia, and it doesn’t help that the challenger is closer to the Working Families Party than the Democratic Socialists of America, the latter of which is much more influential and visible nowadays. But Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang’s challenge nevertheless offers a historic opportunity to upend a political dynasty that’s spanned half a century.

Vang, 41, is running against Doris Matsui, an 82-year-old incumbent who’s held the seat for 21 years since her late husband Bob Matsui, who held the seat for the previous 26 years and also served as DCCC Chair and DNC Treasurer, died. Much like AOC and Jamaal Bowman’s challenges to Joe Crowley and Eliot Engel, respectively, Vang argues that Matsui has been in office too long and has too little to offer for it and that the district needs both political and generational change. Her website centers an endorsement from the Sacramento Bee, the region’s most prominent local newspaper, reading “Mai Vang embodies today’s Sacramento. Doris Matsui does not” and calling for a “much-needed and historic changing of the guard”. In addition to the Bee, Vang has drawn endorsements from Sacramento-based Senate Majority Leader Angelique Ashby and a number of local elected officials, several labor unions, and Sacramento DSA, although she did not seek a national DSA endorsement. She’s historically been close with the Working Families Party, and they called her a “WFP Champion” in their endorsement of her. Matsui has little in the way of progressive credentials, ranking 125th in the Left Tracker, and her endorsements overwhelmingly come from establishment elected officials and groups.

In the primary, Vang outright finished ahead of Matsui, winning 31% of the vote to the incumbent’s 29%. The two progressed to the general election thanks to the two Republican candidates splitting their 37% of the vote; had only one Republican run, Vang would be on her way to an easy general election win. Instead, she now faces a tricky general election battle in which Republican voters may be the kingmakers.

Though she hasn’t rolled back her progressive platform, Vang has focused on her anti-establishment bonafides and the need for generational change. Her chances of winning rest in large part on the hope that Republicans see the incumbent Democrat as the greater evil, something that has has occurred before, most notably in 2018 when most Republicans voted for (the now-disgraced) Kevin de León against the more moderate Dianne Feinstein. One issue for Vang is that Matsui is not a recognized incumbent to parts of the district, which took on a significant amount of new Republican turf after Prop 50 redistricting. Matsui also has an established advantage in those areas; in the primary, Vang swept most of Sacramento while Matsui was stronger in the suburbs and exurbs.

Matsui, for her part, has been hitting Vang hard from the right. She ran an attack ad tarring Vang for her association with streamer Hasan Piker, an angle primarily used by Republicans to attack Democrats such as Abdul El-Sayed; Vang defiantly appeared on Piker’s stream for an interview in October despite the attack. Matsui will count on these attacks resonating with Republicans and leading them to choose ideologically; she’ll have to hope they don’t go on her website, where she touts endorsements from Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party. Matsui is also aided by her fundraising advantage; she’s raised $5.2 million to Vang’s $1.6 million.

Thanks to top-two, this race that should’ve been over already is something of a tossup. But if Mai Vang wins, expect a new addition to the latest iteration of the Squad.

CA-11

San Francisco

Scott Wiener vs. Connie Chan

The highly-coveted CA-11 congressional seat has been held by former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi for nearly forty years. She’s drawn numerous, mostly minor, left-wing challengers in recent cycles, but with her retirement this year, the floodgates opened, and San Francisco has its first real congressional race in decades on its hands.

Unsurprisingly given the state of San Francisco politics, this race is one of the nastiest intraparty contests in the country, and both candidates occupy interesting ideological lanes.

State Senator Scott Wiener is a longtime rival of the San Francisco left dating back to his time on the Board of Supervisors. Wiener has been one of the more progressive members of the state legislature; he’s been a champion of pro-housing politics, drug legalization, and LGBTQ rights. But as supervisor, Wiener was positioned firmly on the right wing of SF politics, and he’s continued to back moderate, pro-police candidates. The biggest blemish on Wiener’s record at the state level is his co-authorship of AB 715, a bill nominally about antisemitism that in practice suppresses classroom discussions of and curricula covering Palestine. Wiener has flip-flopped on the issue, only recently declaring that he believes Israel’s actions in Palestine to be a genocide.

In the primary, progressives were split between two candidates: Supervisor Connie Chan, and Saikat Chakrabarti, a tech entrepreneur, former Chief of Staff to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Executive Director of Justice Democrats. Though Chakrabarti appeared to be a formidable candidate at first, he suffered from questions over his commitment to the left, particularly given he spent thousands to defeat DSA former Supervisor Dean Preston and voted for centrist Mayor Daniel Lurie. Despite being outraised significantly by Chakrabarti, Chan comfortably progressed to the general election thanks to broad support from labor, progressive organizations and elected officials, and (at the last minute) Pelosi herself, who has historically clashed with Wiener and his allies. Wiener received 41% of the vote, Chan 30%, and Chakrabarti 18%. After losing, Chakrabarti endorsed Chan and has spent resources to support Chan’s campaign, a commitment that’s helped dispel fears that his progressive positioning was a charade.

The political contrast between Wiener and Chan is complicated by the eccentricities of San Francisco local issues. Chan is one of the most notorious NIMBYs on the Board of Supervisors, while Wiener is a staunch advocate of building more housing. In San Francisco, where progressives are usually NIMBYs and moderates are usually YIMBYs (though not uniformly), this is unsurprising, but it’s left progressives elsewhere in the country with doubts about Chan. These alignments have only exacerbated the bitterness that’s pervaded the campaign. Wiener aroused controversy when his campaign created an AI chatbot targeting Chan and her housing politics; he was forced to remove the website and apologize.

Wiener has continued to outraise Chan, with $5.8 million in funds to her $2.4 million. Polling has given him a small but consistent edge, though some have pointed out that a key part of Chan’s base, Chinese voters, could be undersampled in English-language polls. This race is down to the wire, and the attention and controversy it’s drawn certainly makes it one to watch.

CA-12

Berkeley, Oakland, Alameda, San Leandro

Lateefah Simon (i) vs. Jamie Joyce

When longtime representative (and now mayor of Oakland) Barbara Lee, heralded as a progressive icon most notably for her lone vote opposing the invasion of Afghanistan, ran for Senate in 2024, she selected BART Board Director Lateefah Simon as her replacement. Simon received the backing of labor, progressives, and the establishment alike and easily dispatched her intraparty opponent, centrist Jennifer Tran, 65% to 35% in the general election.

Simon, a Muslim and the first member of Congress born legally blind, has carried on Lee’s legacy well and in fact is arguably tacking to her left. She currently ranks as the 7th most left-wing and 6th most pro-Palestine member of Congress and often passionately invokes the causes of Palestine and other global injustices in her speeches.

In this left-wing district, she faces little threat from either Republicans or moderates and drew no notable opposition this cycle. Her sole opponent in the primary, who automatically progressed to the general election despite being walloped 84% to 16%, is nonprofit director Jamie Joyce. Joyce’s unconventional website focuses on government efficiency and AI ethics. She attacks Simon in a number of areas in an attempt to differentiate herself but offers little in the form of substance and is in fact running to Simon’s right on issues such as Medicare for All. Joyce clearly isn’t a serious candidate, and her endorsements are limited to people in the AI sphere and “three Epstein survivors”. It’s thus unsurprising that her support in the primary came disproportionately from Republicans who likely blindly voted against the Democratic incumbent. Simon will deservedly win again by a similarly large margin.

CA-14

Southern Alameda County

Aisha Wahab (i) vs. Melissa Hernandez

Since the open primary, we’ve seen a special election in this district that turned Aisha Wahab into an incumbent and this general election matchup into a rematch. Wahab was already the leading contender for this seat initially left open by Eric Swalwell when he ran for governor. Despite her reputation as a progressive, the then-state senator won the support of the California Democratic Party and several major elected officials in addition to progressive groups like the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. BART Board Director Melissa Hernandez, a staffer for centrist County Supervisor David Haubert, was backed by the New Democrat Coalition, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and local police unions. A third candidate, Rakhi Israni Singh, ran a campaign centered on Hindu nationalism, aiming to tap into right-wing anger against Wahab for her authorship of an anti-caste discrimination bill that led to recall threats. When Swalwell was accused of rape by several women, his departure from the gubernatorial race and resignation from Congress also affected this Congressional race, as it led to a special election scheduled for shortly after the regular primary.

In the primary, Wahab received 38%, Hernandez 17%, Singh 13%, and the two Republicans 13% and 12%. In the special primary two weeks later, Wahab received 43%, Hernandez 17%, Singh 13%, and the two Republicans 9% apiece. Despite the size of Wahab’s lead, the prospect of the anti-Wahab vote consolidating was made more real when AIPAC spent $1.2 million on ads backing Hernandez in the special runoff. Ultimately, Wahab won 53% to 47%, closer than she’d have liked but setting herself up for the general election as a new incumbent.

Wahab’s incumbency should help shore her up in this general election rematch. Her only worry should be if the gubernatorial race sufficiently brings out Republican voters who didn’t bother to vote in the special runoff. But Hernandez still needs to hold on to a significant share of the Democratic vote, and she’s done herself no favors; she recently accused Wahab of having ties to the Taliban in a debate closing statement, losing her an endorsement (only one?) and drawing condemnation from the local Democratic Party. It might still be somewhat close, but we should expect an unserious candidate like Hernandez will not fare better in her second go than her first.

CA-29

Eastern San Fernando Valley

Luz Rivas (i) vs. Angélica Dueñas

Community organizer Angélica Dueñas will hope the fifth time is the charm here after coming up short in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. Her first three runs pitted her against previous Representative Tony Cárdenas, and in 2020 and 2022, she progressed to the general election, where she put up fairly impressive numbers (43% and 42%, respectively) given the structural disadvantages she faced. In 2024, Cárdenas retired and Assemblymember Luz Rivas stepped in to replace him; in a tough year for Democrats, Dueñas was narrowly outmuscled by a Republican in the primary and did not reach the general election. This time, she made it by a half-point margin, besting Republican Rudy Melendez 25% to 24% while Rivas received 51%.

Rivas was among the more progressive members of the State Assembly, admittedly a low bar, but her record in Congress has been disappointingly middling. Dueñas, meanwhile, is running on the same bread-and-butter left-wing issues she’s always been running on, including Medicare for All and rejecting corporate PAC money, while emphasizing her opposition to AIPAC and the genocide, counterposing her stance to that of Rivas, who has taken money from AIPAC shell PACs and attended an AIPAC-funded trip to Israel.

We’re hopeful that heightened attention on the genocide and anti-incumbent energy can boost Dueñas compared to previous runs. But given her primary performance wasn’t much better than in her previous runs, and the vast fundraising gap—Rivas has raised over $1 million while Dueñas has brought in less than $100k—we are likely to see Rivas secure another roughly ten-point victory.

CA-34

Northeast and Eastside Los Angeles, Koreatown

Jimmy Gomez (i) vs. Angela Gonzales-Torres

The favorite congressional target of Los Angeles progressives, Jimmy Gomez survived three consecutive challenges from attorney David Kim, two of which came uncomfortably close for the incumbent; in 2022, Gomez only won 51% to 49%. This time, community advocate Angela Gonzales-Torres has stepped up to the plate and might well finish Gomez off. Amid a political environment favoring insurgents and growing political opposition to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, the AIPAC-backed incumbent was already more vulnerable than before.

After the primary, where Gonzales-Torres trailed 31% to 46%, the race was shaken up by sexual misconduct allegations against Gomez, a longtime ally of now-disgraced Eric Swalwell and former chair of his campaign. Though the allegations have not received the nationwide attention they should be getting, and Gomez has faced the widespread pressure to resign that Swalwell did, voters have rightfully turned against him and given Gonzales-Torres a boost.

Since then, Gonzales-Torres has been endorsed by DSA-LA and stepped up her campaign. The Center for Strategic Politics, commissioned by Gonzales-Torres’s campaign, polled the race and found her leading 48% to 38%. 61% of voters in the district said that Palestine would be an important issue in deciding their vote, and 66% have an unfavorable opinion of AIPAC.

Gomez has retained his endorsements from the likes of the California Democratic Party, the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, and Sen. Adam Schiff. He also holds a commanding fundraising lead, having brought in $1.3 million to Gonzales-Torres’s $510k. But the insurgent’s grassroots energy and the nationwide political environment could be insurmountable for Gomez. Gonzales-Torres looks like the favorite to win and add another member to the ever-expanding Squad in DC.

CA-37

South Central, Mid-City, Culver City

Sydney Kamlager-Dove (i) vs. Samantha Mota

The primary here was a quintessential demonstration of the power of the Left Voter Guide Complex in California, particularly in Los Angeles. Sydney Kamlager-Dove is a fairly boring incumbent; she’s neither notably progressive nor moderate, and while her district has burgeoning progressive pockets that may make it a compelling target in the future, it isn’t an obvious core left district like CA-34 that would draw competitive challengers. Yet on the back of recommendations from popular left-wing local voter guides from DSA-LA and Knock LA, activist Samantha Mota squeezed into the general election on only $449. Her 12% of the vote placed her ahead of seven other candidates, including the sole Republican in the race and a Democrat who raised $89k, and given the state of her fundraising, it’s hard to imagine any other source for this performance.

Mota’s fundraising has increased exponentially; as of publication, she’s pulled in a whopping… $13k. That’s still less than 1% of the incumbent’s haul of $1.6 million. But now that she’s through to a one-on-one race, we can expect her to pull in a solid quarter or so of the vote. Not bad!

State

State Insurance Commissioner

Jane Kim vs. Ben Allen

California’s Insurance Commissioner is one of its more obscure elected roles—one of the few such elected officials with this kind of power in the country. The officeholder is responsible for licensing, regulating, and investigating insurance companies and for enforcing customer protections against insurers.

The open race for term-limited incumbent Ricardo Lara’s seat was shaken up by the entrance of Jane Kim, former Executive Director of the California Working Families Party. Kim has a long history as a prominent figure in the California left. A former member of the San Francisco Board of Education and Board of Supervisors, where she won in upsets against the Democratic machine, she ran for State Senate in 2016, finishing first place in the primary but losing to Scott Wiener by a narrow two-point margin in the general election thanks to Republicans’ votes. She served as California political director of Bernie’s 2020 presidential campaign, and after the election, she took on a leading role in WFP’s burgeoning California organization.

Kim has distinguished herself in the progressive lane more clearly than any other California statewide candidate this cycle. Her campaign has centered on holding the insurance industry accountable and creating a public disaster insurance plan, policies critics have castigated as unrealistic and even disastrous but which left allies in the insurance policy field have defended. The only statewide candidate endorsed by Bernie Sanders, she also has the backing of several labor unions, including SEIU California, all major teachers’ unions, the California Nurses Association, and the National Union of Healthcare Workers. At the same time, her connections and history in state politics have secured her support from some establishment figures, like Eleni Kounalakis, and from a number of state and local Democratic Party leaders.

Her general election opponent, state Sen. Ben Allen, is favored by the bulk of the party’s establishment, both of California’s Senators, and the entire state legislative leadership. The Santa Monica resident’s profile, though, is more that of a coastal social liberal than a hardened party apparatchik, and he’s shored up his bonafides in that respect with support from environmental groups like the Sierra Club and California Environmental Voters. Democratic backing alone won’t be enough to put Allen in office, though. He received 19% to Kim’s 27% in the primary and will need Republican voters to help him across the finish line.

Though Allen has denounced their involvement, insurance industry PACs have a clear horse in this race. They’ve spent nearly $5 million on independent expenditures supporting Allen and opposing Kim. For a more obscure position where voters aren’t as checked in, expenditures like this could be more impactful. But Kim’s primary performance demonstrates she is a compelling candidate. This race could go either way.

Board of Equalization D2

Coastal Northern and Central California

Sally Lieber (i) vs. John Pimentel

The California State Board of Equalization (BOE) is the only elected tax board in the US. We Californians love voting for things, especially when they’re very esoteric to voters. Before 2017, the BOE had far more responsibilities, but due to mismanagement of millions of dollars of funds and political corruption, Governor Jerry Brown and the California Legislature stripped the BOE of most of what it was tasked to do. Now, it primarily administers taxes and audits state-assessed properties.

The only non-term-limited incumbent on the Board of Equalization, Sally Lieber is a progressive former Assemblymember who was elected to the BOE in 2022 with the endorsement of Silicon Valley DSA. Though she hasn’t been endorsed for re-election, she remains a progressive ally, and her general election challenger, John Pimentel, decidedly comes from the right, considering his endorsements from establishment San Mateo County elected officials, and the arch-conservative Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Lieber’s commanding lead in the primary, where she bested Pimentel 57% to 16% (with several Republicans splitting the remainder) will be more than enough to secure her a comfortable general election victory.

Board of Equalization D3

Los Angeles County

Mike Gipson vs. Sam Sukaton

Former Monterey Park councilmember and multimillionaire financial executive Yvonne Yiu was perhaps the biggest loser of the California primary cycle. Despite over a million dollars in campaign funds and districtwide name recognition owing to her previous run for State Controller, Yiu was unceremoniously tossed to the side by a labor organizer she raised 30 times as much as. In another display of voter guide excellence, Sam Sukaton bested Yiu 18% to 12% to emerge from the primary despite raising only $30k, helped by a voter guide recommendation from DSA and an endorsement from the Working Families Party, both organizations Sukaton belongs to. He even finished less than ten points behind party favorite Mike Gipson, a state assemblymember who’s secured the endorsement of just about everyone else in California Democratic politics, including the California Democratic Party, the California Labor Federation, Gavin Newsom, and dozens of other lawmakers.

The financial gap is hardly bigger this time around. Gipson has raised over $800k to Sukaton’s $52k. One would expect that Gipson’s wide-reaching endorsements, fundraising haul, and elected office will deliver him the seat party insiders are helping award him. But the primary showed anything can happen, and we hope Sukaton can pull off an even bigger upset to demonstrate that no seat can be taken for granted.

SD-24

Parts of the Los Angeles Westside and South Bay regionsJohn Erickson vs. Brian Goldsmith

The open race to replace Ben Allen in this district that stretches from Hollywood to Malibu to the Palos Verdes Peninsula saw a clown car primary where five candidates cleared double digits. West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson, the sole progressive candidate, emerged top of the pack with 21% of the vote. Erickson, who’s part of West Hollywood’s progressive-YIMBY council majority, has assembled an impressive labor-led coalition of over 30 union locals and has brought together pro-housing and pro-tenant groups alike.

Erickson faces a formidable opponent in businessman Brian Goldsmith, a well-connected donor and former senior advisor for Democratic Majority for Israel and Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign. Progressives’ favorite political forces, including real estate, pro-Israel interests, NIMBYs, big agriculture, and the healthcare industry have coalesced behind him. Goldsmith won 18% in the primary and will be helped by the makeup of the rest of the primary field: Two Republicans won 17% and 14%, respectively, and former Los Angeles County Medical Association president Sion Roy received another 14%; these voters will likely skew in Goldsmith’s favor.

Perhaps unsurprisingly in such a wealthy district, this has become the most expensive State Senate race in California. As impressive as the $1.6 million Erickson has brought in may be, it pales in comparison to Goldsmith’s $6.7 million haul. Half of that sum has come from Goldsmith himself, but he’s also been helped by a glut of outside spending on his behalf. The California Apartment Association and California Realtors Association have spent over $1 million supporting Goldsmith and attacking Erickson, motivated by the latter’s support for repealing the anti-tenant Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act and Ellis Act.

The class conflict in this race couldn’t be clearer, and it doesn’t favor Erickson. But he has one powerful ally in his corner: Supervisor Lindsey Horvath. A former city council colleague of Erickson’s, Horvath has been consolidating support and influence since securing her seat on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors (where she represents two million constituents) with an eye toward the County Executive position that will be up for grabs for the first time in 2028. With the odds against Erickson, it’s Horvath’s influence and support that could deliver a pro-housing, pro-tenant, pro-labor progressive to the State Senate.

SD-26

Central, Northeast, and Eastside Los Angeles

Sara Hernandez vs. Sarah Rascón

In a battle of the Sara(h)s, Los Angeles Community College Board trustee Sara Hernandez faces Sarah Rascón, a former staffer in Mayor Karen Bass’s administration. Hernandez has been the establishment favorite from the start and has significant backing from developers, landlords, and AIPAC-connected donors; Hernandez herself participated in an AIPAC-funded trip to Israel in 2018. The $1.5 million she’s raised dwarfs Rascón’s haul of under $400k, and the gap is only exacerbated by $3 million in pro-Hernandez outside expenditures from Big Tech PACs Grow California and California Leads. Hernandez’s extensive backing delivered her 31% of the vote in the primary.

Rascón, the progressive in the race (who unsuccessfully sought DSA-LA’s endorsement), won 19% in the primary, setting the stage for an uphill general election battle. She’s secured the endorsements of the third- and fourth-place candidates in the primary, former Assemblymember Wendy Carrillo and left-wing perennial candidate and drag queen Maebe A. Girl. But Carrillo’s supporters, who won’t be motivated by the Assemblymember’s personal conflicts with Hernandez that led her to endorse Rascón, may split more evenly in the general election. Although SD-26 contains Los Angeles’s core progressive neighborhoods, Rascón hasn’t been able to draw the same energy that progressives in overlapping districts have, leaving Hernandez as the favorite but as a possible target for the left down the line.

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Central and North Sacramento

Maggy Krell (i) vs. Jagtar Singh

Though this district contains progressive pockets with strong potential for the left, it’s sadly represented by a staunch centrist: Maggy Krell, the only member of the State Assembly to endorse quasi-conservative Matt Mahan’s gubernatorial campaign earlier this year. Krell won the open seat in 2024 after progressives were split between three candidates and locked out of the runoff. Her only opponent this time, Jagtar Singh, is an unknown with no real campaign presence beyond his (multiple!) strange Instagram accounts full of bizarre AI-generated content. It’s no wonder Krell won 86% of the vote in the two-way primary and will stomp to victory again.

AD-12

Marin County and southern Sonoma County

Eric Lucan vs. Jackie Elward

Five Democrats piled into the open race to replace incumbent Damon Connolly, who’s running for State Senate. Corte Madera City Councilmember Eric Lucan was the leader in the primary with 28% of the vote, followed by Rohnert Park City Councilmember Jackie Elward with 22%. Lucan is the more moderate of the two and has secured endorsements from the bulk of the establishment, including Adam Schiff, Rep. Jared Huffman, and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, though the state’s Black establishment is supporting Elward, an immigrant from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The race has pitted labor against business: Elward, a former labor organizer (whose husband runs the Twitter account UnionDrip), is backed by the overwhelming majority of unions and is benefitting from a $1 million independent expenditure from labor, while Grow California has spent $1.8 million supporting Lucan. There’s also a clear geographic divide between Lucan, who is from Marin County, and Elward, who is from Sonoma County. Each portion makes up roughly half of the district, and most of the district’s local elected officials are backing their county’s horse in the race. With Lucan’s primary vote advantage and financial edge, he has the leg up in the general election, but this race easily could go either way.

AD-18

Most of Oakland and Alameda

Mia Bonta (i) vs. Andre Sandford

Incumbent Mia Bonta faces a second-time challenge from Andre Sandford. Sandford, who ran in 2024 as a member of the far-right American Independent Party, is now running as a Democrat and has tried to portray himself as a progressive. But in comparison to Bonta’s solid legislative record and backing from the Working Families Party, Sandford doesn’t have much to offer, and his most notable endorsement is from Andrew Yang. Bonta led 77% to 11% in the primary and will earn another landslide in the general election.

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Ventura, Oxnard, and the Santa Clara River Valley

Steve Bennett (i) vs. Michael MacDonald

With no Republican on the primary ballot, uncontroversial incumbent Steve Bennett instead faces a challenge from Ventura City Clerk Michael McDonald. McDonald’s listed policy priorities are fairly non-substantive and non-ideological, but his endorsements from the Ventura Chamber of Commerce and three different local police unions indicate he’s clearly running to Bennett’s right. MacDonald is clearly a step above your typical unserious challenger, but with only 31% in the primary to Bennett’s 69%, he still won’t pose a significant threat to Bennett’s re-election chances. 

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Parts of Westside and Central Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, West Hollywood

Rick Chavez Zbur (i) vs. Colin Hernandez

Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur is a pro-Israel hardliner with a NIMBY streak. Chavez Zbur, who’s taken $100k from the Israel lobby, co-authored AB 715, crafted to censor discussions about Palestine in schools, and AB 2664, a “buffer zone” bill aiming to ban pro-Palestine protests near places of worship. His problems don’t stop there; he’s also a NIMBY who opposed SB 79, California’s most impactful transit-oriented development legislation in recent times.

Channeling progressives’ discontent with Zbur, Colin Hernandez is running a left-wing primary challenge and progressed from the primary with 22% to the incumbent’s 54%. Hernandez’s fundraising and public backing aren’t strong enough to sufficiently threaten Zbur’s re-election, but he could help lay the groundwork to a future challenge.

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Culver City, Crenshaw, West Adams, Mid-City, Pico-Robertson

Isaac Bryan (i) vs. Ashley Brown

34-year-old State Assemblymember Isaac Bryan is a rising star in California politics and has earned the distinction of being well-liked by both progressives and the establishment. His opponent, social worker Ashley Brown, finished second in the primary despite having no reported campaign contributions. DSA-LA’s voter guide says it all: “Her website features some uncanny AI images and only two organizational endorsements: from ‘Inglewood's 1st and only wine bar’ and the California Rifle & Pistol Association.” Given his 65% to 19% advantage in the primary, Bryan should win handily.

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Torrance, Gardena, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Beach Cities

Paul Seo vs. Sara Deen

This district, containing suburban communities like Torrance, the “Beach Cities” (Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, and Redondo Beach), and the wealthy, conservative Palos Verdes Peninsula, is hardly fertile ground for progressives. The incumbent, Al Muratsuchi, who mounted a failed bid for State Superintendent this year, is a centrist with an environmentalist-NIMBY tilt. Rancho Palos Verdes Mayor Paul Seo is the obvious continuity candidate here; he touts his police union support front-and-center and is supported by the incumbent. But with Republicans split in the primary, he’s facing a fellow Democrat, Sara Deen, who finished just behind him in the primary with 25% to Seo’s 27%. Deen, a dentist and school board member, is running to Seo’s left, but she’s been careful to avoid distinguishing herself as a progressive. Having faced Islamophobic attacks by the reactionary right, which is stronger in Palos Verdes than most other parts of Los Angeles County, she shockingly responded by rebuking DSA-LA for recommending her on their voter guide. Deen hasn’t been afraid, though, to tout her support from YIMBY groups, a welcome but potentially unpopular move in this bastion of suburban homeowner NIMBYism. It’s hard to see Deen winning out given Republican voters make up over a third of the district and could well play a decisive role in determining the victor.

AD-68

Santa Ana and parts of Orange and Anaheim

David Penaloza vs. Jessie Lopez

Santa Ana City Councilmembers David Penaloza and Jessie Lopez are vying to replace incumbent Assemblymember Avelino Valencia, who’s running for State Senate. Though the two are colleagues, they’ve been locked in a bitter contest that has become the most expensive in the state. Corporate PACs, including big tech, real estate, and big oil interests, have spent a whopping $12 million supporting Penaloza, the establishment favorite, and attacking Lopez. But Lopez isn’t new to fight like this. In her first term, police and landlords attempted to recall her for challenging the police union’s power and supporting rent control, but she beat back the recall effort by double digits and went on to secure re-election. Though she’s clearly earned powerful enemies, her fights against corporate interests have also won her allies in the labor movement. Labor unions, led by SEIU California, have spent $3.6 million supporting Lopez and opposing Penaloza, drawing clear class distinctions. Bernie Sanders has also endorsed Lopez.

The primary was a close-fought three way race, with Penaloza coming out in first with 33%, Lopez just behind with 31%, and a Republican narrowly missing out with 29% of the vote. Republican voters could prove decisive here and will undoubtedly skew toward Penaloza. But Penaloza could also pay a price with Democratic voters, especially as popular sentiment against ICE and Flock, key issues in this supermajority-Latino district, grow. Penaloza voted to approve a Santa Ana city contract with Flock, and the police associations backing him have collaborated with ICE. In fact, ICE recently detained a Lopez canvasser in Anaheim. It’s clear which side each candidate stands on, and if Lopez has succeeded in getting her message through amid eight-figure spending against her, she could achieve another upset victory.

Local

Los Angeles Mayor

Karen Bass (i) vs. Nithya Raman

A year after Zohran Mamdani’s transformational victory in New York City, Los Angeles is also eyeing a shift to the left. Despite high hopes for Karen Bass when she was elected mayor in 2022, she’s delivered disappointment after disappointment. Bass has repeatedly incited anger for being absent during local crises, most notably being caught out of the country during the devastating Palisades Fire that destroyed nearly seven thousand buildings and displaced tens of thousands of residents. She’s also imposed an austerity plan on city services and obstructed housing construction in a city that desperately needs it.

Councilmember Nithya Raman shocked political observers when she announced her mayoral run mere hours before the February filing deadline. Despite her late entry and little in the way of endorsements—as of the primary, she was backed by no elected officials and only a few organizations—she grew her support in three months from the single digits to 29% of the vote in the June primary, close behind Bass, who won 34%. Republican reality TV star Spencer Pratt finished third with 26%.

Though many comparisons have been drawn between the two socialists of Indian origin, Raman is not another Mamdani. More wonkish and less charismatic (in fairness, Mamdani’s level of charisma is a very high bar to meet), she’s her own kind of candidate and deserves to be evaluated in her own right. But she’s still inspired progressive voters against the status quo Bass represents, and she secured post-primary support from DSA-LA, popular anti-establishment City Controller Kenneth Mejia, and a number of labor unions.

It cannot go ignored, though, that Raman has also been the source of controversy on the left. Her prior associations with pro-Israel groups and her perceived waffling on issues like BDS led DSA’s National Political Committee to consider potentially overriding the LA chapter and rescinding her endorsement in a vote held the day before the election; ultimately, crisis was averted and the vote narrowly failed. But this hasn’t shaken local organizers, who have stood firm in their support for Raman as she appears on the verge of taking out Bass.

Like many other progressives in top-two races, Raman faces the difficult challenge of winning over Republicans. But Bass has made things easier for her by angering voters on all sides through scandals that transcend ideology. Still, the Democratic establishment’s steadfast support for Bass poses a difficult challenge, and Bass has outraised Raman two to one, raising $5.4 million to her $2.7 million. The most recent poll in the race showed the two candidates tied at 40% apiece. When California polls close hours after those on the East Coast, eyes across the nation will be on this race. A Raman victory would put the left in the previously unthinkable position of leading the nation’s two largest cities.

Los Angeles City Attorney

Marissa Roy vs. John McKinney

City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto has earned the rare distinction of failing to progress to the general election as an incumbent, her paltry 18% of the vote putting her well behind the top contenders. Amid ethics breaches, corruption allegations, political favoritism, and a reputation for alcoholism, Feldstein Soto burned bridges with all but her closest allies and has done more than enough to draw the ire of both the left and the right.

Civil rights attorney Marissa Roy has stepped up to clean up the mess and has emerged as the clear favorite in the race. Despite being a first-time candidate, a challenger to an incumbent, and an actively involved DSA member, she’s put together a formidable coalition, ranging from Bernie Sanders and DSA-LA to Adam Schiff, Alex Padilla, and the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. Roy won 43% of the vote in the primary and has raised $1.2 million.

After abandoning Feldstein Soto, the right wing of LA politics coalesced behind deputy district attorney John McKinney. But beyond his support from police unions, McKinney has failed to mount a strong challenge. With 29% of the primary vote, he has a lot of ground to make up, and he isn’t helped by the fact that the fourth-place candidate, Aida Ashouri, is a progressive whose voters will likely line up behind Roy. Unlike the tight mayoral race, this should be a comfortable victory for the left. It’s Roy’s race to lose.

Los Angeles City Council D3

Woodland Hills, Canoga Park, Winnetka, Reseda, Tarzana

Tim Gaspar vs. Barri Worth Girvan

In this moderate, suburban West Valley district, there is no left-wing candidate on the ballot, but there’s a clear difference between the two contenders. Insurance executive Tim Gaspar is incumbent Bob Blumenfield’s chosen successor, and if his politics weren’t already clear from his job title, one only needs to venture to the front page of his website to see his police union endorsements touted at the very top.

It’s the West Valley, so everyone is pro-Israel and nobody is a socialist, but Barri Worth Girvan, a staffer in Supervisor Lindsey Horvath’s office, is backed by the more mainstream liberal wing of local politics. The county Democratic Party and Labor Federation have endorsed her, as has her boss, Horvath. Gaspar has nevertheless red-baited his opponent and in a recent debate called DSA his biggest motivation for running against Worth Girvan.

Gaspar narrowly edged out Worth Girvan in the primary with 46% to her 43%, but the general election is anyone’s game. Worth Girvan would move Valley politics in a positive direction and help shift the balance of the City Council.

Los Angeles City Council D9

South Park, Vermont Square, Florence, Central Alameda, USC

Jose Ugarte vs. Estuardo Mazariegos

In addition to the mayoralty and the City Attorney’s office, DSA-LA is looking to expand their presence on city council to five members with organizer Estuardo Mazariegos, Los Angeles Director of the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment. This South Central-based district, overwhelmingly Latino and working-class, is outside the typical progressive base DSA-LA has previously secured, but Mazariegos and his coalition of progressive labor unions and community organizations secured a second-place primary finish with 26% of the vote.

His establishment opponent, Jose Ugarte, was the presumed favorite from the start. Ugarte served as incumbent Curren Price’s deputy chief of staff and boasts support from the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, numerous labor unions, and countless elected officials, and he’s outraised Mazariegos $777k to $423k. But he’s been hit with corruption scandals, including a fine for violating city ethics laws and recent allegations of ballot harvesting targeting elderly Latinos. Ugarte’s 39% in the primary represented a commanding lead over Mazariegos but was a disappointment compared to his backers’ expectations.

Mazariegos will be helped by an endorsement from third-place finisher Jorge Nuño. The Bass-aligned Community Coalition and the network around it, which backed fourth-place finisher Elmer Roldan, is split; progressive Bass allies like Assemblymember Sade Elhawary have endorsed Mazariegos, while moderate elements are lining up behind Ugarte.

Thanks to Mazariegos’s strong campaign, what was supposed to be a coronation has turned into a close race. Ugarte likely has the upper hand, but Mazariegos could pull off an upset and show that progressive politics can win outside the Commie Corridor.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors D2

Marina District, Pacific Heights, the Presidio

Stephen Sherrill (i) vs. Nicholas Berg vs. Guy McCoy

In one of her final acts as Mayor of San Francisco, London Breed appointed Stephen Sherrill, who served as the director of her Office of Innovation, to replace Catherine Stefani, who had been elected to the State Assembly. Sherrill has followed in Stefani’s footsteps in establishing himself as a reliable part—and arguably the rightmost member—of the centrist bloc on the Board of Supervisors (San Francisco’s city council equivalent). He was first tested in a special election in June of this year but easily defeated his progressive-backed opponent, Lori Brooke, 69% to 31%, helped by the conservative lean of this district (which is San Francisco’s wealthiest and whitest) and the city’s current political climate. Brooke opted not to run again in November, leaving Sherrill with token opposition: Nicholas Berg is the Chair of the San Francisco GOP, and Guy McCoy has reported no spending.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors D4

Sunset District

Alan Wong (i) vs. Jeremy Greco vs. Albert Chow

Alan Wong is another appointed incumbent. His seat has a tumultuous history; Wong is the fourth District 4 Supervisor in just as many years. In 2022, Joel Engardio defeated incumbent progressive Gordon Mar by a narrow 1.7-point margin. Engardio, a YIMBY, came under fire two years later for supporting a ballot measure to permanently close the Great Highway, the main thoroughfare on San Francisco’s western edge, to cars and turn it into a park. The ballot measure passed citywide but received only 36% of the vote in District 4, which contains the bulk of the Great Highway. Engardio would ultimately be recalled by a virtually identical margin—63% to 37%—but fascinatingly, his coalition was completely inverted; his strongest areas in 2022 became the biggest supporters of recall, while Mar’s voters became the least likely to vote to recall Engardio, thanks to the realignment of progressive renters who supported Mar but also supported the closure of the Great Highway.

Engardio’s recall tasked moderate Mayor Daniel Lurie with appointing his replacement. Lurie’s first appointment was Beya Alcaraz, a pet store owner with no experience in government or politics. The confusion and scrutiny triggered by this appointment turned to disaster within days when media reported that Alcaraz had paid workers under the table to violate taxes and that poor sanitary conditions and neglect in her pet shop had led to the deaths of over a dozen animals. Alcaraz resigned only a week after her appointment and was replaced by City College of San Francisco Trustee Alan Wong.

Wong has historically tried to position himself between progressives and moderates in San Francisco’s political spectrum but since his appointment has aligned more strongly with moderates. Like Sherrill, he faced a special election in June. Wong won 46% in the first round of ranked-choice voting, climbing to 64% after all rounds to progressive Natalie Gee’s 36%, the result again resembling the Great Highway closure measure and Engardio’s recall. Gee opted not to run in November, but Albert Chow and Jeremy Greco, who received 17% and 8%, respectively, in the special election, are running again. Gee, Mar, and some progressive groups have endorsed Greco. But with Wong outraising Greco and Chow—$105k to $5k and $1k, respectively—this race isn’t expected to be competitive.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors D6

SoMa, Mission Bay, Treasure Island

Matt Dorsey (i) vs. Alex Behrend

After Matt Haney’s election to the State Assembly in 2022, London Breed appointed Matt Dorsey, head of communications for the San Francisco Police Department, to the seat. Dorsey’s appointment ended the district’s continuous lineage of progressive Supervisors, which included Haney and Jane Kim before him. Unsurprisingly given his background and appointer, Dorsey is solidly aligned with SF moderates. Redistricting helped shore him up, as population growth in the South of Market and Mission Bay neighborhoods, which have seen an influx of tech workers, led to the district losing its progressive core in the Tenderloin. Dorsey defeated his challenger Honey Mahogany, a trans woman, drag performer, and local Democratic committeewoman, 53% to 47%.

This time, Dorsey is not under significant threat. His sole opponent, Alex Behrend, is running as a progressive but touts no endorsements and has only raised $4k to Dorsey’s $131k. This could be an interesting test of baseline opposition in the district, but Dorsey should win easily.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors D8

The Castro, Noe Valley, Glen Park, Cole Valley

Manny Yekutiel vs. Gary McCoy vs. Michael Nguyen vs. Darshini Patel

With incumbent Rafael Mandelman term-limited and eyeing a state Senate run in 2028, four candidates piled into the race for this Castro-based seat, which has been held by a gay man since its creation in 2000. Restaurant owner Manny Yekutiel, the initial frontrunner, was controversial from the start; his restaurant, Manny’s Cafe, has been a frequent target of vandalism—which, depending on who you ask, is due to Yekutiel’s public pro-Israel views or his Jewish heritage. Yekutiel led fundraising (he’s raised $786k to date), was endorsed by Lurie, seven Supervisors, the San Francisco Democratic Party, and centrist groups like Grow SF. In June, activist Brad Chapin accused Yekutiel of sexual assault. Despite widespread condemnation, the vast majority of Yekutiel’s endorsers ignored the allegation; only Rep. Lateefah Simon, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Assemblymember Matt Haney, and Supervisor Myrna Melgar pulled their endorsements. Then, in October, several more individuals accused Yekutiel of sexual assault. This seemed to be enough to get his backers to stop plugging their ears, but not before justifiably being accused of hypocrisy and disrespect toward survivors. Yekutiel’s campaign collapsed, and he dropped out of the race.

Most of Yekutiel’s endorsers have moved to Gary McCoy, a former aide to Nancy Pelosi. In addition to his former boss, McCoy had been endorsed by some progressives, but his establishment connections proved comfortable enough for most moderates to see him as a safe pick. With Yekutiel’s exit, McCoy is the overwhelming frontrunner and leads the remaining candidates in fundraising with $389k.

Attorney Michael Nguyen is the candidate of choice for the more traditional progressive wing of local politics and has raised $270k. Former DoorDash executive Darshini Patel, the only woman in the race (but who, like her opponents, is also queer), is refreshingly running as a progressive YIMBY, a rare combination in San Francisco. She’s backed by the city’s teacher’s union and the Arab Resource & Organizing Center’s political wing. Interestingly, she was recently endorsed by Grow SF despite refusing the group’s support, something opponents have used to paint her as a fake progressive while supporters have suggested is simply a sign of her pro-housing bonafides. Patel is last in fundraising, though, at $193k. This race is McCoy’s to lose.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors D10

Bayview-Hunters Point, Potrero Hill, Visitacion Valley

Theo Ellington vs. Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter vs. J.R. Eppler

This is the only race in San Francisco where progressives are playing defense. Two-term incumbent Shamann Walton, who is a progressive but in classic San Francisco fashion has NIMBY tendencies, is term-limited. Theo Ellington, who finished third to Walton in 2018, is the arguable frontrunner this time around. He’s endorsed by Lurie, the SF Chronicle, and seven Supervisors, and he leads the pack in fundraising with $495k.

Walton’s pick is nonprofit leader DJ Brookter. Though he significantly behind in fundraising at $200k, Brookter is the favorite of San Francisco’s progressive groups, including the Working Families Party and the Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club, a boon in this district, which is one of the city’s more progressive. He and J.R. Eppler, another progressive candidate, will hope that one benefits from the other’s preferences in ranked-choice voting. For his part, Eppler has less backing than Brookter, and as the only non-Black candidate, could struggle more in this historically Black district. With San Francisco politics in flux but trending to the right, an Ellington victory could cement moderates’ advantage on the Board of Supervisors. 

Washington

LD-29, Senate

Parts of Tacoma and its suburbs

Sharlett Mena vs. David Anderson

Like California, Washington has top-two jungle primaries. State Rep. Sharlett Mena easily finished first with 70% in the primary for this open state Senate seat vacated by Steve Conway. She’s endorsed by virtually every Democratic elected official, organization, and union in the area, including the incumbent. David Anderson is an unserious candidate with a banner at the top of his website reading “I AM THE CORRECT CHOICE TO STOP OUT-OF-CONTROL SPENDING. MY LOYALTY IS TO THE VOTERS”. No Republican ran in the primary here, so Anderson’s 26% likely came mostly from Republican voters. Mena will win the general election rematch in a repeat landslide.

LD-32, Senate

Shoreline, Lynwood, Mountlake Terrace

Cindy Ryu vs. Jesse Salomon (i)

Incumbent State Senator Jesse Salomon has drawn a challenge from the left from state Rep. Cindy Ryu, who’s criticized Salomon as “too moderate” for the district. Salomon, who calls himself a “pragmatic progressive”, has come under fire for, among other things, amending a rent stabilization bill to raise the rental increase limit from 7% to 10%. It bears mentioning that in Washington, State Senate and State House districts are coterminous, meaning Ryu has no name recognition disadvantage. Ryu has gathered an impressive slew of endorsements, including the King County Democrats, the overwhelming majority of labor unions, and Rep. Pramila Jayapal. She’s also picked up a number of State House colleagues, while Salomon’s State Senate colleagues have stuck behind him: Salomon has 11 Senate endorsements and 2 House endorsements, while Ryu has 15 House endorsements and 0 Senate endorsements.

Ryu led Salomon in the primary, winning 44% to the incumbent’s 38%, with a Republican earning the remaining 18%. Republican voters could be decisive in the general election; they could vote ideologically and bail out Salomon, but it’s likely a significant chunk of Republican voters will skip the race altogether. The two candidates also are neck-and-neck in fundraising; Salomon has raised $304k to Ryu’s $294k. This could end up being a very close race.

LD-37, Senate

Southeastern Seattle

Chipalo Street vs. Tatiana Brown

This is another lopsided open race. Progressive incumbent Rebecca Saldaña is running for King County Council, and State Representative Chipalo Street has slotted in as the presumptive replacement, endorsed by a whopping 67 state legislators and a slew of unions and organizations. He’s nevertheless challenged by policy researcher Tatiana Brown, who’s drawn on support from the more radical side of Seattle politics. Brown, who at 28 would be the youngest woman elected to the state Senate, is supported by some recognizable local left-wing figures like Nikkita Oliver, but prominent progressive outlet the Stranger, which often bucks the establishment in its endorsements, opted to endorse Street. Street led Brown overwhelmingly in the primary, with 74% to her 25%, and he is expected to win just as easily in the general election.

LD-43, Senate

Central Seattle

Jamie Pedersen (i) vs. Hannah Sabio-Howell

Seattle’s new left-wing mayor, Katie Wilson, who defeated incumbent Bruce Harrell last year in a shocking upset, took another bold move this year in endorsing a primary challenge against Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen. Located in the heart of Seattle, LD-43 includes left-wing neighborhoods like Capitol Hill and Fremont (home to the Lenin statute) that helped power Wilson’s victory, rendering this race a test of Wilson’s power to continue to upend the establishment. But this move failed miserably. Despite being endorsed by Wilson, State Representative Shaun Scott (who also represents LD-43), and several other elected officials, former legislative staffer Hannah Sabio-Howell registered only 23% of the vote in the primary to Pedersen’s 67% (an independent, Heather-Marie Wilson, finished third with 9%). Sabio-Howell’s performance was surely not helped by Wilson’s declining popularity, particularly after the mayor made the classic error of firing the city’s police chief (a move that also helped to tank progressive former mayor Sheng Thao in Oakland, CA). It’s hard to see her turning this around in the general election.

LD-11, Position 1

Renton, Tukwila

David Hackney (i) vs. Ashley Fedan

Nurse and veteran Ashley Fedan is challenging incumbent state Rep. David Hackney in this district based in the diverse Seattle suburbs of Renton and Tukwila. Despite her fundraising deficit—she’s raised $107k to the incumbent’s $235k—Fedan has performed competitively. In the primary, Hackney led Fedan 42% to 32%, with a Republican winning the remaining 26%. Fedan has also secured support from a few unions and state legislators. Unlike other challengers, she isn’t running a clear left primary challenge, though she’s undoubtedly still to Hackney’s left. The Stranger felt comfortable enough to endorse her, especially given Hackney “cosponsored bills with Republicans in 2024 and 2025 criminalizing street protests in direct response to a Gaza ceasefire protest blocking I-5 in Seattle.” But Fedan will face an uphill battle given her primary deficit and will have to hope this relatively depolarized race lets her pick up anti-incumbent Republicans to emerge victorious.

LD-21, Position 1

Edmonds, Mukilteo

Strom Peterson (i) vs. Jason Moon

Mukilteo City Council President Jason Moon is giving it a second go after falling short in the primary last time he challenged Strom Peterson. In 2024, Peterson earned 51% in the primary, a Republican 27%, and Moon 22%; this time, with no Republican in the race, Peterson came out ahead in the primary by a smaller margin, 54% to 44%. Moon has cited “financial responsibility, housing pressures, homelessness/drug impacts and public safety” as reasons behind his challenge, establishing Moon in a more moderate lane; it’s no surprise that he likely scooped up most of the Republican vote in the primary. Per progressive nonprofit Fuse Washington, Moon “frequently echoes more conservative talking points, such as increasing law enforcement, returning education to fundamentals, and preserving local character.” Both LD-43 Senate candidates have weighed in here, with Cindy Ryu endorsing Peterson and Jesse Salomon endorsing Moon. Though the primary was too close for comfort, it—alongside Peterson’s $126k to $55k fundraising advantage—should hopefully be enough to secure Peterson victory in the general election.

LD-22, Position 2

Olympia area

Lisa Parshley (i) vs. Jamie Keenan-deVargas

24-year-old Jamie Keenan-deVargas is running a spirited challenge from the left against incumbent Lisa Parshley. He pulled 29% in the primary to Parshley’s 68%, which is fairly impressive considering he’s a fresh candidate with little backing. Keenan-deVargas has raised only $7k, while Parshley has pulled in $127k. She should cruise to victory again.

LD-29, Position 1

Parts of Tacoma and its suburbs

Krista Perez vs. Melanie Morgan (i)

In addition to the State Senate race, both of LD-29’s State House races have Democrat vs Democrat runoffs, and these two have been quite competitive thus far. But post-primary events threw a wrench into the works for Position 1 challenger Krista Perez. Only days after besting incumbent Melanie Morgan in the primary 49% to 47%, Perez was arrested for a DUI and later arraigned, pleading not guilty. Nevertheless, she’s managed to hold onto endorsements from the Pierce County Democrats, the Washington State Labor Council, and a number of other organizations and elected leaders. Perez is running to the left of Morgan, who voted against the state’s Millionaires Tax. Given the tight margins in the primary, it’s hard to imagine the DUI arrest won’t have an impact in the race. Whether it’ll be decisive remains to be seen.

LD-29, Position 2

Parts of Tacoma and its suburbs

Joe Bushnell vs. Patrick Stickney

With Sharlett Mena vacating the seat to run for State Senate, Position 2 is an open race. Tacoma City Councilmember Joe Bushnell and policy advisor Patrick Stickney emerged from the primary with 22% and 20% of the vote, respectively, narrowly edging out a Republican amid a split GOP vote. Bushnell, fresh off a council re-election campaign where he defeated a DSA candidate, is the establishment pick in the race; in addition to a range of centrist elected officials, he’s also backed by the Washington Council of Police & Sheriffs and the Tacoma Pierce County Association of Realtors, among other groups. Labor, on the other hand, is with Stickney, as is the incumbent, Mena. Though the incumbent’s support should help Stickney significantly, he faces an uphill battle given Republican votes will be decisive, and there’s no anti-incumbent energy to harness in an open race. He also lags slightly behind Bushnell in fundraising, having raised $73k to Bushnell’s $83k. Still, an open, Democrat vs Democrat race can be unpredictable, and Stickney will hope that Mena’s coattails can help deliver him victory.

LD-32, Position 1

Keith Scully vs. Danica Noble

In a crowded primary that saw five major Democrats compete for Cindy Ryu’s seat, two emerged. Ryu’s pick, Shoreline City Councilmember Keith Scully, topped the field with 26% of the vote. Thanks to her fundraising, which led the pack, FTC anti-trust lawyer Danica Noble followed him with 24%, finishing ahead of the candidate endorsed by LD-32 incumbents Jesse Salomon and Lauren Davis and ahead of two other elected officials.

It’s not the easiest to tease out who’s the more left-wing of the two. Scully has some progressive credentials, being a local leader on transportation, and a supporter of the Millionaires Tax. But Noble has matched many of his progressive stances and has come out more strongly on consumer protection and AI regulation issues. Critics of Scully have pointed to his more centrist-leaning positions on policing, and while he has positioned himself as an urbanist, advocating to abolish zoning, Seattle blog the Urbanist endorsed Noble and noted that Scully “has used tree removal fees and hard-scape maximums to keep new, denser housing out of Shoreline’s low-density single-family neighborhoods.”

Jesse Salomon’s endorsement of Noble brings pause. But it’s possible that this is just a reaction to his rival, Ryu, backing Scully. On the other hand, Scully is perhaps more concerningly endorsed by pro-Israel group Washingtonians for a Brighter Future and by Julie Kang, the centrist candidate in this year’s Seattle City Council special election. Interestingly, the Stranger endorsed Scully, but their reasoning was rooted in his government experience, not progressive positions. Scully is also endorsed by the moderate-conservative Seattle Times.

On balance, it looks like Noble is the more progressive candidate. She also continues to be the stronger fundraiser, bringing in $195k to Scully’s $121k. We’ll hope this is enough to deliver her victory.

LD-32, Position 2

Lauren Davis (i) vs. Imraan Siddiqi

Unlike the other two races in LD-32, Position 2 isn’t competitive. Imraan Siddiqi, Washington state director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, is challenging incumbent State Representative Lauren Davis. Siddiqi ran last cycle, too, challenging Kim Schrier for U.S. House, but only won 3.5% of the vote. Despite running on a slate with Ryu and Scully, he appears to again be coming up short, having won only 26% in the primary to Davis’s 72%.

LD-34, Position 2

West Seattle, Vashon

Joe Fitzgibbon (i) vs. Mary Anito

In a rare challenge from the right, small business owner Mary Anito is running against House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon because, in the Stranger’s editorial board’s words, “she believes Fitzgibbon ignored her concerns about education funding when she visited his office.” The progressive magazine has endorsed Fitzgibbon, while the moderate-to-conservative Seattle Times gave their backing to Anito for some reason. Anito’s quixotic challenge has produced expected results: she received only 24% in the primary. Fitzgibbon’s 74% should be repeated again in the general election.

LD-37, Position 1

Southeast Seattle

Kelabe Tewolde vs. Sharon Tomiko Santos (i)

While Chipalo Street’s open seat is being filled virtually uncontested by DSA endorsee Jaelynn Scott, the other LD-37 State House seat is also slated for a potential shift to the left. Incumbent Sharon Tomiko Santos, the longest-serving member of the Washington State House, finished second in her primary to educator Kelabe Tewolde, who bested her 52% to 48%. Though a progressive, Tewolde’s backing isn’t limited to the left—in addition to the likes of Pramila Jayapal, the Stranger, the Working Families Party, and DSA state Rep. Shaun Scott (no relation to Jaelynn), he’s managed to snag the endorsements of Governor Bob Ferguson and the Seattle Times!

It doesn’t help that Tomiko Santos been rocked by scandal, with the Stranger noting her “ignominious tenure as chair of the House Education Committee” amid underfunding and a recent near-strike, as well as her campaign “losing $20,000 to a bizarre fraud scheme involving fake FBI officials and convincing her campaign that its account had been used to purchase child sexual exploitation material.” It really seems like everything is coming together against the veteran lawmaker. The general election should still be expected to be a tough fight given the close primary margin, but it’s Tewolde’s to lose.

LD-43, Position 1

Central Seattle

Nicole Macri (i) vs. Alby Clendennin

University of Washington student Alby Clendennin only registered 7% of the vote in the primary against incumbent Nicole Macri, who won 92%. To be fair, though, Clendennin has reported raising $0 in funds—that’s an infinite number of votes per dollar!

LD-46, Position 1

Northeast Seattle

Gerry Pollet (i) vs. Will Dreher

This is another district where Katie Wilson intervened in the primary. In an even bigger disappointment for the mayor, though, her endorsee, Ron David, was knocked out in the primary with a third-place finish and 17% of the vote. But another challenger, former federal prosecutor Will Dreher, secured 31% of the vote, and the two progressives’ combined vote shares could pose a real threat to incumbent Gerry Pollet, who eked out a bare majority with 52%. Despite a relatively thin set of endorsements—most notably the Stranger, Seattle City Attorney Erika Evans, and Councilmember Dionne Foster—Dreher has run an impressive campaign, outraising the incumbent with $308k to Pollet’s $242k. After he “weathered one of the more intense smear campaigns we’ve seen in local politics”, per the Stranger, Dreher could end up being sent to the state legislature. Given the tight margins and primary deficit, he’ll have to rely on favorable turnout among his progressive base, but we’re in as good an environment as any for such an outcome.

LD-48, Position 2

Parts of Bellevue, Redmond, and Kirkland

Jessica Forsythe vs. Amy Walen (i)

We wrap up this exhaustive list of intra-party Washington general election contests with perhaps the closest of them all. Only 17 votes separated incumbent Amy Walen from Redmond City Councilmember Jessica Forsythe in the primary, the latter narrowly coming out ahead. Walen, dubbed a “car dealership baroness” by the Stranger, is another lawmaker who’s come under fire for her opposition to the Millionaires Tax and rent stabilization. Forsythe’s progressive credentials and governing experience have earned her endorsements from the King County Democrats and the Washington State Labor Council, who we’ve learned aren’t afraid to buck incumbents (unlike their counterparts in most of the rest of the country), as well as (interestingly) from former Governor Jay Inslee. But Walen has called in the cavalry, bringing in a $468k fundraising haul; while Forsythe’s $196k would look impressive in most other races, it leaves her with a significant deficit here. With such tight margins, Forsythe will have to hope that progressive, anti-establishment energy trumps money here.

Oregon

Portland City Council D3

Southeast west of I-205 and parts of Northeast

Tiffany Koyama Lane (i) vs. Angelita Morillo (i) vs. Steve Novick (i) vs. Tom Sollitt vs. Esther Leon vs. Kellie Torres

In 2024, Portland changed their electoral system from a city commission system with five at-large seats to a 12-member city council with four wards that each elect 3 members by single transferable vote, making Portland the largest city in the US to use a (quasi-)proportional system to elect its local government (learn more about STV here). This change coincided with a complete turnaround for the left, which had been swept out of office amid creeping gains for moderates across the Pacific Northwest. In 2024, all four wards were up, and progressives won six of 12 seats, forming the Peacock coalition; four of those seats went to DSA members. This time, councilmembers in two of these wards must face the voters again.

District 3 is the most progressive of Portland’s four districts, with left-wing hotspots like the hip neighborhoods of Buckman and Hawthorne. It’s the only one where two of three incumbents are democratic socialists: Tiffany Koyama Lane and Angelita Morillo, whose re-elections will be crucial to ensuring moderates don’t gain a majority on city council. The two have led the six-candidate pack in fundraising, with $368k and $314k, respectively. Both are endorsed by the bulk of labor, and Koyama Lane is a former teachers’ union organizer and leader; Morillo, for her part, has a background as a policy advocate and has made waves as a social media influencer under the Instagram username “pnwpolicyangel”.

The third incumbent, Steve Novick, is an interesting case. He first rose to notability in his 2008 U.S. Senate run; the then-activist Novick ran a spirited underdog challenge to DSCC favorite Jeff Merkley from the left, ultimately only narrowly losing to Merkley by three points. Today, Merkley is one of the most progressive members of the Senate (and may will remember that he was the sole Senator to endorse Bernie Sanders in 2016). Novick, on the other hand, entered city politics and became positioned as a relative moderate, serving on the city commission for one term before being defeated by a progressive in 2016, and now returning to office under the expanded city council model. While he’s again part of the six-member moderate block, he is in fairness one of the bloc’s less conservative members. For that, he’s somewhat of a consensus pick; he’s the only District 3 candidate all three local Oregon newspapers have endorsed.

As is often the case with consensus candidates, though, Novick must be careful to avoid being squeezed from both the left and the right. His $206k in funds places him in fourth, behind new candidate Kellie Torres, who’s raised $297k. A former chief of staff to arch-centrist councilmember Dan Ryan, Torres is the #1 pick of centrist political organization United for Portland (they’ve ranked Novick #2). In their quest to move Portland politics back to the right, centrists are hoping for both Torres and Novick to win and oust one of either Koyama Lane or Morillo. Under STV, Torres and Novick will need to hope for a combined 50% of the vote to achieve this feat.

The other two candidates, Tom Sollitt and Esther León, lag far behind in fundraising (at $43k and $36k, respectively) and public backing. Progressive group Portland for All has endorsed León as a third option alongside Koyama Lane and Morillo, but even if progressive voters follow their lead, it’s unlikely the three will reach the combined 75% to box out both Novick and Torres.

Portland City Council D4

Northwest, Southwest, Sellwood

Olivia Clark (i) vs. Eric Zimmerman (i) vs. Mitch Green (i) vs. Jeremy Beausoleil Smith vs. Eli Arnold vs. Jamey Evenstar vs. Jayne Cronlund

District 4, centered primarily on Portland’s wealthier west side, is the city’s most moderate. Democratic socialist incumbent Mitch Green, who has been a DSA member for nearly a decade and has served in the Portland chapter’s leadership, is the chief target of a “Ditch Mitch” campaign by centrist and right-wing forces seeking to secure a moderate sweep here. With STV, he only needs to scrounge up 25% of the vote alongside progressive allies. For his part, Green is helped by $302k in funds, the support of organized labor, and DSA canvassers.

Incumbents Olivia Clark and Eric Zimmerman are solid parts of the moderate bloc. Both have long histories as legislative staffers, and Zimmerman is a current National Guardsman. They’ve been endorsed by the city’s two moderate publications, the Oregonian and the Willamette Week, but the alternative Portland Mercury (a sister publication of Seattle’s the Stranger) has eschewed the two in favor of endorsing Green and two progressive challengers. Clark and Zimmerman have raised $186k and $276k, respectively.

The top fundraiser, though, is a non-incumbent. Police officer Eli Arnold has pulled in $371k in his second bid for council after narrowly losing out to Zimmerman for the district’s third seat two years ago. Arnold is a good fit for Portland centrists given policing, crime, homelessness, and drug use are key issues in the local political discourse, and the right wing of Portland politics wants less compassionate approaches to all four. Given his profile and financial backing, Arnold poses a strong threat and could well knock out one of Clark or Zimmerman in a case of moderate-on-moderate violence.

Three new candidates round out the pack. Organizer Jeremy Beausoleil Smith and Jamey Evenstar, chief of staff to progressive councilmember Candice Avalos, are seeking to flip majority control of District 4 to the left. They’ve raised $149k and $85k, respectively, and Portland for All has endorsed both. On a good day for the left, it’s possible one of the two could pull off an upset and give the left a decisive majority on the City Council. Finally, Jayne Crolund is another moderate, but given the crowded field, it seems unlikely she’ll be able to squeeze her way in.

Multnomah County Chair

Julia Brim-Edwards vs. Shannon Singleton vs. Sharon Meieran

A closely contested political fight in Portland is also underway at the county level. Multnomah County Chair Jessica Vega Peterson is not running for re-election, and two commissioners—and one former commissioner—are vying to replace her. District 2 commissioner Shannon Singleton (who represents North and Northeast Portland) is occupying the progressive lane. On her website, she touts her “record of progressive reform”, including bringing unhoused people into housing. She’s endorsed by all six of Portland’s Peacock councilmembers, though interestingly, two moderates are also backing her. District 3 commissioner Julia Brim-Edwards (who represents much of Southeast Portland), on the other hand, has run on increasing police funding and is backed by establishment figures like former Governors Ted Kulongoski and Barbara Roberts and Reps. Suzanne Bonamici, Val Hoyle, and Janelle Bynum.

In this ranked-choice race, the third candidate, former District 1 commissioner Sharon Meieran, could prove decisive. Meieran is seeking the office for a second time after losing to Vega Pederson 54% to 45% last time. As she was positioned to Vega Pederson’s right, her voters’ preferences could help Brim-Edwards’s efforts.

But two weeks ago, far removed from the scandals breaking across national elections, this races saw its own October Surprise when three Portland School Board members alleged that Brim-Edwards made anti-trans comments about student athletes in meetings last year. This led AFSCME Local 88, the largest union of Multnomah County employees, to vote overwhelmingly to rescind their endorsement of Brim-Edwards and endorse Singleton. Brim-Edwards’s campaign’s response to a request for comment from the Willamette Week was to confusingly blame Singleton’s campaign for the unfolding events. Amid vicious attacks by the Trump administration and the right writ large’s attempts to manufacture consent for a genocide against trans people, Multnomah County voters will hopefully leave Democrats like Brim-Edwards who kowtow to reactionary interests in the dustbin of history.

Minnesota

Hennepin County Attorney

Cedrick Frazier vs. Anders Folk

After one term in office, Mary Moriarty, County Attorney of Hennepin County, Minnesota (home to Minneapolis) announced she won’t run for re-election. Moriarty was elected as a reform candidate in 2022, beating the more law-and-order candidate, Martha Holton Dimick, 58% to 42%. The two leading candidates to replace her represent a similar dynamic.

State Representative Cedrick Frazier, a former public defender, carved out the progressive lane early on. He’s endorsed by major progressive figures such as Rep. Ilhan Omar, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Lieutenant Governor (and soon-to-be-Senator) Peggy Flanagan, as well as Senator Tina Smith, who’s displayed an increasing alignment with progressives on her way out of office. The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, where the left has been adept at winning delegate elections, also endorsed Frazier, as has the state’s labor federation and the Working Families Party. A former military prosecutor, Anders Folk naturally fits the profile of a law-and-order candidate, and his endorsements from the Hennepin County Deputy Sheriffs Association, centrist Rep. Angie Craig (who lost to Flanagan in the Senate primary earlier this year), Republican former governor Arne Carlson, and the left’s favorite local enemy, Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey, cement his position in the centrist-conservative lane.

Frazier emerged from the primary with a significant lead, earning 36% to Folk’s 23%. But his path to victory is complicated by the fact that the third- and fourth-place finishers, Diane Krenz and Hao Nguyen, who also commanded significant shares of the vote (19% and 15%, respectively), were also prosecutors whose voters might be more moderate-minded and could move to Folk. Krenz in particular had a geographic base that overlapped heavily with Folk; both won precincts in the suburbs and exurbs, while Frazier swept most of Minneapolis.

Folk has also outraised Frazier significantly, raising $742k to Frazier’s $168k. The Working Families Party has sought to close that gap by spending over $500k supporting Frazier’s campaign, but Folk, too, is supported by outside spending, with centrist political organization All of Mpls spending $370k on his behalf.

Perhaps Folk’s biggest weakness is the coalition he’s depending on. Republican voters can be decisive in nonpartisan races in blue jurisdictions, but his endorsements from Republican organizations and officials could turn off even many moderate Democrats. Frazier will hope to capitalize on this, particularly with his DFL endorsement, and if he scoops up enough Democrats, he’ll be able to overcome the alliance of conservative Democrats and Republicans backing Folk.

Florida

St. Petersburg Mayor

Charlie Crist vs. Ken Welch (i)

Folks, Charlie Crist is back! After a storied career running for, winning, and losing races at nearly every level of government, the former Governor is trying his hand at local politics with a challenge against St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch. Asked earlier this year why he decided to run against the incumbent, Crist said “while I like him and think he's a nice fellow, I think we can do better in the administration and city hall in St. Petersburg than what we're getting now”, not a particularly compelling explanation—perhaps he was just being polite, or perhaps he just wanted to avoid giving away that he really just wants to get back in office one way or another. (To be fair, he followed up by also pointing to the Tampa Bay Rays’ impending departure from St. Pete to Tampa.)

Crist emerged from the primary with a decisive lead, winning 35% to Welch’s 21%. Welch won in majority-Black areas, while the more conservative parts of the city that Welch’s Republican opponent won in 2021 went to Crist. But the Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat isn’t exclusively running to Welch’s right. For example, Crist has called for an at least temporary stop to St. Pete’s use of Flock ALPRs, while Welch has defended the practice. Crist has charged Welch with insufficiently challenging the state’s removal of Pride murals. But Crist is also opposing a proposed infrastructure bond that would be funded by a property tax hike, and he has leaned more NIMBY on development issues. Crist has been endorsed by a couple Republican elected officials, but Welch does have the backing of the city’s police union.

Regardless, this looks like Crist’s race to lose. It’s hard to see the remainder of the primary vote not further boosting anti-incumbent forces. After over three decades in and out of office, this man just can’t be counted out.

Tallahassee Mayor

Jeremy Matlow vs. Loranne Ausley

In a cycle that’s seen bright spots like Angie Nixon’s primary victory, Florida progressives have another exciting opportunity. Jeremy Matlow, one of two progressives on the Tallahassee City Commission, emerged from the nonpartisan mayoral primary in first place with 36% of the vote. Matlow, who’s supported Bernie Sanders in his presidential campaigns, appeared alongside Sanders and Nixon on the former’s Fight Oligarchy tour last month. He’s received significant backing from the progressive Green Advocacy Project, which contributed $200k to his campaign committee this year and also funded his campaigns in the past. Matlow’s other endorsements include democratic socialist city commissioner Jack Porter, a handful of other local elected officials, the local AFL-CIO chapter, and the Florida Democratic Progressive Caucus.

Matlow’s opponent, former state Sen. Loranne Ausley, draws her support from developers and police, echoing the political divide that’s defined Tallahassee politics in recent years. In addition to developer PAC Grow Tallahassee, which has butted heads with Matlow and with the Leon County Democratic Party in the past, Ausley is backed by Leon County Sheriff Walt McNeil, the local Police Benevolent Association, and establishment figures like former DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Ausley’s biggest get, though, might be her endorsement from third-place finisher Daryl Parks, whose 25% combined with Ausley’s 34% would command a majority in the general election.

But whether Parks’s voters will follow remains to be seen. In the predominantly Black first and second wards where Parks did best in the primary, Matlow won more than twice as many votes as Ausley. Instead, Ausley’s base was the whiter, more conservative parts of Tallahassee. Black voters’ antipathy toward Ausley could prove a challenge in her attempts to win over Parks voters.

Ausley’s other advantage lies in her fundraising lead; she’s raised $662k to Matlow’s $318k. But Matlow has already demonstrated that he can win without his opponents’ money; he was outraised by both Ausley and Parks in the primary but won more votes than both. If he can channel grassroots energy again and harness progressive excitement around Angie Nixon, we could see a progressive mayor in Florida’s capital.

Alaska

HD-38

Bethel and surrounding areas

Conrad “CJ” McCormick vs. Nellie “Unangiq” Jimmie (i) vs. Willy Keppel (R) vs. Joseph Amik (Ind)

Alaska has the country’s most unique electoral system: a jungle primary from which four candidates emerge, and a ranked-choice general election. This system most famously helped propel Mary Peltola to victory. But over the past few cycles, Alaskans have settled into this system, and candidates have learned how to game it. As a result, we’re often left with boring elections where third- and fourth-place candidates drop out of the general, leaving only minor candidates to fill the vacant slots. This cycle, there’s only one general election where two Democrats are competing, but it is an interesting one.

It also bears mentioning that Alaska also has perhaps the most unique political dynamics in the country. Political affiliations are more fluid, and in both legislative chambers, Democrats (co-)govern despite Republicans holding a majority of seats, thanks to a chunk of Republican legislators joining with Democrats to form majority coalitions. The other way around has happened too; in the 2023-24 session, Republicans governed the State House with the support of two rebel Democrats. One of those Democrats, Conrad “CJ” McCormick, paid the price in 2014; Yup’ik community leader Nellie “Unangiq” Jimmie challenged him and ultimately bested him 52% to 48% after all rounds of ranked-choice voting.

This time, though, McCormick is back with a vengeance. In the primary, he topped the poll with 32% of the vote, followed by Jimmie with 29%, Republican Willy Keppel with 24%, and independent Joseph Amik with 15%; all four automatically progressed to the general election. That a Republican is in third might not be a great sign for Jimmie, as with ranked-choice voting, his voters’ preferences could expand McCormick’s lead.

In the rural Alaskan Bush, though, partisan interests aren’t the only thing on voters’ minds. Local issues are more central here, where residents are only connected to other towns by plane, than in most other places. One of the central issues in the 2024 campaign was the proposed Donlin Gold mine, which McCormick opposed but Jimmie was neutral on. Per the Alaska Beacon, the mine “would be one of the largest open-pit gold mines in the world” and would provide revenue and jobs to the region and benefit Alaska Native corporations, but “there is deep opposition to the mine among many in the region because of potential environmental harm, affecting salmon and natural resources at the heart of people’s diets, lifestyles and Indigenous cultures.” Jimmie now opposes the mine, putting her on the same page as McCormick and Keppel, but McCormick has attacked her over her past neutrality.

Amik, for his part, has dropped out and endorsed Jimmie. A local mayor whose biographical information listed his interests as including “teaching [his] children subsistence way of life”, he cited Jimmie’s indigenous heritage in his endorsement; the district is 84% Native, while McCormick and Keppel are white. Though Amik will remain on the ballot, his voters could provide Jimmie a much-needed boost, leaving Keppel’s supporters as the likely kingmakers (assuming the Republican doesn’t pull out a surprise second-place finish).

Despite a purportedly predictive primary, ranked-choice voting and the nature of politics in rural Alaska makes this one of the harder races to predict. This could go either way. Removed from the intricacies of local Bush issues, we have to root for Jimmie, given she’s the one who hasn’t sided with Republicans.