2026 Michigan Primary Preview
Damn, you people fit a lot of primaries in one mitten. The most expensive Democratic Senate primary in US history! The DSA-establishment coalition to crush Shri Thanedar! What feels like half of the blue seats in your legislature! Writing this was a lot, man. (Glad to be back.)
As a programming note, I am unfortunately going to pare back the Washington preview to only include congressional races; I decided that it was more important to get Michigan right than to rush Washington, considering that many of the races in Washington that I would have covered are beauty pageant primaries that will get rerun in November between the same two candidates.
MI-Sen
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens
Total IEs: $58,180,124.76
Anti-El-Sayed: $20,135,965.80
Pro-El-Sayed: $3,102,900.82
Anti-Stevens: $1,087,994.05
Pro-Stevens: $33,853,264.10
If you read this newsletter, you probably know who these people are and what they’re running for, so I’ll keep the introductions brief. Abdul El-Sayed is a former Detroit health director who first entered the electoral arena with a progressive gubernatorial run in 2018. El-Sayed lost that primary to establishment favorite Gretchen Whitmer, but impressed a lot of people along the way with his charisma and bold policy instincts. Haley Stevens is a former staffer on the auto bailout who also first entered the electoral arena in 2018, winning a crowded primary and going on to flip a GOP-held seat in that year’s Democratic wave; you might also remember her for the exceptionally nasty redistricting double-bunk primary she waged against fellow Rep. Andy Levin with AIPAC’s backing in 2022. They are now the only two candidates left standing in the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters.
Stevens has benefited from what I am reasonably confident is the single largest independent expenditure campaign in a Democratic primary for federal office in American history. A majority of the outside money boosting Stevens and bashing El-Sayed has come from AIPAC’s super PAC arm, United Democracy Project, but Stevens also has other well-heeled super PACs backing her to the tune of tens of millions. (Just not as much as AIPAC is spending.) She has also benefited—or suffered, depending on who you ask—from being the pick of the Democratic establishment in Michigan and in DC. Despite Stevens reportedly being Chuck Schumer’s fourth choice to hold this Senate seat—after Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Flint-area Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet all decided against running—the unpopular Senate Democratic leader has gone all-in behind the scenes for Stevens, pressuring Michigan Democrats up to and including Peters himself to take a heavier hand to the Senate contest. (Peters did ultimately endorse Stevens, but reportedly doesn’t mind El-Sayed all that much; Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also endorsed Stevens, and notoriously dislikes El-Sayed—bad blood from their 2018 brawl.)
In the face of this onslaught—with attacks saying he is too progressive, too anti-Israel, and sometimes, in moments of gross honesty, too Muslim—El-Sayed hasn’t flinched. Instead, he and his supporters seem to have been galvanized by having the kitchen sink thrown at them—and El-Sayed has led by double digits in the polls for a little while now, suggesting that Stevens’s endless parade of desperate gambits (most recently accusing El-Sayed of “blaming all his problems on Jewish Americans”) is not working, and that the viral video of Stevens (who is Christian) shouting “Israel comes to me in my dreams” may have fatally defined Stevens to a crucial segment of the primary electorate.
I can’t believe I’m saying this myself, but this should be over relatively quickly on election night. I still want to give you a guide on how to watch, though, so I’ll walk through what should be each candidate’s strongholds.
For El-Sayed, look for him to do particularly well in counties anchored by college towns—Ann Arbor’s Washtenaw County, East Lansing’s Ingham County, Kalamazoo County, Marquette County, Isabella County—as well as in Grand Rapids’s Kent County, which has a traditionally progressive primary electorate. Also expect El-Sayed to crush it in Arab and Muslim neighborhoods—essentially, Wayne County outside of Detroit. (Detroit reports its election results separately from the rest of Wayne County, so you will be able to tell how non-Detroit Wayne County is going, separately from Detroit proper.)
For Stevens, look for her to do best in her district, and particularly in the affluent, liberal, heavily Jewish suburbs contained within it in southeast Oakland County. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Stevens doing well in Detroit, where the local establishment has more sway than in the suburbs and rural areas; in Macomb County, an older, more conservative suburban county north of Detroit full of Obama-Trump voters; and in Livingston County, an affluent, left-trending exurban county wedged between Detroit and Lansing. Beyond that, I genuinely struggle to come up with obvious Stevens strongholds given the way she’s polling. And if Macomb, Livingston, or Oakland is won by El-Sayed, no matter how small the margin, that’s realistically the end of the line for Haley Stevens. Maybe Stevens is able to cobble together a coalition of all the various smaller urban counties dotting Michigan that cumulatively make up most of the rest of the primary vote—Flint’s Genesee County, Battle Creek’s Calhoun County, Saginaw County, Bay County, Muskegon County, Berrien County—but I doubt it.
MI-04
Kalamazoo, Holland, Battle Creek | Trump+5.5
Diop Harris vs. Sean McCann
State Sen. Sean McCann is a top DCCC prospect for a swingy Southwest Michigan seat, but former Sherrod Brown staffer Diop Harris is putting him through the paces with a challenge from the left. Harris has raised a little money and gotten a few endorsements here and there from progressive organizations, and is generally running on a progressive platform: Medicare for All, court reform, abolish ICE (plus a data center moratorium since that’s all the rage right now.) It’ll be interesting to see how well he does as a test of the Democratic mood in the Midwest in a race that’s managed to avoid the spotlight.
MI-07
Lansing area, Howell, Owosso | Trump+1.3
Bridget Brink vs. Will Lawrence vs. Matt Maasdam
Total IEs: $7,934,018.28
Anti-Brink: $1,307,287
Pro-Brink: $58,000
Anti-Lawrence: $1,984,356.42
Pro-Lawrence: $774,531.36
Anti-Maasdam: $1,499,781.60
Pro-Maasdam: $2,310,062.90
Moderate Democrats failed to consolidate behind one candidate in this purple mid-Michigan district, and the result might be a Bernie Sanders-endorsed cofounder of the Sunrise Movement, Will Lawrence, taking the Democratic nomination in a must-win House seat. House Democrats have been openly panicking about the prospect of a Lawrence nomination, but are spectacularly disorganized and discordant in their efforts to stop it—as Republicans meddle to boost Lawrence even further, exacerbating Democratic anxieties over Lawrence’s hardline stances and controversial past comments. Meanwhile, Lawrence himself doesn’t shy away from being a hardcore progressive, but he’s mostly running a happy-warrior campaign focused on local issues, particularly local opposition to data center construction in mid-Michigan. Meanwhile, two so-very-2018 Democrats are running on centrist platforms and their national security credentials: Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, endorsed by Sen. Elissa Slotkin and seemingly the likeliest to stop Lawrence, and Bridget Brink, a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.
MI-11
Central and SE Oakland County | Harris+16.1
Aisha Farooqi vs. Jeremy Moss vs. John Paul Torres vs. Don Ufford
Total IEs: $439,495.07
Anti-Moss: $20,000
Pro-Moss: $399,495.07
Pro-Ufford: $20,000
State Sen. Jeremy Moss is the overwhelming favorite for Haley Stevens’s open seat, located in the affluent liberal suburbs of inner Oakland County. However, he's got to get past three (really, two) opponents to formally sew it up. Attorney Aisha Farooqi is running the hardest to the left of anyone in the field; she wants to abolish ICE and enact an arms embargo on Israel. Former Ford engineer Don Ufford is running more to the center, but is also attacking Moss, a staunchly pro-Israel Democrat, for taking tens of thousands from major AIPAC donors. Ufford is realistically the biggest threat to Moss; he’s raised over a million between donors and self-funding (spending about ¾ of that as of July 15.) John Paul Torres is also in the race, but hasn’t gained traction with endorsers or donors.
MI-12
Detroit, Dearborn, Southfield | Harris+38
Rashida Tlaib (i) vs. Byron Nolen vs. Shanelle Jackson
Inkster Mayor Byron Nolen and former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson are the latest hopeless challengers to sign up to lose to Rashida Tlaib. The Detroit establishment has been putting these candidates up ever since Tlaib won her seat in 2018, and it has always gone very poorly for the Tlaib challenger due to the congresswoman’s attention to local issues and focus on constituent services. Nolen and Jackson’s angle is blaming Tlaib, the only Palestinian in Congress, for Kamala Harris’s defeat—a bold and extremely stupid move in the most Arab congressional district in the country. The only question is how much they lose by. (Jackson got 5% against Tlaib in 2022.)
MI-13
Detroit, Hamtramck, Highland Park, the Grosse Pointes, Downriver | Harris+41.1
Shri Thanedar (i) vs. Donavan McKinney
Total IEs: $3,628,545.95
Anti-Thanedar: $463,165.47
Pro-Thanedar: $1,835,679
Anti-McKinney: $268,690
Pro-McKinney: $1,061,011.48
Shri Thanedar has been a singularly bizarre figure in American politics ever since his losing 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Here’s what my coauthor and I wrote about him back in 2022, which still holds true today:
Shri Thanedar is one of those characters you don’t forget. Thanedar was a totally unknown pharma millionaire who burst onto the Michigan political scene by desperately turning the money hose everywhere he could in an attempt to become governor. Despite claiming to be “the most progressive Democrat running for governor”, no one in Michigan actually bought that, especially given his animal-murdering corporate past, and the presence of Abdul El-Sayed in the race, the candidate who all the progressive groups were actually excited about. Mid-campaign revelations that he enthusiastically attended a Marco Rubio rally in 2016 were surprising but not shocking given how obvious a political act this was for him. Thanedar came in third with 18%, doing best near Detroit, possibly because he’d been secretly buying off local radio hosts during the primary. It’s hard to describe Shri’s odd stage presence, his deluge of ads, or how damn weird that whole campaign was. (If you don’t have the phrase "Shri is me" lodged permanently in your brain, consider yourself lucky).
That was our introduction to Shri, and unfortunately, it wasn’t the last we heard of him. Thanedar went on to self-fund his way into a state House seat in Detroit in 2020, and from there he pivoted to running for Detroit’s open U.S. House seat in 2022. Narrowly winning despite AIPAC, progressives, and the local establishment all wanting someone else, Thanedar immediately did a complete 180 on the issue of Israel in the hopes of getting AIPAC on his side. While it didn’t work, it did royally piss off anyone who had been previously inclined to let the eccentric Detroit congressman be—as did his brazen neglect of constituent services; his hostility to Detroit’s other U.S. Representative, Rashida Tlaib; and his indifference to the Black Detroit establishment’s wishes. A challenge from Detroit Councilwoman Mary Waters fizzled out in 2024, but another Thanedar challenger in 2026 was a sure thing all along.
Enter Donavan McKinney, a labor organizer with SEIU and a state representative from Detroit. McKinney came right out of the gate with support from both the Detroit left (including figures like Tlaib) and the Detroit establishment (including figures like Wayne County Executive Warren Evans), as well as Justice Democrats; he would later add DSA to his coalition, as well as a surprising number of Thanedar’s own colleagues. AIPAC, and other big spenders that normally defend embattled House Democrats, have stayed out, with the exception of the crypto industry’s favored super PAC, Protect Progress, while progressive groups have piled into the race. Not only does the left smell blood here—the establishment seems, all things considered, pretty okay with losing a member of Congress to a DSA challenge when the member in question is Shri Thanedar. To survive, Thanedar will need to keep further defections in Detroit, Highland Park, and Hamtramck to a minimum while matching or exceeding his 2024 performance (a 55-34 victory districtwide) in whiter, middle-class Downriver and the tony Grosse Pointes—a tall order against an opponent far stronger than the one he faced in 2024.
SD-01
Downtown Detroit to Downriver | Harris+51.4
Abraham Aiyash vs. Justin Onwenu
Progressive former state Rep. Abe Aiyash faces Justin Onwenu, a young attorney and advisor to Detroit Mayor Mary Sheffield. Onwenu is the moderate in this race—Aiyash is a longtime stalwart of the Detroit left and is closely aligned with Rashida Tlaib and Donavan McKinney, while Onwenu is benefiting from lavish independent expenditures funded by DTE, the main electric utility for the Detroit area, as well as by Matthew Moroun, the Republican megadonor who owns the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and southwestern Ontario. Tlaib has been going hard for Aiyash (I get constant fundraising texts on his behalf) and the Detroit left wants this one bad, but Onwenu won't go down without a fight: he’s backed by Sheffield and much of the Detroit establishment, in addition to all the corporate money, and organized labor is heavily split in this race.
SD-02
Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, parts of Detroit | Trump+3.2
Abbas Alawieh vs. Erin Byrnes
Before co-founding the Uncommitted movement to pressure then-president Joe Biden to shift his policy on Palestine, Abbas Alawieh served as chief of staff to then-Rep. Cori Bush and as a staffer in the congressional offices of Michigan progressives Rashida Tlaib and Andy Levin. (Alawieh voted for Kamala Harris in November.) Because he founded the Uncommitted movement, which did best in heavily Arab Dearborn, Alawieh is being treated as the prohibitive favorite here, touting endorsements from outgoing incumbent state Sen. Sylvia Santana and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as well as progressive figures like Levin and Bernie Sanders. Some unions, women’s groups, and progressive groups are holding out for state Rep. Erin Byrnes, but it’s frankly just very hard to see a white Democrat beating Alawieh in Dearborn, especially with the coalition of supporters Alawieh has already assembled.
SD-03
Downtown Detroit, Hamtramck, Highland Park | Harris+77
Mohammad Alam vs. John Conyers III vs. LeJuan Council vs. LaTanya Garrett vs. Korey Hall vs. Adam Hollier vs. Gary Hunter vs. Kimberly Hill Knott vs. Toinu Reeves vs. Abraham Shaw vs. Eboni Taylor
The race to succeed progressive state Sen. Stephanie Chang is a mess. Let’s take each candidate in turn.
Mohammad Alam is running as Hamtramck’s candidate, which is almost certainly not enough to win but enough to register in this district.
John Conyers III is the son of the late Detroit U.S. Rep. John Conyers Jr. He is also a perennial candidate who never manages more than a few percent of the vote, when he even manages to make the ballot.
LeJuan Council is a small business owner who has worked with the Detroit Land Bank, but she’s struggled to gain traction.
LaTanya Garrett is a former state representative who also worked as a staffer to Shri Thanedar during his single term as a Michigan state representative.
Korey Hall is the establishment favorite, with the endorsement of his former boss, Gov. Whitmer (he was a regional director and senior advisor, also previously serving on the staff of Sen. Debbie Stabenow, another endorser.)
Adam Hollier is just getting a bit sad now. After losing to Shri Thanedar in 2022 as AIPAC’s pick, then failing to make the ballot in 2024, then dropping out of first a House rematch and then a Secretary of State bid before dropping down to the state Senate, the former state senator is obviously just running for whatever seems easiest. Give it up.
Gary Hunter is a local crank and perennial candidate.
Kimberly Hill Knott is a former staffer for John Conyers Jr., a nonprofit professional, and a former member of the Detroit Board of Zoning Appeals; she’s tried to run for office several times in recent cycles, but this is the first time she’s made the ballot.
Toinu Reeves is an economist and community activist whose big ideas are cracking down on the local water utility, tenant protections, and seeking out alternative revenue sources to supplement property taxes for state and local governments in the Detroit area.
Abraham Shaw is another perennial candidate.
Eboni Taylor is the progressive choice, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, and outgoing state Sen. Chang. Taylor is an executive at Higher Heights, an organization which seeks to elect Black women to public office, and a longtime activist and political operative on the left.
SD-06
Northwest Detroit and Redford | Harris+77.4
Mary Cavanagh (i) vs. Stephen Jensen
Stephen Jensen is a phantom candidate, leaving Mary Cavanagh safe for another four years.
SD-07
Southfield to Pontiac | Harris+36.3
Jason Hoskins vs. Shadia Martini vs. Rakesh Ramakrishnan
State Rep. Jason Hoskins is a modest frontrunner over real estate developer Shadia Martini, the nominee for an overlapping state House seat in 2024; also in the race is Rakesh Ramakrishnan, a local surgeon. If there's a dividing line in this primary between two mostly interchangeable Democrats, it’s data centers—Hoskins is pro, while Martini is quite skeptical, and Martini has been able to collect some local endorsements.
SD-10
SE Oakland County and western Warren | Harris+30.6
Mark Murphy vs. Natalie Price vs. Amanda Treppa
This primary is functionally a low-stakes progressive-off between state Rep. Natalie Price and local government official and former actress Amanda Treppa. (Mark Murphy is a phantom candidate.) Price and Treppa both tout endorsements from lots of local electeds, labor unions, and progressive groups, and both have broadly similar platforms, making it really hard to tell who’s favored or who’s the better choice. I’m at least confident that SD-10 will get another good senator out of this primary.
SD-11
South-central Macomb County | Harris+3.2
Veronica Klinefelt (i) vs. Alysha Johnson vs. Joseph Michael Hunt
Longtime suburban local elected Veronica Klinefelt unseated a Republican incumbent senator in 2022 after redistricting scrambled the suburban Detroit legislative maps, and she’s been a low-key member of the Democratic caucus ever since, with her most notable legislation being (fittingly for a former suburban local elected) a proposal to reduce transparency in meetings of government bodies. Neither Alysha Johnson nor Joseph Michael Hunt is running much of a campaign at all, and Republicans currently don’t seem interested in trying to get this seat back, so Klinefelt seems set to win another term by default.
SD-13
SW Oakland County | Trump+1.6
DC Anderson vs. Sean Carlson vs. Cecil George
Former Oakland County Deputy Executive Sean Carlson is the overwhelming favorite for this open seat, with the backing of the Michigan Senate Democratic caucus’s political arm and outgoing incumbent Rosemary Bayer. DC Anderson is a phantom candidate, and landscaping company owner Cecil George is running a shoestring campaign without any major validators or endorsers. This is a case where the party tried to clear the field early—and largely succeeded.
SD-15
Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti | Harris+43.2
Felicia Brabec vs. Michael White
Former state Rep. Felicia Brabec and local activist and nonprofit leader Michael White are running for an open, deep-blue seat in Washtenaw County, covering Ypsilanti, southern Ann Arbor, and some surrounding towns to the south and west. Brabec is an overwhelming favorite with a six-figure fundraising lead and unified support from both progressives and the establishment, while White, who has not previously held elected office, has a handful of endorsements from local Black leaders and Detroit state Rep. Tyrone Carter.
SD-28
Lansing, East Lansing, Owosso | Harris+9.3
Rashida Harrison vs. Ted Kilvington vs. Robert Peña vs. Mark Polsdofer
Two Ingham County Commissioners are on the ballot for this blue seat held by retiring state Senate Democratic leader Sam Singh, but only one, Mark Polsdofer, is mounting a real campaign; Robert Peña lacks a website and hasn’t filed any campaign finance reports. Professor Rashida Harrison and IT professional Ted Kilvington round out the field; Harrison has a handful of local endorsements, but nothing like the wall of support Polsdofer has from local electeds and labor unions.
SD-29
Wyoming, Kentwood, southern Grand Rapids | Harris+26
Ivan Diaz vs. Abbie Groff-Blaszak vs. Phil Skaggs
State Rep. Phil Skaggs is one of the few Democrats who scored endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, AG Dana Nessel, and SoS and gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson, as well as many of his colleagues (including Donavan McKinney.) Skaggs also has just about every union imaginable in his corner and is a clear favorite here. Grand Rapids Board of Education President Abbie Groff-Blaszak is running a bit to his left, favoring a repeal of the state’s ban on rent control (though both she and Skaggs prominently support bringing a progressive income tax to Michigan, so neither is a fiscal or economic conservative.) Democratic socialist former Kent County Commissioner and union activist Ivan Diaz rounds out the field, also favoring a slate of left-wing policies like rent control, progressive taxation, and single-payer healthcare.
SD-30
Walker, Allendale, northern Grand Rapids | Harris+4.3
Carol Glanville vs. Richard Kreuzer
State Rep. Carol Glanville is the establishment’s overwhelming pick to flip this purple district, and it’s not hard to see why, considering she flipped a much redder district in a 2022 special election. (Glanville is a standard Democrat who votes the party line on the floor, so she’s not the worst or anything.) Running to her left is LGBT activist and nonprofit leader Richard “Rickie” Kreuzer, a member of the Michigan State Board of Nursing with little money but the endorsement of the Michigan Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus. Glanville should coast through the primary, and the Democratic nominee probably starts out as a slight favorite against GOP state Sen. Mark Huizenga in November in light of the 2026 midterm environment and Huizenga’s very narrow 2022 victory.
HD-01
Southwest Detroit, Ecorse, River Rouge | Harris+58.9
Tyrone Carter (i) vs. Teddy Dorsette vs. Jermaine Tobey
State Rep. Tyrone Carter faces a challenge from Deaf activist Teddy Dorsette III, as well as perennial candidate Jermaine Tobey. Dorsette has the Progressive Caucus backing him, which makes sense after Carter unsuccessfully challenged progressive Detroit City Councilwoman Gabriela Santiago-Romero from the right last year, but he is generally running a low-budget, low-key campaign. Would be nice if he won, though.
HD-02
Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Melvindale | Harris+1.5
Frank Liberati vs. Gary Schlack vs. Joanna Whaley
Former state Rep. Frank Liberati is seeking a return to his old job after his brother Tullio is termed out—and he’s willing to play dirty to get there. The Liberatis have always been socially conservative Democrats, so perhaps it’s no surprise that Frank is a gutter transphobe—but it was still galling when he tried to have LGBT rights activist Joanna Whaley thrown off the ballot because she didn’t file for office under her deadname. (The clerk rejected Liberati’s challenge, and Whaley raised tens of thousands from people outraged at her treatment; the state party also distanced itself from Liberati and condemned his disgusting gambit.) Whaley, who would be the first out trans woman elected to the Michigan legislature, has the support of quite a few unions and local elected officials at multiple levels of government, in addition to progressive groups and national figures like Delaware Rep. Sarah McBride, the first out trans member of Congress. Were she not running against the incumbent’s brother I’d say she’s the favorite, but Liberati is backed by some unions and basically every business group with money to spend, because being a pigheaded transphobe correlates pretty well with being a corporate hack these days. Gary Schlack, an Allen Park city councilman with a sign theft habit, is off to the side, self-funding.
HD-03
East Dearborn and parts of Detroit | Trump+7.3
Alabas Farhat (i) vs. Othman Alaansi vs. Hussein Berry
Alabas Farhat was going to skate to another term without serious primary opposition…until Hussein Berry, previously a candidate for SD-02, claims he heard that Farhat was going to go for SD-02, which Farhat vehemently denies. (Obviously, since Farhat is seeking reelection.) Berry, the former president of the Dearborn Board of Education, also abruptly resigned from that board shortly after launching his SD-02 campaign last year, and has raised and spent little for his state House campaign, making Farhat an obvious favorite even before you consider Farhat’s widespread support from his colleagues and labor unions. Othman Alaansi is a phantom candidate who should place third.
HD-04
NW Detroit | Harris+85.1
Krystal Larsosa vs. Anthony McDonald vs. Tyus Monroe vs. Regina Ross
The race to succeed nutso state Rep. Karen Whitsett is a mess. Former House Speaker Joe Tate, the Chamber of Commerce, and some unions are backing perennial candidate Regina Ross, the UAW is backing Tyus Monroe, and a lot of current state legislators are backing (and funding) nonprofit leader Krystal Larsosa, while Anthony McDonald, a former staffer for former Detroit councilman Fred Durhal III, is also running. Every candidate is painfully vague on policy, and while the Chamber endorsement serves as a good anti-endorsement for Ross, nothing tells me who of the remaining three is the most progressive or even just the least bad. I guess Larsosa?
HD-05
NW Detroit and Oak Park | Harris+76.5
Crystal Bailey vs. Candace Calloway vs. Soummer Moore-Crawford
Educator and community activist Candace Calloway and former Oak Park School Board Vice President Crystal Bailey appear to be the two leading candidates for the open seat of state Rep. Regina Weiss. Weiss, a progressive, is backing Calloway, as are the mayors of both Oak Park and Detroit. Bailey, for her part, has some labor unions, most prominently UAW, backing her, as well as some area electeds like state Sen. Sylvia Santana. Soummer Moore-Crawford seems to be the odd woman out in this race.
HD-06
Royal Oak to Birmingham | Harris+32.2
Charlie Gandy-Thompson vs. David Lauer vs. Melanie Macey
This is functionally a two-way race between political operative David Lauer and Oak Park City Commissioner Melanie Macey; Charlie Gandy-Thompson is a phantom candidate. Lauer is endorsed by a smattering of local electeds, while Macey has more of them in her corner—and her endorsers skew progressive (Natalie Price is among them) while Lauer’s endorsers betray more moderate sympathies (state Rep. Noah Arbit is the big tell.) Labor unions and even the local papers are mostly going with Macey, though the Michigan Education Association broke for Lauer.
HD-07
Highland Park, Hamtramck, central Detroit | Harris+58.6
Tonya Myers Phillips (i) vs. Seema Ahmad vs. Oliver Gantt
Neither perennial candidate Oliver Gantt nor Hamtramck lawyer Seema Ahmad is mounting much of a campaign to unseat state Rep. Tonya Myers Phillips, who shouldn’t have any trouble winning another term in this district including parts of Detroit as well as the city’s two enclaves, Highland Park and majority-Muslim Hamtramck.
HD-08
Central Detroit to Ferndale | Harris+76.7
Helena Scott (i) vs. Deanne Austin vs. Chris Gilmer-Hill vs. Fedor Kinaya
Democratic socialist Chris Gilmer-Hill challenged state Rep. Helena Scott in 2024 and lost badly, 73-27. However, this time Gilmer-Hill actually has the backing of his DSA chapter and a bunch of local elected officials, including Donavan McKinney and Rashida Tlaib, as well as major unions (SEIU and UNITE HERE) and progressive groups like the Working Families Party. Scott also got herself in hot water by implying she wouldn’t support Abdul El-Sayed if he were the nominee—a comment she had to walk back (while attacking the reporter who accurately reported her comments), but one which nevertheless could do a lot of damage if voters are aware of it. I suppose we’ll find out on Tuesday whether Scott’s comments broke through.
HD-09
Downtown Detroit | Harris+83.2
Willie Burton vs. Anthony Eid vs. Darryl Ervin vs. Arthur Harrington vs. Bryant Hepp vs. Karriem Holman vs. Patricia Hurt vs. Toni Mua vs. Rick Silva
Centrist favorite Arthur Harrington is playing dirty the exact same way as Frank Liberati in HD-02: attempting to have a trans woman opponent knocked off the ballot for failing to use her deadname. In this race, the victim of his dirty tactics is activist Toni Mua—and it’s already come at a concrete cost to Harrington: the only reason we know he allegedly did this is because the Michigan Democratic Party’s LGBT caucus publicly rescinded its endorsement of him over it. Also in the running here are former Detroit Board of Police Commission member Willie Burton, who has some unions in his corner; former state redistricting commissioner Anthony Eid; former state legislative staffer Darryl Ervin; social worker Bryant Hepp; lobbyist Karriem Holman; phantom candidate Patricia Hurt; and tentative labor favorite Rick Silva. It’s a total crapshoot as far as I can tell; I’d be unsurprised by any of Harrington, Burton, Mua, Eid, Ervin, Holman, and Silva registering meaningful support at the ballot box, but I’m rooting for Mua, who seems the most progressive.
HD-10
NE Detroit, Harper Woods, the Grosse Pointes | Harris+36.5
Veronica Paiz (i) vs. Andrew Cyburt vs. Ryan Nelson
Ryan Nelson is an apparent gadfly who ran in a neighboring district last cycle, and Andrew Cyburt is an eccentric weirdo who wants to…put legislation on GitHub or something? State Rep. Veronica Paiz should have no trouble securing another term, Cyburt’s endorsement from a Teamsters local aside.
HD-11
North-central Detroit and southern Warren | Harris+59.8
Cranstana Anderson vs. Kimberly Fisher vs. Michael Howard
This is the seat left open by Donavan McKinney’s congressional run, and it may end up being a geographic battle. Macomb County Commissioner Michael Howard is backed by organized labor and lots of moderate Michigan Democrats like Tyrone Carter and Joe Tate, while Detroit nonprofit head Kimberly Fisher is backed by McKinney and other area progressives, as well as some moderate Detroit Democrats like Helena Scott who presumably want to keep this district in Detroit hands. (Former Detroit City Council candidate Cranstana Anderson is likely to place third here.)
HD-14
Warren, Center Line, Hazel Park, Madison Heights | Harris+11.2
Mike McFall (i) vs. Minhaj Chowdhury
Mike McFall is facing a primary from labor advocate Minhaj Chowdhury, and he’s spending at least a little bit of money to ensure victory—while Chowdhury, who has also served in volunteer leadership positions in the local Democratic Party, hasn't even filed any campaign finance reports.
HD-15
West Dearborn, Dearborn Heights | Trump+2.1
Jalal Abdallah vs. Leslie Herrick vs. Gary Woronchak
Former state Rep. and Wayne County Commissioner Gary Woronchak is the moderate candidate for the seat being left behind by Erin Byrnes. Woronchak was last seen losing the 2021 Dearborn mayoral race to progressive Abdullah Hammoud and attacking Hammoud for daring to campaign for the votes of Dearborn’s large Arab and Muslim community, so it’s best if he loses. That leaves Dearborn Heights attorney Jalal Abdallah and former Dearborn City Council President Leslie Herrick. Herrick is favored by Byrnes, area Rep. Rashida Tlaib, and a number of other progressive Michigan politicians, including Abbas Alawieh and UMich Regent Democratic nominee Amir Makled. Abdallah has the Michigan Education Association in his corner as well as Emgage and a number of Dearborn Heights elected officials, including its mayor. I think this could break down along geographic lines (Dearborn vs. Dearborn Heights), ethnic lines (Arab vs. white), or be a total crapshoot without much of a pattern to the results.
HD-19
Farmington Hills, Southfield, Birmingham | Harris+32.2
Samantha Steckloff (i) vs. Brandon Young
Security consultant Brandon Young is running a campaign with suspiciously AI-flavored graphics and no money, so incumbent Samantha Steckloff should have no trouble securing another term in this safe Oakland County district.
HD-32
Ypsilanti | Harris+51.4
Jimmie Wilson Jr. (i) vs. William Riney
State Rep. Jimmie Wilson Jr. is being challenged by eccentric local activist Bill Riney, but should be fine because Riney doesn’t seem to have much of a campaign to speak of.
HD-41
Kalamazoo | Harris+51
Jen Strebs vs. Jessica Swartz
Incumbent Julie Rogers is leaving this seat behind to run for state Senate, setting up a head-to-head between attorney Jessica Swartz and Kalamazoo County Commission chair Jen Strebs. Progressive groups and local elected officials prefer Strebs, who wants single-payer healthcare, a data center moratorium, and a state crackdown on for-profit utilities. Swartz, who was the Democratic nominee against local U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga in 2024 and dropped her bid for a rematch to make way for DCCC pick Sean McCann, is clearly the moderate pick here, cashing checks from the state association of realtors and touting lots of endorsements from outside the district. Root for Strebs, but don’t be surprised if Swartz’s money and name recognition from the 2024 congressional run carry her over the finish line.
HD-53
Pontiac | Harris+28.8
Brenda Carter (i) vs. Robert Anderlie
Robert Anderlie appears to be a family law attorney, but that’s the only trace of an online or public presence he has, and he’s filed no campaign finance reports either—a quintessential phantom candidate. State Rep. Brenda Carter should have no trouble in this safely Democratic district.
HD-61
Central Macomb County | Trump+5.1
Denise Mentzer (i) vs. Mahbube Khan
Mahbube Khan isn’t quite a phantom candidate, but he’s running primarily via a Facebook page as the candidate of the district’s Bangladeshi minority—a large and lopsidedly Democratic voting bloc in Michigan, but still a minority, especially in Macomb County, even if Khan manages to get a bloc vote in his favor without running a real campaign. Denise Mentzer should have no trouble defeating him for renomination.
HD-74
Southern Lansing and suburbs | Harris+33.8
Aaron Iturralde vs. Harold Pope vs. TyJuan Thirdgill
Army veteran and local NAACP leader Harold Pope is the clear frontrunner for this district and also clearly the most moderate candidate, complete with a website fresh out of 2006. Backed by Lansing Mayor Andy Schor and outgoing state Rep. Kara Hope, Pope is also backed by the Lansing Chamber of Commerce—and having the Chamber on your side is never a good sign for a Democrat. Progressive voters in the district have a choice between public school teacher Aaron Iturralde and former Delhi Township Trustee TyJuan Thirdgill, both of whom take a slightly stronger line against data centers—favoring moratoriums—than Pope, who only says he wants “guardrails.”
HD-80
East Grand Rapids to Kentwood | Harris+17.9
Lily Cheng-Schulting vs. Kristen Fauson vs. Kris Pachla
Disability advocate and Democratic activist Lily Cheng-Schulting has run for state House twice before, in 2020 and 2022. In 2020, she won the Democratic nomination for a safely red district on Michigan’s old, gerrymandered maps, then lost in the general election; in 2022, she narrowly lost the primary for this seat to Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs, the establishment favorite then and a candidate for state Senate now. Once again, Cheng-Schulting, a progressive, is not the establishment favorite; that would be Kent County Commissioner Kris Pachla, who has labor and local electeds in his corner. (Somewhat encouragingly, Pachla feels the need to call himself a progressive too.) Kristen Fauson is a local school board member who has opposed book bans and mostly draws support from other school board members.
HD-82
Grand Rapids | Harris+51.3
Kristian Grant (i) vs. Robert Womack
Now-state Rep. Kristian Grant beat Kent County Commissioner Robert Womack by less than 1% in the 2022 primary for this seat, and Womack is back for a rematch, complete with an amusingly bad website—he has his college transcript on there for some reason? What is going on?
The race has gotten incredibly contentious, with Womack and Grant slinging accusations of stalking and harassment back and forth. Grant has a hefty financial advantage and should be able to use that plus four years of incumbency to turn back Womack by a much greater margin than four years ago.
HD-84
Grand Rapids, Walker | Harris+11.2
Justin Rackham vs. Khristian Silvis
Technically, Khristian Silvis is running against Justin Rackham, but Rackham’s answers to simple candidate questionnaires are so half-assed that it’s clear Silvis, an Army veteran and Rep. Hillary Scholten’s district director, is the overwhelming favorite for the seat left open by SD-30 candidate Carol Glanville.