2026 Hawaiʻi Preview
Aloha, and welcome to the Hawaiʻi primary preview. For a small state, it's a remarkably busy primary season; I decided to skip the primaries for governor and HI-02 as neither is particularly serious and the incumbents should win easily. Polls close at 7 PM Hawaiʻi time, which is 1 AM Eastern; if you're watching any of these races from afar, either plan on a late night or catch up with the results tomorrow morning.
As a reminder: this is the final non-paywalled Primary School issue. Starting with an FEC roundup out tomorrow for Florida and CA-14, Primary School will be paywalled at the three-tier pricing structure outlined here. (Please feel free to continue forwarding the issues via email after the paywall goes up; I encourage you to share the newsletter with anyone you think might be interested.)
With that out of the way, here we go!
HI-01
Urban Honolulu | Harris+24.7
Ed Case (i) vs. Jarrett Keohokalole
Total IEs: $100,000
Pro-Keohokalole: $100,000
Ed Case has long frustrated progressives, and we have every reason to be frustrated. He’s an ardent Blue Dog who voted for an earlier version of the SAVE Act and always finds himself on the rightmost end of the House Democratic caucus. Ideologically similar House Democrats have been retiring and getting picked off in primaries for a long time now—and those Democrats have largely hailed from districts far more conservative than Hawai‘i’s First, a densely-populated, bright-blue district contained within Honolulu’s urban core. After an underfunded challenge fell far short in 2022, progressives took stock of the situation, asked around for more established candidates, and finally got their wish in 2025—twice. State Rep. Della Au Belatti and state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole both entered the race against Case, threatening to split the anti-Case vote and let the Blue Dog escape with a plurality; it was only practically at the filing deadline that Belatti switched over to the LG race, which lacked a progressive before she entered. With a vote-splitting situation narrowly avoided, progressives doubled down on their quest to retire Honolulu’s congressman.
Keohokalole has largely, though not entirely, missed out on endorsements from major national progressive groups (Indivisible and Our Revolution being two major exceptions.) In my view, he’s more than made up for it with overwhelming support from the Hawai‘i labor movement—even the state’s police union is backing him, along with all the more politically progressive unions like those representing nurses, teachers, and government workers, and middle-of-the-road building trades unions. He’s also outraised Case in the home stretch of the race, and Case is not taking the race as seriously as he should; a very large sum of money remained unspent in Case’s campaign account as of the last FEC report, and his allies bluntly tell Jewish Insider that he’s phoning it in, even as Keohokalole allies set up a PAC, Future Progress, that has pumped $100,000 in digital advertising into the race.
This has been something of a sleeper race, but it’s progressives’ next chance to knock out an incumbent House Democrat in a primary, and probably their best one for the rest of the year. Four House Democrats have lost to progressive primary challengers so far this year; will Case make five?
HI-Lt. Gov.
Della Au Belatti vs. John Choi vs. Ku Lono Cuadra vs. Derek Kawakami vs. Sam Puletasi
Functionally, this is a two-person race between Honolulu state Rep. Della Au Belatti and Kaua‘i Mayor Derek Kawakami. Belatti is the progressive option; she dropped out of HI-01 to make way for Jarrett Keohokalole and has promised to be an anti-corruption watchdog as LG, a salient promise with the recent corruption indictment of incumbent Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke. She’s also attacked Kawakami for an old donation from a businessman who went to prison for bribery, sworn off corporate PAC money, and said she plans to be independent from Gov. Josh Green; the last bit has prompted Green to speak out in favor of Kawakami. Kawakami, for his part, has been more circumspect about the governor (and more vague in general about his ambitions for the mostly powerless office), and has declined to swear off corporate PAC money. Honolulu attorney John Choi is there to catch voters unhappy with both leading options. Belatti is preferred by progressive groups like Indivisible and is pretty clearly the better choice.
SD-02
Big Island: Puna | Harris+26.9
Joy San Buenaventura (i) vs. Tanya Yamanaka Aynessazian
Joy San Buenaventura is a long-serving, low-key legislator from the southeastern corner of the Big Island. Author and nonprofit leader Tanya Yamanaka Aynessazian doesn’t seem to have been able to get anyone to buy in to her challenge to San Buenaventura, and she was last seen losing a nearby state House primary 71-29 in 2024.
SD-10
Honolulu: Kapahulu, Maunalani Heights, Saint Louis Heights | Harris+42.5
Les Ihara Jr. (i) vs. Jackson Sayama
Forty-year state legislator Les Ihara Jr. faces a tough primary challenge from a much younger fellow legislator, state Rep. Jackson Sayama. Sayama has convinced quite a few big unions, as well as Planned Parenthood’s political arm, to dump Ihara for him. The generational angle is obvious: Sayama, who was first elected to the state House in 2020 at 23 years old, is younger than Ihara’s 32-year Senate career—and Ihara did an eight-year stint in the state House before that, making him an exceptionally senior legislator. Sayama’s biggest issue is establishing a statewide paid family leave program, hoping to add Hawai‘i to the growing list of blue states which provide that benefit.
SD-13
Honolulu: Nuʻuanu, Punchbowl, Chinatown | Harris+34.7
Lei Ahu Isa vs. James Logue vs. Tricia Mayumi Kwai Lin Nakamatsu vs. Jordan Nakamura vs. Lynn Vasquez
Longtime state Sen. Karl Rhoads decided to retire this year, teeing up a crowded primary to succeed him. James Logue is a perennial candidate who’s unlikely to break through. Deputy Attorney General Tricia Nakamatsu is the favorite to succeed him, with a fairly unified front from business and labor in support of her campaign. The exception to that unified front is the nurses’ union’s support for progressive Jordan Nakamura, who is also backed by the progressive group Our Hawai‘i and the Sierra Club. Former state Rep. and former Office of Hawaiian Affairs Trustee Lei Ahu Isa’s best bet is probably name recognition—she held statewide office as an OHA Trustee until 2024, when she was unseated by former state Sen. Brickwood Galuteria. Former neighborhood board member Lynn Vasquez rounds out the field here.
SD-14
Honolulu: Kalihi, Moanalua | Harris+18.1
Donna Mercado Kim (i) vs. Christy Kikue MacPherson
State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim is a controversial conservative Democrat who has long been quite powerful in the state’s politics, including a stint as Senate President. She’s made more than a few enemies along the way, particularly in organized labor—and after Mercado Kim blew up at school principals and other educators who showed up to testify on a bill to restructure the state Department of Education, the Hawai‘i Government Employees Association, the main union for public workers in the state, is taking this one personally. They’re backing community activist and anti-poverty nonprofit worker Christy Kikue MacPherson and campaigning aggressively against the incumbent’s reelection. Sensing an opportunity to take down a titan of Hawai‘i politics, a handful of other unions, Planned Parenthood, and the Sierra Club have also jumped in on MacPherson’s side, hoping to bring an end to Mercado Kim’s very long career.
SD-17
O‘ahu: Mililani, Wahiawā | Harris+15.6
Donovan Dela Cruz (i) vs. Nani Brown
Senate Ways & Means Chair Donovan Dela Cruz faces a scrappy challenge from Nani Brown, a journeyman electrician who was motivated to run by her opposition to a $27 million pedestrian bridge between Wahiawā and Whitmore Village, which she says is wasteful, impractical, and disrespectful to sacred Native Hawaiian sites. Brown, who is massively outgunned financially, would rather the incumbent focus on pocketbook issues and more mundane infrastructure projects like sidewalk repair; she also faults him for his well-known reputation as a bully who’s pointedly indifferent to conflicts of interest, a potentially potent line of attack as all levels of Hawai‘i politics are rocked by the last few years’ cascade of corruption scandals.
SD-25
O‘ahu: East Honolulu, Kailua, Waimānalo | Harris+30.2
Chris Lee (i) vs. Bobby Silva
Surfer and former Hollywood stuntman Bobby Silva is running a social media-forward campaign without organizational support, which should leave state Sen. Chris Lee in good shape for another term.
HD-02
Big Island: Hilo | Harris+38.7
Susan Lee Loy (i) vs. Cristina Holt
Local Democratic Party activist and district leader Cristina Holt is running a sharply left-wing primary challenge to first-term state Rep. Sue Lee Loy. Loy, for her part, hasn’t even updated her website since 2024, much less done anything else of note—the website still says she’s a Hawai‘i County Councilor seeking to make the jump to the state House, and it lists at least one major union endorsement from a union that has actually endorsed Holt this time around (the Hawai‘i Nurses Association.) Holt wants to tax the rich, demilitarize the military-heavy state, and provide a full suite of social democratic welfare state programs from healthcare to housing.
HD-03
Big Island: Hilo | Harris+24.9
Chris Todd (i) vs. Ku‘ulei Keawekane
State Rep. Chris Todd just took over the powerful House Finance Committee last year after House Democrats booted Maui Rep. Kyle Yamashita. Native Hawaiian singer and activist Ku‘ulei Keawekane is mostly campaigning on social media, which almost certainly isn’t enough to knock down a powerful incumbent serving since 2017.
HD-04
Big Island: Puna | Harris+28.6
Greggor Ilagan (i) vs. Tamlyn Hunt
Like a few other progressive challengers, Tamlyn Hunt was able to convince the Greens and seemingly nobody else that he was worth backing. Gregg Ilagan should therefore be safe, especially with his unified labor and business backing.
HD-05
Big Island: Ka‘ū | Harris+27.1
Jeanné Kapela (i) vs. Matt Kānealiʻi-Kleinfelder
It’s not entirely clear why Hawai‘i County Councilman Matt Kāneali‘i-Kleinfelder is challenging progressive state Rep. Jeanné Kapela, other than because he’s termed out of the county council and wants to stay in office (and isn’t content to live vicariously through his wife Dawn’s candidacy for his open county council seat.)
HD-10
Maui: Wailuku, Waikapū | Harris+26.5
Tyson Miyake (i) vs. Kiʻi Kahoʻohanohano
Tyson Miyake is an unremarkable member of the majority who was appointed to represent this Maui seat in 2023, and who recently ascended into leadership as one of three Majority Whips. Native Hawaiian activist Ki‘i Kaho‘ohanohano has struggled to gain traction with organizations and unions other than the Green Party of Hawai‘i (which, to be fair, regularly endorses Democratic candidates in Hawai‘i.)
HD-12
Central Maui | Harris+30.9
Kyle Yamashita (i) vs. Keoni Kuoha
Keoni Kuoha is a progressive challenger who wants to bring transparency to the embattled House Democratic caucus, make it broadly easier to build housing, and raise a variety of taxes on the rich and speculators. He’s endorsed by the state teachers’ and nurses’ unions and the state Sierra Club chapter. Incumbent Kyle Yamashita has represented Maui in the state House since 2004—and is on the outs with his own party for what they see as unsteady leadership of the House Finance Committee, which led them to remove him as chair last year.
HD-14
West Maui | Harris+16
Kanamu Balinbin vs. Ashley Olson vs. Sne Patel
This race is a mess all around, so this will have to double as a brief general election primer. Incumbent Elle Cochran switched parties earlier this year out of general dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party and, in her own telling, a realization that she often voted with the GOP anyway. To take her down, three Democrats are mounting campaigns—but they’re not alone. Green Party nominee Pā‘ele Kiakona, an organizer and community activist who has been heavily involved in the rebuilding efforts after the devastating wildfires which swept this part of Maui in 2023, is running a quite serious campaign of his own; many of the state’s largest unions and Planned Parenthood’s political arm have endorsed Kiakona either jointly or on his own, and he may have a real chance in November. The strongest Democratic candidate to take out Cochran is probably Ashley Olson, the Maui chapter president of the state teachers’ union; Sne Patel is preferred by building trades unions and business groups, marking him as the more conservative Democrat of the two. Kanamu Balinbin is a chef and community volunteer with long-term relief efforts for fire survivors who also has a history as a perennial candidate.
HD-17
Southwest Kauaʻi and Niʻihau | Harris+20.8
Dee Morikawa (i) vs. Chad Schimmelfennig
Chad Schimmelfennig’s website mostly consists of an AI-generated thumbnail for a podcast interview he did, which paints a slightly unfair picture of the guy, who seems to be a fairly normal veteran, community college instructor, and Native Hawaiian cultural monitor. Dee Morikawa should still have little trouble winning another term given the lack of organizational support for Schimmelfennig.
HD-19
Southeast O‘ahu | Harris+35.6
Mark Hashem (i) vs. Kahi Pacarro
Mark Hashem has been an exceptionally low-profile state representative for sixteen years, never making many enemies but also never making any waves. Environmental activist Kahi Pacarro, however, takes issue with not just the length of Hashem’s tenure, but with his legislative agenda. Hashem, as chair of the Water and Land Committee, has advanced bills which gutted environmental protections for coastal ecosystems and stonewalled multiple bills which would crack down on pesticide pollution. That was enough to earn Pacarro, who is well-funded to boot, the endorsement of the Sierra Club of Hawai‘i. Pacarro has also won over some union locals and is the choice of progressive groups like Our Hawai‘i, who seem to sense an opportunity here.
HD-21
Honolulu: Maunalani Heights, Saint Louis Heights, Pālolo Valley | Harris+43.2
Ranell Asuega-Fualaau vs. Angie Knight vs. Jake Takaya Morrow vs. Andrew Phomsouvanh vs. Derek Turbin
The favorite for Jackson Sayama’s open state House seat is pretty clearly former state party chair Derek Turbin, who is backed by a broad spectrum of labor unions. However, a quartet of local community activists have stepped up to challenge him. Ranell Asuega-Fualaau and Andrew Phomsouvanh are the chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Pālolo Neighborhood Board; Phomsouvanh is also the communications manager for the Honolulu City Council. The progressive in this race is nonprofit administrator and former legislative staffer Jake Takaya Morrow, backed by state Rep. Kim Coco Iwamoto and the Sierra Club and running on ethics reform and expanded social programs. Diamond Head-Kapahulu-St. Louis Neighborhood Board member Angie Knight rounds out the field with a focus on homelessness, pedestrian safety, and infrastructure upgrades.
HD-24
Honolulu: Waikīkī | Harris+33.2
Adrian Tam (i) vs. Bulla Eastman
Bulla Eastman is a hotel security consultant who’s running a tough-on-crime campaign well to the right of incumbent state Rep. Adrian Tam. Eastman has the statewide police union backing him and is attacking Tam as a do-nothing showboater who is more interested in climbing the ranks of the party than helping out district residents. Bustling, urban, touristy Waikīkī just seems like an odd place to run such a right-wing campaign.
HD-26
Honolulu: Makiki, Papakōlea, Tantalus, Punchbowl | Harris+41.1
Nathan Char vs. Janel Fujinaka vs. Arjuna Heim vs. Ian Ross
All four candidates for Della Au Belatti’s open seat have some level of seriousness to them. Nathan Char is the Makiki Neighborhood Board chair endorsed by the General Contractors’ Association and the Hawai‘i Government Employees Association; Arjuna Heim is a nonprofit leader and former state House staffer; Janel Fujinaka is a current staffer for state Rep. Kim Coco Iwamoto with support from her boss, the UNITE HERE union, LGBT organizations (she would be the second trans Hawai‘i legislator, after Iwamoto herself) and a few other local figures; and Ian Ross is a former Makiki Neighborhood Board chair with the bulk of the organized labor support. Fujinaka is running the hardest to the left of anyone in the field, unsurprising given that her boss Iwamoto successfully primaried then-state House Speaker Scott Saiki from the left in 2024.
HD-28
Honolulu: Chinatown, Iwilei, Sand Island | Harris+23.3
Michael “Cov” Ratcliffe (i) vs. Reno Abihai vs. Nadia Alves vs. Ernest Caravalho vs. Anthony Nagatani
Labor lawyer Michael “Cov” Ratcliffe was appointed to this seat this spring, and he immediately drew no less than four primary challengers. Reno Abihai is running to his right with a focus on crime and harsher sentencing, and the support of police and building trades unions. Nadia Alves is the unanimous pick of just about every progressive group in the state, and has also won over some unions (notably the nurses’ union and UNITE HERE.) Ernest Caravalho is a perennial candidate, and Anthony Nagatani is a Democratic operative running on badly-needed infrastructure upgrades.
HD-29
Honolulu: Kalihi Valley | Harris+11.5
Ikaika Hussey (i) vs. John Mizuno
Former state Rep. John Mizuno resigned to become Gov. Green’s homelessness coordinator, then resigned from that job about a year later and ran for state House again, seeking to take back the state House seat that progressive labor organizer Ikaika Hussey won in 2024 by beating Mizuno’s wife, appointed state Rep. May Mizuno. Mizuno has a considerable financial advantage (though to be fair, Hussey’s 2024 defeat of May Mizuno was not exactly close.) As for policy? Well, Hussey came up through the Hawai‘i progressive movement while Mizuno…very much did not.
HD-30
Honolulu: Kalihi Kai | Harris+2.4
Shirley Ann Templo (i) vs. Faatea Faatea vs. Kekoaopololū “Kekoa” Kealoha
Shirley Ann Templo unseated state Rep. Sonny Ganaden in 2024 by a handful of votes. The labor movement, which had gotten Ganaden elected in the first place by primarying the previous representative in 2020, wants their seat back. Fortunately for Templo, though, the labor movement doesn’t exactly have a consensus on which challenger they want to take her down. United Public Workers business agent Faatea Faatea has the AFL-CIO, AFSCME, and his own union in his corner, while the teachers and nurses unions prefer movement progressive Kekoa Kealoha, who is also backed by Our Hawai‘i and Planned Parenthood’s political arm.
HD-36
O‘ahu: Waipahu | Harris+1.7
Daisy Hartsfield (i) vs. Eric Barsatan vs. Maurice Morita
Daisy Hartsfield faces lobbyist Maurice Morita and businessman and Filipino community advocate Eric Barsatan, neither of whom seems a particularly serious threat to Hartsfield despite biographies indicating they’re fully capable of being serious candidates. (Morita’s responses to candidate questionnaires are jarringly insubstantial for someone whose day job is lobbying.)
HD-37
O‘ahu: Mililani, Waipio Gentry | Harris+22.3
Trish La Chica (i) vs. Trevor Nagamine
State Rep. Trish La Chica, a former journalist and policy analyst, was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2023 and quickly carved out a niche for herself in the legislature on education. Unfortunately, she also broke with the party to vote against a bill to protect and expand gender-affirming care in 2024, so I suppose we root for Mililani neighborhood councilor Trevor Nagamine.
HD-39
O‘ahu: Royal Kunia, ‘Ewa | Harris+2.7
Loren Doctolero vs. Corey Rosenlee
‘Ewa Neighborhood Board member Corey Rosenlee is the former president of the Hawai‘i State Teachers Association, the progressive choice, and the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination to flip this seat—since he’s already been the nominee against GOP incumbent Elijah Pierick twice before, losing by just 11 votes in 2024. (Pierick is giving this seat up to run for state Senate in SD-19.) His former colleague on the ‘Ewa Neighborhood Board, Loren Doctolero, is running a vague campaign backed by some business groups like the General Contractors Association of Hawai‘i.
HD-44
O‘ahu: Nānākuli to Maʻili | Trump+12.6
Darius Kila (i) vs. Michael Kahikina
Darius Kila is a reasonably productive member of the legislature who chairs the House Transportation Committee, while Michael Kahikina is a former state representative running an exceptionally low-profile, low-tech campaign. Kila is likely to advance to November to defend this red seat on O‘ahu’s southwestern coast; he was lucky enough to be uncontested in the general election in 2024, but Republicans found someone this time.
HD-51
O‘ahu: Kailua, Waimānalo | Harris+26.3
Lisa Marten (i) vs. Steve Haumschild vs. Micah Kalama
Lisa Marten is the chair of the Human Services and Homelessness committee, and a state representative since 2020. Steve Haumschild was an anti-lockdown activist in June 2020, which, man, Jesus Christ. Coach Micah Kalama seems nice, and also very green, probably too much so to pose a threat to Marten.
