2026 Arizona Primary Preview

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Congress

AZ-01

Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, northeast Phoenix, Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community, Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation | Trump+3.1
Marlene Galán-Woods vs. Rick McCartney vs. Amish Shah vs. Jonathan Treble

This race seems to be between Dr. and former state Rep. Amish Shah and former TV anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, the widow of the late anti-Trump Republican Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods. (Self-funding local businessman Rick McCartney reminds me very much of countless other self-funders who said the right things and spent a lot of money on their way to a deeply unimpressive finish in the actual election results.) Shah was the nominee for this seat in 2024, falling short in a red year, while Galán-Woods was an unsuccessful primary candidate that same year, placing a close third in the primary. The DCCC is now intervening on Galán-Woods’s behalf, but that’s not because Shah is a progressive they want to stop—Shah is obnoxiously moderate and was disliked by his Democratic colleagues during his time in the legislature for his eagerness to work across the aisle, so the DCCC almost certainly thinks he’s just a bad candidate. Galán-Woods, a former Republican endorsed by Sen. Mark Kelly, is no progressive and in fact seems kind of crappy, but in light of Shah’s legislative record it’s hard to be too upset by the DCCC meddling to screw him over; unfortunately, the way they’re going about it—falsely claiming Shah supports conversion therapy—is fucking gross. There's also a wild card: a self-funder, Jonathan Treble, is weirdly getting backed with more than $600,000 in ads from a DCCC-aligned PAC, Crush MAGA PAC, that is simultaneously spending to air misleading ads attacking progressive MI-07 candidate Will Lawrence. Treble also has a fair amount of buy-in from Arizona Democratic elected officials across the ideological spectrum. The winner of this mess will face whoever Republicans nominate to succeed Republican Rep. David Schweikert, who is vacating this purple seat (it narrowly voted for Biden in 2020) to run a losing campaign for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

AZ-04

Ahwatukee, Phoenix; Tempe, Mesa, Chandler | Harris+6.7
Greg Stanton (i) vs. Kai Newkirk

It’s somewhat poetic that a democratic socialist is now waging a semi-serious primary challenge in Kyrsten Sinema’s old district (she represented a version of this district when it was numbered AZ-09 in the 2010s.) Incumbent Greg Stanton is, to be sure, no Sinema—on votes that are close to party-line, he’s generally not one of the Democratic defectors—but he’s a business-friendly, pro-Israel centrist backed by lots of spending from the AI and crypto industries, and that’s exactly what democratic socialist Kai Newkirk hopes voters take issue with. Unfortunately for Newkirk, his campaign seems to be mid-derailment, as a number of his endorsers, including the Arizona Young Democrats, have withdrawn their endorsements at the last minute due to undisclosed allegations of concerning behavior in the wake of Graham Platner’s crash-and-burn exit from the Maine Senate race.

State Legislature

First, some necessary background. Arizona, unlike most states, uses the same districts for both chambers of its state legislature; other states that do this include Washington and New Jersey. As in both of those states, Arizonans elect one member of the upper house and two members of the lower house per state legislative district; as in New Jersey, but not Washington, all candidates for the lower house run on one ballot, with the top two finishers winning. (Washington holds an entirely separate election for each of each district's two House seats; candidates must file for District X, Position 1 or 2.) Consequently, I will group Senate and House races together where they're in the same district.

Here we go!

LD-06

Senate
Jamescita Peshlakai vs. Myron Tsosie
House
Mae Peshlakai (i) vs. Angela Maloney vs. Ian Teller

The race to represent most of Arizona’s Native reservations, as well as a chunk of the city of Flagstaff, is a family affair: three of the five Democrats on the ballot in this extremely Democratic district are relatives running as a slate. Incumbent state Rep. Mae Peshlakai is seeking reelection alongside her sister, Angela Maloney, while Rep. Peshlakai’s daughter Jamescita Peshlakai—a former state senator for this district herself—seeks a return to her old job. The Peshlakai slate is participating in Arizona’s publicly-funded Clean Elections program, but their opponents—state Rep. Myron Tsosie in the Senate race and Young Democrats activist Ian Teller in the House race—are not. It’s hard to figure out the ideological divides in this race at a glance, but donors reveal a clear divide, at least in the Senate race: the PAC for the state’s main electrical utility, Pinnacle West, gave $2,000 to Tsosie. (Bizarrely, former Maryland U.S. Rep. and Total Wine magnate David Trone and his wife June each gave $5,400.) Endorsements are few and far between here, but what I can find provides some further clarity: the Peshlakai slate is endorsed by Save Our Schools Arizona, which organizes against Arizona’s massive school voucher program and in support of traditional public schools, in alignment with Arizona’s teachers’ unions.

LD-08

Scottsdale, Tempe, east-central Phoenix; Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community | Harris+19.6
Senate
Lauren Kuby (i) vs. Deborah Nardozzi
House
Janeen Connolly (i) vs. Brian Garcia (i) vs. Claudia Kline

Former state Rep. Deborah Nardozzi is running a Chamber of Commerce-backed primary challenge to progressive state Sen. Lauren Kuby, which is all I need to know to lose all interest in Nardozzi. Unfortunately, Nardozzi has quite a few endorsements from elected officials, including some progressives, and some buy-in from organized labor. For her part, Kuby also has a ton of endorsements from elected officials and labor unions (as well as just about every progressive group under the hot Arizona sun.) The Senate race is contentious and explicitly ideological; at a debate, Kuby relentlessly attacked Nardozzi's corporate donors while Nardozzi tried to frame herself as a unifying consensus-builder. On the House side of things, progressive activist Claudia Kline is running a shoestring challenge to incumbent state Reps. Janeen Connolly and Brian Garcia—but she’s really just making a run at Connolly, a Chamber-backed centrist Democrat, and not Garcia, a solid progressive.

LD-20

Tucson | Harris+43.2
Senate
Alma Hernandez vs. Rocque Perez
House
Betty Villegas (i) vs. Genoveva Diaz vs. Sally Ann Gonzales vs. Ben Koehler

The marquee Democratic state legislative primary in Arizona is happening here in Tucson. Former state Rep. Alma Hernandez is a member of the Hernandez political family, a pro-business, pro-Israel Democratic political family in Tucson with three politician members: Alma, former state Rep. and failed congressional candidate Daniel, and current state Rep. Consuelo, who currently represents a neighboring district. All three Hernandezes are notable for being objectively terrible Democrats who love voting for atrocious Republican shit, which is why local Democrats are highly skeptical of Hernandez. However, Hernandez has a mountain of money thanks to her friends in big business, and she’s used it to outspend 27-year-old progressive Rocque Perez by a six-figure margin. What Perez lacks in money he hopes to make up for in endorsements: he’s backed by progressive organizations, the statewide and Pima County arms of the AFL-CIO, and just about every non-Hernandez Democrat in Tucson, including state Rep. Betty Villegas, who is running for reelection. However, outgoing state Sen. Sally Ann Gonzales, who is termed out of the state Senate and is running instead for House, is running on a slate with Hernandez and Genoveva Diaz, so it seems likely that moderates will snag at least one of this district’s House seats; educator Ben Koehler has no money and only moved to Tucson recently.

LD-21

Tucson, Sahuarita, Nogales, Bisbee | Harris+18.6
House
Consuelo Hernandez (i) vs. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton (i) vs. Maritza Higuera vs. Miranda Lopez

As mentioned above, the Hernandez family has one member currently still in office: state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez, an ardently pro-business and pro-Israel centrist like Alma and Daniel. Consuelo is teaming up with challenger Maritza Higuera in an attempt to turf out progressive incumbent state Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton—and, simultaneously, progressives are running their own candidate in Miranda Lopez in the hopes of locking the Hernandez family out of power for good. Lopez, a former Democratic campaign operative, has Tucson DSA, WFP, the state council of the Communications Workers of America, and a handful of local elected officials in her corner—and she also has a financial advantage over Higuera, so if money is any indication, progressives are likelier to see their primary challenge succeed here than moderates are.

LD-22

Western Phoenix, Avondale, Tolleson | Harris+21.1
House
Elda Luna-Nájera (i) vs. Veronica Bejarano-Malone vs. Steven Chapman vs. Gwendolyn Johnston vs. Betsy Muñoz

Elda Luna-Nájera was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2024, and has served in this seat since. Four Democrats are fighting for the right to join her in the legislature, but only two are running well-funded campaigns: progressive Betsy Muñoz and former Avondale Vice Mayor Veronica Bejarano-Malone. Muñoz is also the choice of organized labor, which I hope is the tiebreaker here, because she and Bejarano-Malone are evenly matched financially. There’s also the outside chance that Luna-Nájera’s own scandals, which broke in 2024 after Luna-Nájera’s appointment, catch up to her and lead to both Muñoz and Bejarano-Malone winning.

LD-23

Yuma, Goodyear, Buckeye, Tohono O’odham Nation | Harris+1.8
House
Mariana Sandoval (i) vs. Emilia Cortez vs. Juan Guerrero vs. Naomi Miguel

This district awkwardly runs from Yuma to Phoenix by way of the Tohono O’odham Nation, which straddles the Arizona-Mexico border. While one of its two House seats is held by a Republican, Michele Peña, a Republican state legislator in a Harris district is no better than even odds for reelection in this environment, and that’s being generous.

As for the primary, Democratic incumbent Mariana Sandoval should have little trouble earning one of the two spots on the Democratic ticket in November. The two main contenders for the second spot, Emilia Cortez and Naomi Miguel, both seem reasonably progressive, though only Cortez is endorsed by Sandoval. This contest may end up being more geographic than anything, however; Cortez, an economic development specialist for the Fort Yuma Indian Reservation, is from Yuma, while Miguel, a former staffer for the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva, is Tohono O’odham and hails from her nation’s tribal lands, which are also contained within this district.

LD-24

Phoenix, Glendale | Harris+20.5
House
Lydia Hernandez (i) vs. Lisbeth Arescurenaga vs. Rosa Cantu vs. Alberto Flores

Progressive state Sen. Analise Ortiz is fielding a slate of primary challengers for her district’s two House seats, Lisbeth Arescurenaga and Alberto Flores, to take out conservative state Rep. Lydia Hernandez and her running mate Rosa Cantu. Arescurenaga and Flores have a fair amount of money (surely in part thanks to Ortiz) as well as a long list of endorsements from progressive organizations. It’s not hard to see why: Hernandez was censured last year by the Democratic Party of Legislative District 24 for her voting record, her history of endorsing Republicans, and a bizarre incident wherein Hernandez apparently tried to bring a box cutter into a high school to test their metal detectors. Purging Hernandez from the caucus would make Democrats’ numbers more reliable, either in the minority or the majority; if Democrats are fortunate enough to take control of Arizona state government in November, legislators like Hernandez will be an obstacle to governing—unless primary voters remove them ahead of time.

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