Issue 5

Primary School

— 6 min read

Issue #5

June 23, 2025

Outside $ Tracker

AZ-07

VA-11

Programming note:

Previous primary previews will also be updated to reflect election results this week.

NJ results

The dust has settled, all the races have been called, and New Jersey’s Democratic machine has emerged victorious—but battered and, if they’re smart, humbled. With massive spending advantages across the board, including TV advertising in a number of state legislative primaries and usually totaling a six-figure dollar advantage, the machine won most races; the only incumbent state legislators who lost were the three who ran with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop’s quixotic reform slate (Jessica Ramirez and Barbara McCann Stamato of Jersey City and Garnet Hall of Maplewood.) But Fulop’s reform slate, badly underfunded and shunned by the state’s political establishment, nearly denied a handful of legislators reelection anyway, in three disparate parts of the state. And four candidates unaffiliated with Fulop actually managed to beat the party machine in safely Democratic seats: Ed Rodriguez in Union County’s LD-20, Katie Brennan and Ravi Bhalla in Jersey City and Hoboken’s LD-32, and Kenyatta Stewart in Paterson-based LD-35. The main characteristic uniting all four victorious independent Democrats is simple: they had the money to make it a somewhat fair fight and run a vigorous, professional campaign. Further down the ballot, cracks in the machine appeared in some local races. And across the board, the machine was surprisingly weak with Black and Latino voters—not just in the gubernatorial race, where Ras Baraka dominated with Black and Latino New Jerseyans, but in low-profile legislative and local races across the state. I’ll have a lot more to say sometime in July, exploring the points I’ve made here in greater detail.

VA results

It was a good night for incumbents in Virginia. Richmond’s sheriff and prosecutor cruised to reelection, Norfolk’s reform-oriented progressive prosecutor fended off a well-funded, establishment-backed challenger, and both incumbent state legislators who faced primaries, Patrick Hope of Arlington and Delores McQuinn of Henrico County, easily turned back their challengers.

CA-34

Rep. Jimmy Gomez has beaten back underfunded progressive challenger David Kim three times in a row now, twice by a narrow margin. It may be time for a new face in this ultra-progressive district based in downtown LA—but that new face we’re looking for definitely isn’t Rob Lucero, a former national director for RFK Jr.’s presidential campaign and a former Republican U.S. Senate candidate. Lucero entered the race this past week, claiming there’s “a vacuum of leadership in both parties”—but that vacuum doesn’t need to be filled by someone who worked for RFK Jr. and ran as a Republican for Senate in 2022.

CA-50

Youth activist and scientist Aishwarya “Sparky” Mitra, a former president of the UCSD College Democrats, filed with the FEC in this San Diego-based district, held by centrist-to-conservative Democrat Scott Peters.

FL-23

Political consultant Oliver Adams Larkin appears to have filed with the FEC in this Broward County district, held by conservative Democrat Jared Moskowitz.

IL-Gov, IL-Lt. Gov.

Illinois doesn’t have term limits, which means second-term Gov. JB Pritzker still looms over the 2026 gubernatorial race. As the billionaire, who’s become something of a favorite to many Democrats for his apparent possession of an actual spine, makes his choice, he’ll also have to consider a related question: who does he want to run with? Gubernatorial candidates in Illinois select their running mates before the primary, and Pritzker’s two-time running mate, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, is running for Senate. Politico’s Shia Kapos, who says Pritzker is expected to seek a third term, mentions Deputy Gov. Andy Manar, a former state senator from rural downstate Illinois; state Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, who has represented Peoria in the state House since 2009; former Deputy Gov. Christian Mitchell, a longtime Pritzker confidant and staffer; and Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia, who has held that office since 2017.

IL-Sen

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is trying to create the impression that he’s the frontrunner in this race, and he’s out with another poll showing he might not be wrong about that. The latest internal poll from GBAO shows Krishnamoorthi with 32% of the vote, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton with 19%, and Rep. Robin Kelly with 14%—a gain of 5 for Krishnamoorthi, 1 for Stratton, and 3 for Kelly since an April survey by GBAO. The centrist congressman from the Chicago suburbs has a cool $20 million sitting in his bank account to buttress that lead—though Stratton has billionaire Gov. JB Pritzker backing her, and Kelly has a national network of donors built up over her 12-year career in federal office which is already beginning to bear fruit. This week, Kelly won the endorsements of Elect Democratic Women, the unofficial political arm of the Democratic Women’s Caucus, and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. While Stratton, like Kelly, is a Black woman, the people behind both of the aforementioned PACs—which sometimes spend in primaries—personally know Kelly from her time in Congress, and they apparently like her enough to wade in early.

IL-08

California Rep. Ro Khanna, an idiosyncratic sometimes-progressive-sometimes-Elon Musk fanboy, endorsed progressive outsider Junaid Ahmed for the open seat of Senate candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi, giving Ahmed a bit of a boost as he attempts to break out of a very crowded field that also includes Hanover Park trustee Yasmeen Bankole, entrepreneur Sanjyot Dunung, organizer Christ Kallas, businessman Neil Khot, Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison, and attorney Dan Tully. Ahmed previously challenged Krishnamoorthi in 2022, raising good money and managing 30% of the vote with little organizational support.

MI-13

State Rep. Donavan McKinney is virtually guaranteed a strong fundraising quarter now. Why? Because Bernie Sanders endorsed him. The senator and former presidential candidate’s email list is one of the best sources of grassroots donations in progressive politics, and this week he lent his support to McKinney’s primary challenge against oddball Detroit Rep. Shri Thanedar, an eccentric megamillionaire who self-funds his campaigns. McKinney is also backed by Justice Democrats; Detroit’s other U.S. Representative, Rashida Tlaib; and a long list of state and local elected officials fed up with Thanedar’s notoriously poor constituent services.

NJ-11

With Rep. Mikie Sherrill now favored to be the next governor of New Jersey, ambitious Democrats in northern New Jersey are starting to quietly make moves to succeed her. Chatham Borough Councilman Justin Strickland has already filed with the FEC to begin raising money in advance of a potential bid, and Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Greyzel has indicated interest as well, but they definitely won’t be alone. Former NJ-07 Rep. Tom Malinowski has said he’d be interested in a return to the House—but Malinowski, who now chairs the Hunterdon County Democratic Party, doesn’t live in NJ-11 nor does he live particularly near it, though there are parts of NJ-11 which were located in his old congressional district prior to redistricting. Other potential candidates floated by the New Jersey Globe include Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, who lost to Sherrill in the 2018 primary for a redder version of this seat; Asw. Rosy Bagolie, a moderate from wealthy, high-turnout Livingston; South Orange Mayor Sheena Collum, the running mate of unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Steven Fulop; and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, a former top aide to Gov. Phil Murphy and the husband of Asw. Alixon Collazos-Gill. New Jersey Attorney General Matt Platkin could also shake up the race if he ran—but party leaders may chafe at him even more than Collum, a foe of the Essex County Democratic machine, due to his focus on prosecuting corruption, particularly his indictment of South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross.

VA-11

Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw won the endorsement of the New Democratic Coalition, the House caucus for Democratic representatives who are ideologically moderate but not super aggressive about it like the Blue Dogs. Walkinshaw was the choice of the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, his former boss, prior to the latter’s death last month, and he seems to be favored to take Connolly’s seat in the June 28 firehouse primary to choose a nominee for the September 9 special election in this safely Democratic Northern Virginia district. As mentioned above, he’s also receiving a staggering amount of outside help, particularly from the crypto industry (so, if you live in the district, don’t vote for this guy) that will likely help him rise above a crowded field also including state Sen. Stella Pekarsky, Del. Irene Shin, and former Venezuelan opposition congressman and Latino Victory Fund cofounder Leo Martínez, among other notables.)

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