Issue 3

Programming note: you can expect your first primary preview of the cycle on Saturday morning, covering San Antonio's local elections, followed by an extra-exhaustive New Jersey preview released contemporaneously with next week's regular issue on the morning of Monday, June 9.

AZ-07, IL-08

ASPIRE PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, has issued its first round of endorsements for the 2025-2026 election cycle. Most of their endorsees are running in purple districts, but ASPIRE PAC also waded into two blue districts to back Asian-American candidates. In AZ-07, the PAC endorsed Gen Z activist and Harris campaign alum Deja Foxx, and in IL-08, the PAC endorsed small business owner Sanjyot Dunung, whose entry into that race I missed. The primary for the AZ-07 special election is happening in July, so ASPIRE PAC will have to decide in relatively short order whether they want to spend on Foxx’s behalf to get her through the primary; they have more time to decide with Dunung, who isn’t on the ballot until March of 2026.

Boston Mayor

The first round of Boston’s mayoral election isn’t until September, but Mayor Michelle Wu and challenger Josh Kraft are already trading blows. Kraft has been a longtime fixture in the Boston nonprofit world, but clearly has a soft spot when it comes to his family’s money and the fact that he owes his entire career (and his own considerable wealth) to who his father is: billionaire New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Wu has been gleefully exploiting Kraft’s sensitivity, slamming him as a suburban nepo baby parachuting in to buy City Hall with daddy’s money—and questioning whether he even paid for his own Boston home, which was purchased in 2023 by an LLC registered to the same address as Gillette Stadium, where he used to work until recently as the head of the Patriots’ charitable foundation. Kraft—alongside an allied super PAC—is hitting back at Wu with crime fearmongering (Boston’s violent crime rates sit at record lows) and suburban-brained whining about bike lanes. The race for the top job in New England’s largest city is only going to get uglier and more expensive from here on out.

Hudson County Sheriff

Term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy has been a steadfast ally to the New Jersey machine for years now, and they’ve called in another favor from him in Hudson County, the densely-populated county immediately west of Manhattan containing Jersey City and a number of smaller cities. Murphy endorsed Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis over incumbent Hudson County Sheriff Frank Schillari, officially picking sides in the Hudson County Democratic proxy war. At odds in the proxy war are two factions: the reigning machine, led by Union City boss Brian Stack and Hudson County Executive Craig Guy, and a rather shamelessly opportunistic reform-curious faction, led by Jersey City Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Steve Fulop and North Bergen boss Nick Sacco. Schillari chose to run with Fulop and Sacco, and as a result, the Hudson County Democratic Organization, led by Stack and Guy, fielded Davis to run against him. Murphy has previously backed up Stack-aligned HCDO candidates, so this isn’t much of a surprise, but it’s noteworthy because he’s crossing an incumbent in Schillari.

IL-Sen

It’s been a quiet week in Illinois’s Senate primary, but Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton did roll out a slate of endorsements from across downstate Illinois. All three major candidates in this race hail from the Chicago area—Stratton from Chicago proper, and Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi from the suburbs—so, while the Chicago area casts a sizable majority of the Democratic primary vote, downstate could very well be a free-for-all.

IL-02

A couple new candidates made moves this week. First, Gen Z Democratic activist Adal Regis—whose campaign materials quietly omit the fact that he is a former Clinton 2016 DNC delegate from New York and former leader in the New York State Young Democrats—landed the endorsement of hack commentator Van Jones. No thanks!

Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, an ally of departing Rep. Robin Kelly and the former chair of the board of Planned Parenthood Illinois, also formed an exploratory committee this week. Miller is going to be a candidate to watch.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Robert Peters’s campaign continues to gain steam, as the progressive from Chicago won the endorsements of Bernie Sanders and the College Democrats of America.

IL-09

Rep. Sean Casten, who represents a chunk of suburban Chicagoland in the House, has endorsed Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss for Jan Schakowsky’s open House seat. Biss faces a field that already includes journalist/influencer Kat Abughazaleh and state Sen. Laura Fine, with plenty of time for more candidates to join.

MA-Sen

Teacher and fantasy sports writer Alex Rikleen launched a long-shot primary challenge to Sen. Ed Markey this week, arguing for Democrats to actually live up to their 2024 rhetoric regarding Donald Trump. As he told Politico’s Kelly Garrity:

“Democrats the whole last campaign, the overwhelming message was ‘existential threat, existential threat,’...And Ed Markey has been around for—this is his seventh new Republican administration—and I don’t see any difference in how he is responding to this new Republican administration versus any of the previous six.”

More obstruction in the Senate, Rikleen argues, would delay harmful Trump administration actions, particularly those which require Senate-confirmed officials to sign off on them, such as wide-ranging cuts to services for disabled students pushed through by Education Secretary Linda McMahon.

MD-05

Volunteer firefighter and emergency services consultant Harry Jarin has launched a primary challenge to Rep. Steny Hoyer, who stepped aside as House Democrats’ longtime #2 in 2023. Jarin’s message is very simple: the 85-year-old Hoyer is too old for the job and needs to step aside. Jarin may struggle to break through against Hoyer as a white man in a district where most Democrats are Black—but then again, Hoyer is also white.

In addition to challenging Hoyer for his age, Jarin wants to reassert Congress’s authority as a branch of government and a check on the executive, improve public transit in the DC exurbs of Southern Maryland, and implement universal healthcare. He also wants Democrats to adjust to the 21st-century media environment, criticizing Hoyer to Politico as follows:

“Steny is still operating in this 1980s information environment where maybe he does some media hits and he stands on the floor of the House and makes a speech to an empty chamber and nobody’s watching,” he said. “We’re not reaching young voters.”

On that point, I couldn’t agree more.

Minneapolis City Council

DFL ward caucuses have wrapped up in Minneapolis, meaning the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsements in city council races are finalized. The party endorsement in Minnesota carries a lot of weight with voters and comes with access to party resources and branding; as a result, progressives and moderates both fiercely contest the caucuses. The DFL has endorsed the following:

• Council President Elliott Payne in Ward 1, a member of the council’s progressive faction
• Nobody in Ward 2 (held by independent socialist Robin Wonsley; the non-endorsement is a victory for Wonsley, also a member of the progressive faction)
• Council Member Michael Rainville in Ward 3, a member of the council’s moderate/conservative faction
• Council Member LaTrisha Vetaw in Ward 4, a member of the council’s moderate/conservative faction
• Nobody in Ward 5, currently held by outgoing progressive Jeremiah Ellison
• Council Member Jamal Osman in Ward 6, a swing vote more aligned with the progressives
• Minneapolis Park Commissioner Elizabeth Shaffer in Ward 7, held by progressive incumbent Katie Cashman; Shaffer winning would flip a seat to the moderates
• Activist Soren Stevenson in Ward 8, held by retiring former Council President Andrea Jenkins, a leader of the moderate/conservative faction; Stevenson winning would flip a seat to the progressives
• Council Member Jason Chavez in Ward 9, a democratic socialist and member of the council’s progressive faction
• Nobody in Ward 10, currently held by democratic socialist Aisha Chughtai, who faces a challenge from moderate/conservative Lydia Millard
• Attorney Jamison Whiting in Ward 11, held by retiring swing vote Emily Koski; Whiting is somewhat moderate and currently works as a police reform attorney for the city of Minneapolis
• Council Member Aurin Chowdhury in Ward 12, a democratic socialist and member of the council’s progressive faction

Council Member Linea Palmisano in Ward 13, a member of the council’s moderate/conservative factionThe convention results are a mixed bag no matter what side you're on. Chughtai and Cashman losing the endorsements are both major blows for the Minneapolis left, but Stevenson gives them a chance to make up ground.

NJ-Gov

Rep. Mikie Sherrill asked her super PAC for help—using the shady-but-inescapable practice of redboxing, where candidates publicly signal to super PACs what they want to see in ads in order to get around prohibitions on direct coordination between campaigns and super PACs—in a baffling way, and she got her wish. Remember the “Totally Exonerated. No Wrongdoing.” ad? Let me refresh your memory:

Yeah, that. That ad—Georgia Republican Sen. David Perdue’s infamous response ad to allegations of insider trading in his unsuccessful 2020-2021 reelection race—became a meme, because it’s a memorably terrible example of what not to do when responding to allegations of ethical improprieties: address them directly but vaguely with a TV ad that just makes viewers wonder what exactly you’re trying to hide. Mikie Sherrill asked a super PAC to run a version of this ad for her—and they obliged. Here’s the transcript, per the New Jersey Globe’s Zach Blackburn:

“Same old politicians. Same old playbook. Lying about Mikie Sherrill for political gain. The truth? Independent news sources praise Mikie Sherrill’s ethical standards, saying she went ‘above and beyond.’ When Trump and Musk threatened New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill stood her ground, named as one of Musk’s top critics. That’s Mikie Sherrill. Navy helicopter pilot. Federal prosecutor. Mom of four. Mikie Sherrill’s ready to protect New Jersey. Mikie Sherrill for governor.”

For context, Sherrill has been criticized by several of her opponents for donations she previously took from SpaceX’s PAC (since donated to charity), as well as for a considerable increase in her net worth during her time in Congress. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney was the first candidate to make this line of attack explicit, but Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was the first to spend on attack ads with it, and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and an allied super PAC soon followed; the attack also led to an awkward, halting interview segment on The Breakfast Club, as Charlamagne Tha God probed Sherrill about the issue. While this ad doesn’t repeat the attacks word for word the way Perdue’s ad did, it’s still likely to have the effect of alerting a disengaged voter to the fact that there are criticisms being made of Mikie Sherrill’s ethics. The Sherrill super PAC, One Giant Leap, is putting more than $1 million behind the English-language version of this ad, as well as six figures behind a Spanish ad that is a generic positive spot.

Uber is wading into the gubernatorial race in an odd way: spending money on behalf of multiple candidates, including Sherrill ($500,000) and Fulop ($1,000,000) as well as likely Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli ($500,000). The tech giant wants to lower its own insurance rates but doesn’t seem sure who’s the best bet to do it—or, more likely, they aren’t confident in the outcome of the Democratic primary and want to hedge their bets in case Fulop upsets Sherrill. The Sierra Club, meanwhile, is placing a safer bet, belatedly backing Sherrill several months after conducting its endorsement interviews; liberal but machine-friendly interest groups like the Sierra Club ironically have more to lose and less to gain from challenging the machine than even Silicon Valley megacorporations, and if the Sierra Club was happy about this endorsement I think they would've done it earlier.

NYC Mayor

A fair bit of news happened this week in the New York City mayoral race: major endorsements, surprising polling, debate eligibility cutoffs, and fundraising milestones. I’ll address each in order.

First, the endorsements: opposition to the comeback campaign of disgraced ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo coalesced a little this week, as NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and the Working Families Party each issued ranked endorsements, offering strategic guidance to undecided voters about how to fill out their ballots. Williams ranked both City Comptroller Brad Lander and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams first, followed by Queens Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani. The WFP, which had previously issued a four-way unranked endorsement, ranked candidates as follows:

1. Zohran Mamdani
2. Brad Lander
3. Adrienne Adams
4. Brooklyn state Sen. Zellnor Myrie
5. Queens state Sen. Jessica Ramos, who WFP had not previously endorsed for mayor

A pair of polls released this week suggest that Mamdani’s upstart campaign may be surging at the right time. An internal poll from the Mamdani campaign found him trailing Cuomo 40%-27% in the first round and 56%-44% in ranked-choice voting—the closest anyone has polled to Cuomo in a while. And if you’re skeptical because that’s an internal poll, this next one isn’t: Emerson College finds Cuomo leading Mamdani by a slightly narrower 35%-23% in the first round and 54%-46% in ranked-choice voting. Both polls find Lander, Adams, and other candidates bunched up in the very low double digits or high single digits.

While Ramos got some much-needed good news for her struggling campaign in the form of the WFP ranked endorsement, she also got bad news: she won’t be making the stage at the second officially sanctioned Democratic debate. Along with former Bronx Assemblymember Michael Blake, Ramos made the cut for the first debate, which only screens out candidates who fail to raise a certain amount, but not the second debate, which has a much higher fundraising threshold as well as an alternative polling threshold; Ramos and Blake both failed to clear the thresholds for the second debate. (Everyone else mentioned in this item will be present at both debates, as will two other candidates: former City Comptroller Scott Stringer and conservative hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson.)

The New York City Campaign Finance Board, which administers the city’s public campaign funds matching program, had good news for Adrienne Adams and bad news for Cuomo this week. Adams was awarded $2 million in matching funds, a massive infusion of cash for a late entrant into the mayoral race; donations from city residents can be matched up to 8-to-1, and Adams finally hit her stride in fundraising this period (helped along by an unsolicited but surely welcome boost from Mamdani, who steered about $18,000 in direct contributions—and six figures in matching funds—to Adams through a social media video asking viewers to donate to her campaign before the matching funds deadline a couple weeks ago.) Cuomo, meanwhile, got penalized $675,000 for unlawful coordination with a PAC funded by prominent real estate magnates and wacko Trump donors like Bill Ackman, the second time the board withheld a large sum of money from the Cuomo campaign for improper coordination with the PAC Fix the City.

VA-11

Two new candidates entered the race for the late Rep. Gerry Connolly’s vacant, safely Democratic Fairfax County House seat this week. Both are lawyers, but one is more notable for other work: former Venezuelan opposition legislator and DNC member Leo Martínez, the founding board chair of the Latino Victory Project and a nominee for a foreign policy position in the Biden administration. Martínez says his past in the Venezuelan opposition—he ultimately fled the country in 2004 with his family—motivates him to run in opposition to the second Trump administration’s authoritarianism. Also joining the race is corporate lawyer Amy Roma, a partner at the major firm Hogan Lovells who specializes in nuclear energy law. Roma, a first-time candidate who also cites the Trump administration’s rising authoritarianism as a motivation for running, has also done a wide variety of humanitarian work, including on behalf of immigrants at the Mexican border and Afghan refugees fleeing the fall of Kabul.

WA-09

Rep. Adam Smith is clearly weak to a primary challenge from his left. (The top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee is not to be confused with the 18th-century Scottish economist and philosopher.) His district is blue enough and left-leaning enough that under Washington’s top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters in the August primary advance to the November general election regardless of party preference, he regularly faces a leftist running as a Democrat rather than a Republican. In fact, the last Democrat to face Smith in a general election, activist Melissa Chaudhry, has already filed for a rematch after losing 66%-33% in November 2024 (in a race which got no attention from national progressive groups, to be fair, but oof.) It could very well be that a new candidate is needed to take down Smith. But I’m not sure Kshama Sawant is what anyone was asking for.

(How do you explain Kshama Sawant in a sentence? Here goes.)

The controversial former city councilor garnered national attention from the start of her career more than a decade ago, when she ran—and won—a long-shot, hard-left campaign organized by the tiny left-wing party Socialist Alternative for an at-large seat on the Seattle City Council, unseating an incumbent with a platform centered around the then-controversial push to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour.

(Shit. Okay. Two sentences.)

On the council for a decade, Sawant fought for, and won, that minimum wage hike, as well as a sweeping tax on large employers such as Amazon to raise revenue for social services, and held her seat in the face of repeated, ludicrously well-funded campaigns to unseat her—all while aggravating would-be allies with odd stunts and frequently belligerent third-party activism, culminating in her bewildering retirement from the city council to...start a leftist podcast.

That was in 2023. Now Sawant is back, filing with the FEC for an independent run against Smith in 2026. (She broke up with SAlt recently, which is a shame for them since she was their whole deal.) Buckle up; this is gonna be weird.