Issue 17

Apologies again for the delay in getting this issue out. One day I'll eventually budget the correct amount of time. Also, like last week, I'm still raising money for New Jersey Democratic Assembly candidates who will put the money to good use, and you can donate here; as of this writing, we've raised $7,783.69. Multiple campaigns have reached out to say thanks, so your generosity is being noticed.

CA-Gov

The field of Democratic candidates for governor of California gained one and lost one since I last wrote you. Likely more consequential is the candidate who dropped out, former Senate President Toni Atkins; Atkins chose to drop out because she consistently polled in the single digits and, in her own words, didn’t see a “viable path forward to victory.” Atkins had a large campaign bank account and the modest geographic advantage of being the only candidate from the San Diego area, but due to her poor polling, her departure likely doesn’t change too much other than where the money is flowing. It still probably changes more than the entry of former Assemblyman Ian Calderon, the scion of a Los Angeles political dynasty; Calderon is explicitly running to the center and staking his candidacy on the issue of cryptocurrency, hoping to win the financial support of the very same Silicon Valley ghouls and parasites who have been running amok in Washington for the past nine months and counting. Fuck that.

CA-32

Encino Neighborhood Councilor Josh Sautter is the latest candidate to challenge Rep. Brad Sherman, joining Biden administration official Jake Levine and self-funding former Sherman staffer Jake Rakov, who appears to be backed by the cryptocurrency industry. (Sherman, a mostly disappointing Democrat with a seriously awful streak on foreign policy, is nevertheless one of Congress’s most vocal critics of the cryptocurrency industry and has been for years.) Currently, Sautter’s campaign consists of a Substack, but I presume more is to come.

HI-01

A second challenger has decided to take on Blue Dog Rep. Ed Case, one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, for his seat representing the urban core of Honolulu. State Rep. Della Au Belatti kicked off her campaign this week, attacking Case for failing to stand up to the Trump administration and especially highlighting his vote for the GOP’s SAVE Act, which ostensibly requires proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections (it is already the case that only citizens may vote in federal elections) but in reality throws up a variety of roadblocks to voting and dramatically alters the landscape of federal elections. Already running against Case is state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, who announced a campaign last month.

IL-07

The massive healthcare union SEIU has endorsed one of its own leaders, SEIU Illinois State Council Executive Director Anthony Driver Jr., to succeed retiring Rep. Danny Davis in this safely blue Chicago seat. Driver, who has also served as the first President of Chicago’s civilian police review board, the Community Commission on Public Safety and Accountability, is one of many candidates competing to succeed Davis in this district, which connects the predominantly Black, working-class South and West Sides with the affluent, mostly white Chicago Loop and leafy liberal suburbs like Oak Park; having SEIU in his corner will help him prove viability early, and may get more labor unions to take a look at him over more established options like Davis’s choice—state Rep. La Shawn Ford—or Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.

IL-08

Former Rep. Melissa Bean is out with a poll that shows what is, theoretically, good news for the Blue Dog Democrat: she leads a crowded field of Democratic candidates with 10% of the vote. But to me, that’s pretty obviously just a function of name recognition–and it doesn’t bode well for the former congresswoman that 2022 primary loser Junaid Ahmed, a progressive who lost to incumbent Rep. and current Senate candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi in a 70-30 landslide, is close behind Bean at 8%. Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison takes 5%, and Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole takes 3%.

IL-09

Finally, the number of candidates for IL-09 is going down rather than up. Evanston activist Miracle Jenkins has dropped out and endorsed Skokie school board member Bushra Amiwala, narrowing the field of candidates to, I don’t know man, like 20 or something.

MA-Sen

While Boston Rep. Ayanna Pressley hasn’t made any noise publicly about taking on fellow progressive Sen. Ed Markey, she also isn’t ruling it out, even when directly asked—as recently as this past week, according to Politico’s Kelly Garrity. Centrist North Shore Rep. Seth Moulton, who is weirdly obsessed with trans children, is openly mulling a run as well. Markey, 80, is publicly committed to reelection—but the biggest asterisk is his age, and whether he’ll really be in shape to run again (or serve again) for the next six years.

MI-13

In his challenge to Detroit Rep. Shri Thanedar, progressive state Rep. Donavan McKinney was already backed by Justice Democrats and a number of Detroit-area Democratic elected officials, including Detroit’s other U.S. Representative, Rashida Tlaib. Now, he’s backed by the entire spectrum of the Black Detroit establishment, it seems. Centrist former Rep. Brenda Lawrence, Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, and progressive Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist jointly endorsed McKinney's challenge to Thanedar this past week. With former state Sen. Adam Hollier now out of the race (running for Secretary of State instead), there’s only one prominent alternative to Thanedar, mooting the thorny question of which candidate to unite behind.

MN-Sen

A majority of the Minnesota House DFL caucus has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive from Minneapolis whose relationship with Gov. Tim Walz has frayed, for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, herself a former lieutenant governor. This week, Flanagan also secured the backing of SEIU Minnesota, which represents 70,000 Minnesota workers. Flanagan’s main primary opponent is centrist suburban Rep. Angie Craig, whose district takes in the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs; Craig has a large financial advantage, but these endorsements for Flanagan indicate she’s still got a fight on her hands.

MN-02

State Rep. Kaela Berg has announced a campaign for Angie Craig’s open House seat, with the backing of EMILY’s List, the Democratic fundraising and super PAC giant that supports women candidates. (Berg is—unsurprisingly, given EMILY’s List’s involvement—the first and so far only woman in the race.) Despite having the support of a giant in mainstream Democratic politics, there’s a lot for progressives and skeptics of the Democratic Party establishment to like about Berg, a 2016 Sanders delegate and union organizer; she is also a single mother who still works as a flight attendant. Besides, both major candidates currently running on the Democratic side—state Sen. Matt Klein and former state Sen. Matt Little—are decidedly centrist.

MO-01

Former Rep. Cori Bush, a democratic socialist who upset then-Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020, is reportedly planning a rematch with Rep. Wesley Bell, who unseated her in 2024. Bell, previously St. Louis County’s elected chief prosecutor, was backed extensively by AIPAC, which bristled at Bush’s criticism of Israel, as well as other centrist groups which simply didn’t like her for being one of the furthest-left members of Congress. Bush has been hiring staff and an announcement is imminent, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The former congresswoman lost her seat to Bell by a 51-46 margin—not a nailbiter, but close enough that the radically different political environment of 2026, with an apparent surge in anti-incumbent, anti-establishment sentiment, could foreseeably produce a different result.

NY-12

Upper West Side Assemblyman Micah Lasher has yet to be formally endorsed by retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, the kingmaker of Manhattan politics and Lasher’s mentor, but it’s pretty clear where the Nadler orbit is going in the race to succeed him. Lasher rolled out endorsements from a number of Nadler allies, including several who would have been strong congressional candidates themselves: state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal, Assemblymember Linda Rosenthal, City Council Members Gale Brewer and Shaun Abreu, former City Comptroller Scott Stringer, and former Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger. Lasher will be the man to beat in this race—but he won’t go unopposed, as a number of other candidates are running (such as Gen Z nonprofit founder Liam Elkind, who has the blessing of LinkedIn billionaire Reid Hoffman) or publicly considering (Assemblymember Alex Bores, City Council Member Erik Bottcher, Kennedy failson Jack Schlossberg).

RI-Gov

Rhode Island AG Peter Neronha would upend the gubernatorial race, were he to run. Unlike the two declared candidates, unpopular incumbent Gov. Dan McKee and former CVS executive Helena Buonanno Foulkes, and the other major potential candidate, House Speaker Joe Shekarchi, Neronha is a reasonably consistent liberal who has used his office to take the Trump administration to court and needle McKee on the issues of corruption and transparency, particularly relating to the highly disruptive, highly controversial 2024 failure of the bridge connecting Rhode Island’s eastern fringe with downtown Providence. And he’s still considering a run, with a decision sometime this month, according to a new interview with the Boston Globe.

Meanwhile, a new poll shows Foulkes leading McKee 35%-19% in a head-to-head (no Shekarchi, no Neronha.)

NYC Mayor

America’s weirdest mayor is no longer running for reelection. In a bizarre 10-minute video message, Mayor Eric Adams announced he would end his third-party bid for reelection, taking thinly-veiled shots at Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani but without endorsing either of Mamdani’s remaining rivals, actual Republican Curtis Sliwa or de facto Republican Andrew Cuomo. As Republicans and billionaires panic about the likely election of Mamdani, a socialist assemblyman from Queens who pulled off a stunning upset of Cuomo in the primary, one priority has been consolidating the field of Mamdani alternatives; center-right independent Jim Walden dropped out at the beginning of September, and now Adams is out as well. The problem for Mamdani’s foes is that the Democratic nominee is polling near 50%, and there’s little chance that Sliwa drops out, considering that Sliwa himself says he’s rejected a number of bribes to get him out of the race. (Sliwa also got the endorsement of Democratic Assemblymember Jaime Williams, a conservative Democrat representing a heavily Democratic district in eastern Brooklyn, in yet another sign that anti-Mamdani forces cannot get their act together.)

Meanwhile, Donald Trump threatened New York City’s federal funding in the event Mamdani is elected—then pulled the funding anyway this morning, seemingly voiding the threat and reinforcing a point Mamdani would like to have on voters’ minds: the White House hates New York City, and New York City needs a mayor who hates them right back.

Seattle Mayor

Progressive transit activist Katie Wilson shocked observers when she led incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell 51%-41% in the August first round of Seattle’s top-two nonpartisan elections; seen as almost a protest candidate before the August primary, Wilson suddenly seems not just viable but at least a slight favorite to oust Harrell in November. Even those who work full-time in Seattle politics have had to radically shift their assessments of the race since August, and that reassessment seems to be what motivated the King County Labor Council, also known as MLK Labor, to vote to convert their sole endorsement of Harrell into a joint endorsement of Harrell and Wilson. MLK Labor is the Seattle-area arm of the AFL-CIO, and its endorsements are a powerful signal to voters in heavily unionized Washington, as well as to late-deciding labor unions who have yet to endorse in the mayoral race. Harrell, for his part, was endorsed by Pete Buttigieg, which…I guess helps him somewhat, but how a former Transportation Secretary is supposed to rescue the campaign of a mayor whose opponent got a majority of the first-round vote is beyond me.

DC Ward 1

It’s now official: progressive stalwart Brianne Nadeau is retiring from the DC Council after three terms, potentially clearing the way for democratic socialist and labor organizer Aparna Raj in the left lane of next year’s Democratic primary for Ward 1. (It was unlikely that Metro DC DSA would have launched a campaign for Ward 1 without advance knowledge of Nadeau’s impending retirement.) Raj is off to a strong start with the backing of several DC labor unions, including locals representing Metro workers and District employees.