FEC Roundup #2

One minor change from the last FEC roundup: I'm now going to be breaking out transfers from other authorized committees in Senate roundups, because in Senate races, there are a lot of representatives with House campaign accounts they can transfer to the Senate race, but they don't indicate anything about present or future fundraising ability, only past fundraising ability.

Senate

IL-Sen

Centrist, pro-crypto Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi looks like the candidate to beat at this early stage of the Illinois Senate race. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s fundraising was strong, but dwarfed by Krishnamoorthi’s, and Krishnamoorthi also has his massive House campaign account, which he’s only partially transferred to his Senate account. Rep. Robin Kelly is lagging behind in fundraising, but transferred her House balance to her Senate campaign, giving her a head start on Stratton.

MA-Sen

Progressive Sen. Ed Markey is full steam ahead on reelection despite turning 80 next year, and centrist, pro-crypto Rep. Jake Auchincloss is clearly saving up for a statewide campaign—possibly next year against Markey. Challenger Alex Rikleen is struggling to get off the ground.

MI-Sen

Rep. Haley Stevens has the most money to work with as of June 30, but she’s actually the weakest fundraiser in the field—the centrist AIPAC favorite raised well, to be sure, but Sanders-endorsed progressive firebrand Abdul El-Sayed raised $500,000 more than Stevens did, and liberal grassroots star Mallory McMorrow, a state senator from Oakland County, raised the most of all, though she also had the highest burn rate by far. Both El-Sayed and McMorrow thrived on small donors, a renewable source of campaign donations, while Stevens was more reliant on large donors, a less renewable source as large donors hit the federal maximum contribution, and transfers from her House campaign, a one-time source of funds.

MN-Sen

Centrist Rep. Angie Craig is clearly going to be the frontrunner for now, but progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is raising quite well herself and should have what she needs to put up a fight.

NH-Sen

Nobody is moving to take on centrist Rep. Chris Pappas in the primary, but he’s gearing up for an expensive campaign anyway.

House

CA-11

I don’t know how sustainable that burn rate is for Saikat Chakrabarti, AOC’s former chief of staff, since fundraising is serving as a supplement to self-funding for him so far; he’s not raising poorly, but the real money is coming out of his own pocket. (Chakrabarti has a background in tech.) Nancy Pelosi does most of her fundraising for other candidates, but she still raises a lot for herself and will have functionally unlimited money to play with if she decides Chakrabarti requires a response.

CA-32

Jake Rakov’s challenge to his former boss is, like Chakrabarti’s challenge to Pelosi, mostly funded by the candidate so far—but also like Chakrabarti, he’s now demonstrated a willingness to actually spend a substantial amount of the money he’s loaned his campaign, so I’m more willing to view that self-funding as real money. (Some self-funders will make large loans to their campaigns, catch some press attention for the eye-popping quarterly haul, and then back out of a run and repay the loan rather than actually part with the money.)

FL-20

Speaking of loan repayments, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick funded her own successful 2021 campaign to win a special election to succeed the late Rep. Alcee Hastings—but now her financial situation may be dicier as she faces investigations into whether she obtained that money legally, and the congresswoman paid herself back $5,800 this quarter. Gen Z progressive challenger Elijah Manley has an unsustainable burn rate, but this is his second quarter raising more than $200k, and Cherfilus-McCormick does not have enough stockpiled to meaningfully outspend him even if she were to match his fundraising, which she isn’t doing.

FL-23

Alright, why the hell did Rep. Jared Moskowitz do the same loan repayment thing for $15,000? What’s his deal?

GA-13

Blue Dog Rep. David Scott, recently deposed from his job leading the Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee due to concerns over his age, got outraised by not one, not two, but three different challengers—including state Sen. Emanuel Jones, whose weak fundraising haul last quarter made me doubt his seriousness, as well as two new candidates, state Rep. Jasmine Clark and former Gwinnett County School Board Chair Everton Blair. A candidate pileup here hurts rather than helps Scott, as Georgia requires runoffs in primaries where no candidate achieves a majority of the vote; more alternatives means more chances to drive Scott below 50%. Attorneys Ron McKenzie and Carlos Moore also raised non-trivial sums.

IL-02

Democratic socialist state Sen. Robert Peters is off to a formidable head start, but Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, who has the potential to be a strong opponent, didn’t enter the race until after the quarter ended.

IL-07

Rep. Danny Davis is mailing it in as usual, and real estate heir Jason Friedman raised a whopping $1 million without counting his self-funding. State Rep. La Shawn Ford is waiting to see what Davis does.

IL-08

Businessman Neil Khot and progressive former primary challenger Junaid Ahmed are outpacing more established candidates in the race, including a pair of elected officials (Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison and Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole.)

IL-09

Journalist and influencer Kat Abughazaleh’s $375,000 launch week was more than a flash in the pan, as she raised more than half a million in this quarter and now has the most cash on hand of anyone in the race. Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss outraised Abughazaleh and is near even with her in cash on hand, while state Sen. Laura Fine and Skokie school board member Bushra Amiwala are in a second tier. Activists Miracle Jenkins and Justin Ford and attorney Howard Rosenblum are further behind, but raising enough for me to put them on the board—particularly Rosenblum, whose nearly $50k haul came in about a week.

IN-07

Political consultant George Hornedo is raising decent money, but Rep. André Carson is still doing better.

MA-08

Conservative Rep. Stephen Lynch got outraised pretty badly by Patrick Roath, an attorney who has worked for former Gov. Deval Patrick and sat on the board of Common Cause.

MD-05

Small business owner and volunteer firefighter Harry Jarin raised a bit of money and self-funded more—but he’ll have to spend it if he wants to have a chance at unseating Steny Hoyer, the 86-year-old former #2 House Democrat.

MI-11

State Sen. Jeremy Moss seems to be on a glide path to Congress, and his fundraising reflects that.

MI-13

Rep. Shri Thanedar’s campaign’s investment portfolio had a good quarter, allowing him to add considerably to his already-overstuffed campaign bank account, but former state Sen. Adam Hollier and progressive state Rep. Donavan McKinney each had healthy fundraising quarters of their own.

MN-02

It’s a battle of centrist Minnesota Matts, and they’re also close to even in fundraising. Boring!

NH-01

Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen are both raising crazy money, but Hampton Select Board member Carleigh Beriont is raising serious money too, so at least one more progressive option appears potentially viable at this time. The other three candidates either entered late (Christian Urrutia and Sarah Chadzynski) or are only in the exploratory stage (state Rep. Alice Wade.)

TX-18

Christian Menefee, favored by progressives and much of the Houston establishment, is also the fundraising leader for the second quarter in a row, though former TX-18 primary challenger Amanda Edwards, who has always been a strong fundraiser, is also raising a lot. State Rep. Jolanda Jones lags behind but is raising enough to be a factor, as is Gen Z establishment Democratic activist Isaiah Martin.