The FEC roundup and this week's regular issue are, indeed, on their way—but first, I have an extra bit of content for you real campaign finance sickos. I'm pretty sure I'm the only person who reads New Jersey campaign finance reports in detail, aside from the people who write them, and now I'm inflicting that upon you, and (some of) you are paying me for it. The first pre-election reporting deadline came and went on October 6 (but many reports didn't populate until October 10), and I've spent this week chewing on the data from competitive races for the state Assembly, the lower house of the New Jersey Legislature. (The state Senate is not up this year, aside from a special election for safely Democratic LD-35, based in Paterson.) Here, uh, here are my thoughts, I guess. If you like this, I do something similar (but with a more view-from-30,000-feet approach) at every FEC quarterly reporting deadline, the most recent having just passed on October 15; this email is being sent to all subscribers (in part because I feel bad about past missed issues and want to give you some free shit to compensate), but the regular FEC roundup (I also try to do them for every pre-primary deadline, not just the uniform quarterly reports) is sort of the entire point of the $8/month/$80/year price tier. So, if you want to get that in your inbox, sign up for that tier.

Big Picture

New Jersey Democrats currently have a comfortable majority in the state Assembly, with clear opportunities for growth. However, under the hood, things aren’t so secure; seven Democrats represent districts won by Donald Trump in 2024, and another eight, including Speaker Craig Coughlin, are defending districts Kamala Harris won by less than five points. While Coughlin himself is in little danger (Republicans sort of forgot to run real candidates against him despite his district lurching right in 2024), his grip on the speaker’s gavel is at risk: if he loses enough seats, he could face a leadership challenge, with the most leadership-friendly right flank of his caucus shorn off by Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli’s coattails—or he could lose the majority outright, though that would require Republicans to run the table in Trump and narrow Harris districts. Additionally, the next Assembly will have a new crop of independent Democrats who won their primaries without party backing; currently, every Democrat in the Assembly was hand-picked by party leaders, but that will change when Ed Rodriguez, Katie Brennan, Ravi Bhalla, and Kenyatta Stewart take office representing the safely Democratic legislative districts where they won Assembly nominations this year. A world where Coughlin needs some or all of those four to remain speaker is a world where Democrats’ legislative agenda could look very different—and I personally can’t rule out the possibility that Coughlin, or another machine Democrat, would rather rely on Republican votes than cut a deal with progressive reformers like Brennan and Bhalla. It's gotten some media attention that Democrats in Trenton are nervous about Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill—but little attention has been paid to Democrats' apparent nervousness about the state Assembly.

There’s also some boring context that you’ll need to understand everything that follows this. In New Jersey, each legislative district elects one senator and two assemblypeople; the Senate was last up in 2023, and only the Assembly is up this year. Assembly candidates all run on one ballot—it’s not Republican 1 vs. Democrat 1 (as is the case in Washington), it’s both Republicans against both Democrats. This is how some districts have split delegations: the dueling Assembly tickets run so close together that the best-performing Democrat and the best-performing Republican each end up leaving their running mates behind. Another feature of New Jersey politics is joint candidate committees: candidates can, but are not required to, establish joint committees, which allows them to coordinate and consolidate spending (and messaging) with their running mates. Most incumbent assemblypeople have joint committees with their seatmates, and most of them use the joint committee rather than their individual committees for most expenses; some raise their money individually but pool their spending by transferring funds to the joint committee, so I’ve made sure I only count each dollar once, and I’ve tried to subtract out expenditures improperly classified as operating expenditures.

For each district item, I include a chart showing (from left to right) the fundraising, spending, and cash on hand of each individual and joint committee active in the race. The first column is the candidate or joint committee, the second is the total raised, the third is the total spent on the campaign, and the fourth is cash on hand. All of these reports cover the period beginning June 28 and ending October 3—essentially, the third quarter of 2025, plus a couple days on each side. If you want to mentally compare these to FEC quarterly numbers, just keep in mind that the districts here are about one-third the size of a congressional district.

The Battlegrounds

There are some districts that could arguably go on here that I decided to leave off, and I’ll briefly discuss each here. LD-16, in Central Jersey, is a district Harris won by double digits where Democrats are spending like they’re scared; I think they are foolish and wrong to worry about LD-16, even in a world where Jack Ciattarelli (who represented LD-16 more than a decade ago) wins the governor's race. Democrats in LD-23, which runs from Bound Brook to the Pennsylvania border, are running a real campaign; however, LD-23 is a Trump+10 seat that’s redder downballot. LD-26 is similar to LD-25, which I included, in almost every way, except LD-26 is a few points redder. And LD-33 is a right-trending urban seat in northern Hudson County where a powerful local boss, Nick Sacco, has defected to the GOP; I left it out because I ultimately think Sacco has a lot less juice than Brian Stack, Sacco’s nemesis and the other North Hudson boss.

LD-02

Harris+1.6

Atlantic City and suburbs

LD-02 should be a battleground by any measure. At the federal level, Kamala Harris’s performance in this district is one of the worst Democratic performances of the 21st century—and she still won it. However, due to horrific off-year turnout problems in low-income Atlantic City and Pleasantville and a messy, conservative local Democratic machine, Democrats never really fought to regain this perpetual swing district after losing it in 2021. They aren’t fighting too hard this time, either, and Republican incumbents Claire Swift and Don Guardian are spending like they want to stick around. I’d come up with a clever gambling pun about this race, but to be worth the effort it would require Democrats to bet on Atlantic City—which they’re not doing.

LD-03

Trump+7.4

Philadelphia exurbs and rural South Jersey

This seat has history. A predominantly white working-class slice of South Jersey, it was represented in the state Senate by Senate President Steve Sweeney until his now-infamous upset loss to far-right Republican trucker Ed Durr in 2021. Though Sweeney never tried for a comeback, preferring instead to focus on his doomed 2025 gubernatorial bid, local Democrats in the heart of the South Jersey machine immediately got to work fighting to regain LD-03, and in 2023 they did so, flipping the Senate seat and both Assembly seats in one fell swoop with a ticket led by former Assemblyman John Burzichelli. Now, with the better-known Burzichelli off the ballot, his running mates Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey have to hang on in a district that has turned stubbornly red in the Trump era. They’re spending like they’re very nervous—and if Jack Ciattarelli’s performance in South Jersey is anything like his 2021 landslide down south, it probably won’t matter, because gubernatorial coattails should sink them in a district this red. They’ll put up a fight and probably outperform both Harris and Sherrill, but even six figures in advertising—which they have already easily surpassed—is probably not enough to save this seat.

LD-04

Harris+1.6

Philadelphia suburbs to the Pine Barrens

New Jersey Democrats also panicked about the state Assembly in 2023 (panic that turned out to be unwarranted due to Democrats’ newfound edge with voters who turn out in off-off-year elections like 2023’s legislature-only statewide election.) This district was one of a couple where they panicked and played hard defense, and they were probably most right to do so here: incumbents Cody Miller and Dan Hutchison only won 53%-46%, boosted by a conservative spoiler candidate put up by the South Jersey machine. 2023 GOP candidate Amanda Esposito is back for a rematch with a new running mate, Winslow Township School Board Member Jerry McManus. Esposito and McManus aren’t flush with cash—but Miller and Hutchison are sweating anyway. If Democrats are having a bad night in South Jersey, this seat will be a good early barometer—it normally counts faster than nearby LD-08 and is not an evenly matched race.

LD-08

Harris+1.1

Central Burlington County to the Pine Barrens

In 2023, South Jersey Democrats decided they were going to fight for LD-08, which had up to that point had a stubbornly resilient all-Republican legislative delegation (save for a brief time when moderate Republican Sen. Dawn Addiego switched parties, then lost reelection as a Democrat to Republican now-Sen. Latham Tiver.) They picked a ticket, loaded up the money cannon, and fought the seat’s two Republican incumbents, Michael Torrissi and Brandon Umba, to a draw—almost exactly. Torrissi finished in first, and Umba in last; the Democratic ticket of former Chesterfield councilwoman Andrea Katz and Hammonton Education Association President Anthony Angelozzi placed second and third; and the gap between Torrissi in first and Umba in fourth was less than 500 votes. Torrissi won reelection but lost his running mate, and Katz proved that Democrats could win LD-08 in state races. Now, it’s a four-way rematch: Umba wants his old job back, and Angelozzi wants what he so nearly got in 2023.

LD-11

Harris+4.3

Jersey Shore; Long Branch to Freehold

Moderate-to-conservative state Sen. Vin Gopal may no longer be the chair of the Monmouth County Democratic Party, but he’s been the de facto Democratic county boss ever since he was just an ambitious county chair who wanted to flip Republican Jennifer Beck’s state Senate seat. In 2015, Gopal ran, won, and quickly established a local machine just as formidable as the Republican machine he had upset. However, Gopal was caught off guard by Ciattarelli’s strength south of the Driscoll Bridge in 2021; the Republican’s coattails that year sank both of Gopal’s Assembly running mates, and Gopal only survived because of his own personal brand. Gopal bounced back in no time, though, tapping Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul as his candidates to reclaim LD-11’s Assembly seats in 2023; he romped to a 20-point reelection victory that year and carried them both over the finish line. Republicans here are trying with the money they have—and Gopal, who still informally runs the campaign despite not being on the ballot this year, is going to spend more than a million dollars defending this seat.

LD-21

Harris+12.2

Affluent train station suburbs southwest of Newark

Due to a combination of friendship with Republican incumbents (one of whom, in the past, was now-Congressman Tom Kean Jr.) and a disbelief in this area’s Trump-era political shift being real, Democrats haven’t aggressively contested LD-21 until this year, and even then, their hand was forced. While this district used to be the Republican heartland, voting for Mitt Romney by a solid margin and preferring Republicans for state and local office, that changed in the Trump years, as the area voted for Hillary Clinton and never looked back. Even as newfound Democratic partisanship brought down a number of local Republican mayors, local Democrats passed on this seat again and again. Finally, Andrew Macurdy, a lawyer and organizer for Andy Kim’s anti-machine Senate campaign, got tired of waiting and decided to run with or without the support of the local party; Macurdy quickly proved to be a serious candidate who could very plausibly run strong enough to sink both Republicans, and so local machine Democrats scrambled to install one of their own as Macurdy’s running mate. They landed on Garwood Councilman Vinnie Kearney, a social media pugilist from a purple town, and are investing even more heavily in Kearney than Macurdy, who is largely fundraising on his own (granted, about $60,000 of his total this period is from the state party; that’s just very little compared to Kearney, who is getting virtually all of his money from various party organs and county boss Nick Scutari, the state Senate President.)

LD-25

Trump+0.5

Affluent suburban Morris County

Like LD-21 before it, LD-25 has lurched left in the Trump era—except the starting point was redder, and the shift isn’t quite as severe, so while this district voted for Joe Biden, it narrowly flipped back to Trump in 2024. However, Mikie Sherrill is the popular local congresswoman in most of this district; she has carried Morris County in all four of her congressional races, and she romped here in the gubernatorial primary as well. Additionally, Democrats have contested this district more seriously than LD-21 in the past, coming respectably close in 2017, a 2020 special election, and 2023; further, Barranco is a new face who was shifted into this district in 2023 by redistricting. If Sherrill’s generally lackadaisical campaign is going to have legislative coattails anywhere, this is the first place to look. Democrats Steve Pylypchuk and Marisa Sweeney had a strange path to the nomination: they ran with Steven Fulop’s anti-establishment slate in the primary, but unlike everyone else on that slate outside of hopelessly red districts, they faced no opposition from the local party machinery in the primary. They have little money and have received little attention from state Democrats throughout the campaign—though the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee did pay for a late poll of the district on September 30, which may (or may not) presage future investment.

LD-30

Trump+46.3

Lakewood

This is the weirdest race in a state where every race is weird. Lakewood is a heavily Orthodox Jewish city a few miles inland from the Jersey Shore; it has more than doubled in population this century and now has a population of (estimating conservatively) somewhere around 140,000, most of them Orthodox Jews and about half under the age of 18. Lakewood’s Orthodox Jewish population (which has spilled over into neighboring towns including Howell, which is in this district as well) is almost uniformly Republican in federal elections, but in state elections, they are willing to vote for Democrats by 90+% margins when community leaders feel their community could get something out of the deal. The endorsement of an organization of local leaders, known as the Lakewood Vaad, is a powerful signal to local Orthodox Jewish voters; the Vaad managed to deliver blood-red Lakewood for Phil Murphy in 2017, and greatly reduced Ciattarelli’s margin there in 2021. In 2023, the Lakewood brain trust had a new idea: what if our community used our bloc vote to get one of our own in Trenton? Lakewood leaders settled on popular local leader Avi Schnall, and local Democrats, not exactly having any better options in a district where Democrats otherwise might as well not bother to run, acceded to Schnall’s candidacy. Powered by a ticket-splitting endorsement from the Vaad—which backed Schnall and Republican incumbent Sean Kean—Schnall unseated the district’s other Republican incumbent, Ned Thomson. Schnall is staunchly conservative, but votes with Democrats in leadership elections and other must-pass/must-win votes; in exchange, Lakewood gets a voice in the majority party. Schnall is running for a second term, but Lakewood leaders are not (yet) attempting to secure a second Assembly seat in LD-30; they are leaving Kean alone this year, and Schnall is running apart from the other Democrat, sacrificial lamb Joanne DeBenedictis, a retired teacher from the Shore town of Belmar.

LD-36

Trump+4.6

Southern Bergen County and the city of Passaic

This district has been trucking right for a couple of election cycles now, and finally flipped to Trump in 2024 as Kamala Harris collapsed throughout the district. What’s weird is how unconcerned Gary Schaer and Clinton Calabrese are. True, Schaer is a longtime leader in Passaic’s Orthodox Jewish community and can count on that nearly-uniformly-Trump-voting bloc to cross over for him and his running mate—but the Bergen County portion of this seat is red now, too, and neither Schaer nor Calabrese seems all that alarmed, since they’re each sitting on a mid-six-figures sum of unused cash. Just as LD-25 is the first place to look for Mikie Sherrill having unexpected coattails, LD-36 is the first place to look for Jack Ciattarelli having unexpected coattails; Carlstadt Councilwoman Diane DeBiase and former Lyndhurst school board member Chris Musto are running a real if thinly-resourced campaign, and Schaer and Calabrese could be caught off guard.

LD-38

Trump+0.1

Western and central Bergen County

Lisa Swain and Chris Tully had a close call in 2021, and Republicans seriously challenged them again in 2023, so at this point the pair are battle-tested. They’ll need it, because Republicans Robert Kaiser, a Paramus councilman, and Barry Wilkes, one of the GOP’s 2023 nominees, are just about the only well-funded non-incumbent Republicans anywhere in the state, and this district has shifted hard to the right since the last race—flipping to Trump by a hair in 2024. This is the one North Jersey assembly race where Democrats seem positively afraid of losing—while they are also spending heavily in blue LD-16, that is because of a lingering belief in the area’s past Republican lean, kind of the same attitude that led to these people ignoring LD-21 until this year. (LD-16 is so blue I left it out of this piece; Harris won that district, which contains Princeton, by more than 14 points.)

LD-39

Trump+2.2

Northern Bergen County

Much like LD-25, this is a district that zoomed left in the Trump years but backslid slightly under Biden. Also much like LD-25, state Democrats have largely ignored this race, but local Democrats have tried and come respectably close, most recently with a 54%-46% loss in 2023. Fulop and the county party had dueling slates in the primary here, and voters gave a mixed result: Andrew LaBruno won off Fulop’s slate, but the machine got Donna Abene as the other nominee. Faced with LaBruno on the ticket in a reach seat, the local Democrats promptly wrote off LD-39, but LaBruno is still plugging along on an extremely limited budget. This affluent suburban seat along the New York border is probably going to stay in the Republican column, but it’s another place where I wouldn’t be too surprised for Mikie Sherrill to have unexpected coattails.